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  • Finance 0

    3 Things: Billions Lost, Tax Withholding, Yield Curve

    Companies Lose Billions On Stock Buybacks I recently wrote an article about why “Benchmarking Your Portfolio Is A Losing Bet.” In that missive, I discussed all the things that benefit a mathematically calculated index versus what happens in an actual portfolio of securities. One of those issues was the impact of share buybacks: “The reality is that stock buybacks are a tool used to artificially inflate bottom line earnings per share which, ultimately, drives share prices higher. As John Hussman recently noted: The preferred object of debt-financed speculation, this time around, is the equity market. The recent level of stock margin d...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Orbex Market Report 11-2-16

    Video Length: 00:01:07...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Seeing The Forest For The Trees

    The conundrum that everyone is wrestling with is the euro and yen’s strength given their negative interest rates and prospect for even lower interest rates. The divergence of monetary policy, even if the Fed is on hold for the rest of this year and next, should be dollar-positive. We have tried making sense of what is happening by separating the developments into two buckets. The first bucket, and what we think is the medium and long-term driver is the divergence of monetary policy. The German and Japanese yields through eight or nine years are negative.  Positive returns are offered in the US. This creates an incentive structur...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Beaten Down Dividend Aristocrat With Strong Brands

    V.F. Corporation (VFC) has been in business for more than 115 years and owns some of the most famous consumer apparel brands in the world (e.g. The North Face, Vans, Wrangler, Lee, etc.). Unseasonably warm winter weather, sluggish retail spending, unfavorable currency fluctuations, and several other transient factors have caused this dividend aristocrat to tumble nearly 30% since the end of July 2015. None of these factors seem to impact the company’s long-term earnings power, potentially setting up an attractive investment opportunity. VFC has increased its dividend for 43 consecutive years (2.6% yield) and appears to be trading at a v...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Stock Market; Last Ditch

    The US stock market must hold this level or a bear cycle begins (and SPX for instance, would target 1500 to 1560). Here are the futures for the US stock market headliners (i.e. the indexes most people look at).They are now at flimsy but ultra critical support. Of course, the broader stock market has long-since broken down… If a stick save is coming, it needs to be now....
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    WTI Crude Oil Pressured To The Downside

    WTI Crude Oil prices could target $26 – $25.5. OPEC report paints a grim picture. The rally in Oil prices last week were short lived as WTI Crude Oil broke the crucial 30 – 29.5 support level, which marked the head and shoulders pattern off the 4-hour chart time frame. Fundamentally, Oil prices remain bearish despite continuing rumors of cutting Oil production levels. No consensus has been reached yet with Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia in the forefront of the discussions. The main issue at hand being that despite the talks of cutting Oil production, no Oil producing nation has come forward to take the leap, leaving the question o...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    February 6, 2016 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Improves

    Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims The market (from Bloomberg) was expecting the weekly initial unemployment claims at 272 K to 290 K (consensus 281,000) vs the 269,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 284,750 (reported last week as 284,750) to 281,250. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014. It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally ...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Stock Whisper Of The Day: SPY – 2/11/2016

    Hot stock of the day: SPY Video length: 00:05:44...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    5-Year Bull Trend Is Ending, Breaking Below Support

    The Power of the Pattern would describe a bull trend, based upon a series of higher lows and higher highs. Using this definition, the broadest of indices in the states, are “breaking 5-year rising trends!” This could break the heart of the bulls. This 2-pack reflects that these two broad markets are breaking below “Weekly Closing” 5-year bull trends. When long-term trends break, it is common for selling pressure to come forward, regardless of the time of year! You’ve no doubt heard the phrase “Sell in May and go away!” This popular phrase also references that markets are typically strong from November to May. Below looks at sto...
    On February 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    JPMorgan: “It’s Hard To Imagine An Uglier Morning”

    Here is this morning’s market update from JPM’s Adam Crisafulli It’s hard to imagine an uglier morning. The two things markets hate most right now (neg. central bank rates and bad bank headlines) occurred overnight as the Riksbank dropped its rate further into neg. territory and SocGen put up bad earnings/guidance. The combination of those two events, coupled w/very fragile sentiment, extreme risk aversion (a function of enormous P&L destruction YTD), Yellen’s testimony (which wasn’t sufficiently dovish or concerned about financial market volatility from the perspective of markets), and CSCO’s cautiou...
    On February 11, 2016 / By