OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +1.01%) are up +1.21% and European stocks are up +1.79% as strength in bank stocks and energy producers leads the overall market higher. JPMorgan Chase climbed over 3% and Bank of America added 2.4% in pre-market trading, while ConocoPhillips advanced 2.7% as the price of crude (CLH16 +4.69%) jumped +5.34%. European stocks were led higher by gains in mining stocks as copper prices rose, although on the negative side was the unexpected -1.0% m/m drop in Eurozone Dec industrial production, the biggest decline in 16 months. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -4.84%, Hong Kong -1...
There was some hope in early Japanese trading that after a seemingly endless rout in the USD/JPY, which has seen the Yen surge the most in the past two weeks since the 1998 Asian crisis, the BOJ would intervene, if not via policy where it has botched things up beyond repair then directly by selling Yen on the tape: the reason for this is not only yesterday’s direct intervention that sent the USD/JPY soaring by over 150 pips briefly, but also after a report that Finance Ministry’s FX chief Masatsugu Asakawa met deputy chief cabinet secretary to discuss market issues; this was followed by a meeting between Kuroda and Abe the news of whi...
After another difficult Asian session that saw the Nikkei fell 4.8% (12.3% on the week), the capital markets against have stabilized in Europe. Equity markets are mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up nearly 2% led by energy and financials. Oil prices are up a bit more than $1 a barrel though it still leaves Brent off almost $3 on the week and WTI off $3.6. This follows yesterday’s close, which was the lowest since 2003. Talk that the drop in price is increasing pressure on producers. Moody’s warned that the drop the fall in prices is jeopardizing the Russian budget, and Venezuela is facing challenges to servi...
GBPUSD: Having the pair rejected lower prices on Thursday and was seen strengthen during Friday trading session today, it looks to strengthen further. Support lies at the 1.4500 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.4450 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.4400 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.4350 level. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.4600 level with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.4650 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.4700 level followed by the 1.4750 level. On the whole, GBPUSD targets further bullish offensive on correction. ...
T2108 Status: 17.1% (1st oversold close after 3 straight days dipping to or below oversold)T2107 Status: 12.7%VIX Status: 28.1 (overhead resistance held yet again)General (Short-term) Trading Call: bullishActive T2108 periods: Day #1 under 20% (oversold day #1), Day #28 under 30%, Day #44 under 40%, Day #48 below 50%, Day #63 under 60%, Day #404 under 70% Commentary I am not surprised that yet another oversold period has arrived; T2108, the percentage of stocks trading below their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) dropped to 17.1%. I AM surprised (and disappointed) that the S&P 500 (SPY) never even made it close to overhead 50DMA r...
The battle between macro and markets rages on. Yesterday’s update of the ADS Index—a US business-cycle metric published by the Philadelphia Fed—remained comfortably in growth territory, in part due to yesterday’s upbeat report on jobless claims (one of the index’s six components). A markets-based estimate of the US economic trend, by contrast, continues to price in a new recession, based on the Macro-Markets Risk Index (MMRI), which aggregates four corners of the financial and commodities realm in an effort to gauge the crowd’s outlook. (See here for MMRI’s design details.) The standoff leaves investors with a difficult que...
Given the current market conditions you cannot blame those that have put some money in gold. There are a few reasons you would buy the shiny metal, and most of them revolve around fear and the idea of it being a higher price when you sell. The fear trade says that people don’t trust the cash they have to retain its value. Gold becomes a substitute for the paper currency and people trust it a little more than bitcoin. Maybe they also understand it a little more than the digital currency. The idea of buying it for a sale at a higher price is another concept. Investors do this all the time, it just becomes harder to justify when you are talkin...
Tonight I would like to update some charts we’ve been following for a very long time in regards to the deflationary spiral that really took hold in July of 2014. With the US dollar still in correction mode one would think that commodities would be going through the roof like the PM complex but that’s not the case. It appears that everything but the PM complex is starting to gather momentum to the downside. Lets start with a few commodities index we’ve been tracking which for the most part are completing their breakouts and backtesting process. I doubt you’ll see this take on the CRB index anywhere else but Rambus Chartology. We’ve b...
The euro-zone economy grew by 0.3% q/q in Q4 2015 and 1.5% y/y, exactly as expected. However, industrial output was very disappointing with a drop of 1% m/m and 1.3% y/y. EUR/USD continues hugging the 1.13 level. The euro-zone was expected to report a growth rate of 0.3% in Q4 2015, the same as in Q3. Year over year, a slide from 1.6% to 1.5% was on the cards, but Germany’s small miss implied a weaker number. EUR/USD traded lower, as the mood in markets improved, under 1.13. Yesterday, the common currency enjoyed safe haven flows and reached the veteran resistance line of 1.1375. At the same time, the euro-zone also published industrial ou...
Thursday saw the market swinging all day before the yen bounced from 111 by 190 points. It was a day off in Japan, so there was no comment from the BoJ. I think that the bank made an intervention through its dealer because the price doesn’t move from the place it has been sat for three hours for no reason. Due to a fall in the stock indices, the euro/dollar reached 1.1376. By the end of the day the rate returned to 1.1315. Janet Yellen had nothing new to say. The US indices closed the day down. Main news of the day (EET): 09:00, German CPI for January and GDP for Q4; 12:00, Eurozone industrial production data for December and GDP for Q4; 15...