“His jest will savour but of shallow wit, When thousands weep more than did laugh at it.” William Shakespeare, Henry V And so it will be with the jokers of Wall Street, and their jesters. Let’s see what kind of retracement/consolidation we get off a short term very overbought condition. If we do get one. Koos Jansen has a new piece, London’s Gold Vaults Bleeding Out In December While China Imports 215 Tonnes. Have a pleasant evening. ...
Central banks have been ever-powerful in markets: support for stocks via the Bernanke Put, Draghi’s “Whatever it Takes” and Kurdoa’s Shock and Awe QQE are prime examples. They not only gave boosts to stock markets but also pushed down the currencies, thus making exports more competitive. Yet recently, it seems that these very powerful institutions with their role as creators of money are losing their shine and markets are losing their faith. Doubts about Draghi, Fear about the Fed It began when Master Mario Draghi created huge expectations and didn’t fully deliver. This resulted in the biggest leap in EUR/USD in 6 years and Dra...
Good question here from the Q&A section about negative yielding bonds: Hi Cullen. The Economist had a good article explaining why people buy negative yielding bonds. http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/02/economist-explains-6 Do you agree with their explanation? The Economist’s explanation is a bit odd as it leaves out the main reason that someone might want to buy a negative yielding bond – the fact that they expect it to appreciate in price thereby offsetting the loss in yield. For instance, let’s do a little bond math: If we have a 10 year bond yielding 0.01% and this bond declines to -0.5% over the next 12...
Today Incyte Corporation (INCY) announced that it will discontinue a Phase 3 trial in patients with pancreatic cancer due to insufficient efficacy. This early look occurred when the company performed an interim analysis and concluded that Jakafi did not show substantial efficacy to warrant continuation of the trial. This setback caused the stock to drop by more than 9% today, and leave many investors disappointed with the data. The failing of the pancreatic cancer solid tumor trial, wasn’t the only trial where Jakafi failed to improve patient outcome. Another phase 2 solid tumor trial that dealt with colon cancer was stopped early wh...
GAAP Results Q4 2015 net income of $27 million, or $0.28 per share; FY 2015 net income of $169 million, or $1.74 per share Q4 2015 pre-tax income of $45 million; FY 2015 pre-tax income of $283 million Non-GAAP Results Q4 2015 Adjusted Earnings of $36 million, or $0.37 per share; FY 2015 Adjusted Earnings of $215 million, or $2.22 per share; includes non-recurring cost of $0.04 per share Q4 2015 Adjusted EBITDA of $100 million; FY 2015 Adjusted EBITDA of $489 million Q4 2015 gross profit of $322 million; FY 2015 gross profit of $1,358 million Key Metrics End of period total brokerage and advisory assets of $476 billion Q4 2015 net new advisory...
Time Inc. (TIME), the owner of Time, Fortune, and People magazines, has acquired Viant, the parent company of Myspace. Joe Ripp, chairman and CEO of Time Inc., described the acquisition as “game changing” in a press release. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. For Time Inc., this acquisition is all about the data. Ad network Specific Media, another Viant-owned company, scooped up Myspace for $35 million in 2011. Its previous owner before that was News Corp, which bought Myspace for $580 million back in 2005. In buying Myspace, Viant amassed a database of more than 1 billion registered users. While not all of...
A major central bank just made a desperate move… If you’ve been reading the Dispatch, you know we’re living through a gigantic “global monetary experiment.” In short, global central banks cut interest rates to zero to fight the 2008 financial crisis. They’ve held interest rates near zero ever since. These reckless “easy money” policies have made it extremely cheap to borrow money. Using borrowed money, people have bought trillions of dollars’ worth of stocks, bonds, cars, commercial real estate projects, and single-family homes. This has warped prices of nearly everything. U.S. stocks, commercial real estate, and art prices ...
The lead consensus at JP Morgan holds that the ECB will cut its deposit rate to -0.5% next month and then in June to -0.7%. European banks hold one trillion euros in non-performing loans, and Greece is once again a default threat. This is an open invitation for bank runs. A gauge of deposit outflows are the Target-2 balances from the ECB. The following chart shows that Spanish and Italian banks have remained tapped into this scheme since the 2012 crisis. January’s numbers (when bank indexes fell out of bed) will be very revealing, if this surges. Many creditors of Italian and Spanish banks were small savers chasing yield that were talked in...
This is getting just plain nuts. Here is what Janet Yellen said today about the possibility of negative interest rates: In light of the experience of European countries and others that have gone to negative rates, we’re taking a look at them again because we would want to be prepared in the event that we needed to add accommodation.“ The operative words here are “European countries” and “add accommodation”. Yet even a brief reflection on those items demonstrates that Janet is a delusional Simpleton. To adopt Jim Kunstler’s felicitous phrase about Senator Rubio’s 4-Peat incantation during the last GOP debate, our finan...
It fascinates me how bear markets all feel alike in some ways. What I remember very clearly from the equity bear markets of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 is that bulls wanted to bottom-tick the market at every imagined opportunity. Every “support level,” for the first half of each decline at least, saw bulls pile in as if the train were about to leave the station without them on it. Of course, the train was about to leave the station, but it was backing up. Today, the S&P didn’t quite touch 1810 on the downside, basically matching the 1812 low from January. Bulls love double-bottoms. Of course, many of those turn out not to be double-bo...