Latest Posts
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Finance 0
3 Inverse Leveraged ETFs Up Over 20% In The Last One Month
Trading has been extremely choppy this year as the market is not getting any cue of a recovery and is fully in the grip of bears. All major global indices are in deep red. Among the top ETFs, the S&P 500 based SPY is off 9% so far this year, Dow Jones Industrial Average-based DIA has shed 7.9% and the Nasdaq-100 based QQQ has moved lower by 13.9%. The situation is similar across the pond with Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK) losing 11.4%. Emerging market ETF iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) has incurred losses of 9.3%, and all-world ETF iShares MSCI ACWI (ACWI) is off 10.1%. iShares Asia 50 ETF (AIA) has moved down by 11.6% so fa... -
Finance 0
Retail Sales Beat Expectations, Control Group Rises Most Since May Delaying “Fed Relent”
There was much at stake in today’s retail sales report, because had the Census reported another miss in the headline, ex auto and control group data, it would have made the Fed’s job of maintain the illusion of a recovery into a rate hike cycle virtually impossible. Luckily for Yellen, the numbers came out and they were were beats across the board. Retail sales rose to $449.904b in January, up from $449.1b in December Retail sales rose 0.2%, higher than the estimated 0.1% rise Retail sales less autos rose 0.1% in Jan., also better than the 0.0% estimate Retail sales ex-auto dealers, building materials and gasoline stations rose 0.... -
Finance 0
Is Deutsche Bank The Next Lehman?
Has the crash begun? The similarities between the current market environment and those seen in the 2008 economic crisis are scary to say the least. Investors are panicking and for good reason – signs that another Lehman-style crisis may be on the horizon. Deutsche Bank is the one in question. This German banking powerhouse has had its liquidity called into question and is now on the fence, being attacked from all sides as article after article is released pointing to the dangers the bank now finds itself in. As we reported yesterday, this uncertainty had a dramatic effect on the stock price of the bank, causing it to crash by 10%, dragging ... -
Finance 0
The Windy City Has Reached The Boiling Point
In the 1890s Charles Dana, editor of the New York Sun, referred to Chicago as the “Windy City.” Chicago was one of many cities competing to host the World’s Fair, and clearly the writer intended the double entendre to apply to the city’s weather as well as its mouthy politicians. When it comes to Chicago’s weather, anyone who has visited “Chi-town” (as the city is known in CB-lingo) can attest to the screaming wind off of Lake Michigan. It howls for what seems like days at 40 mph, carrying with it sub-zero temperature in the winter. As for Chicago’s politicians, spouting hot air just happens to be a trait common to people in ... -
Finance 0
Headline Retail Sales Improved In January 2016?
Retail sales improved according to US Census headline data. Our view is that this month’s data was weaker than last month. There was a small decline in the rolling averages. Consider that the headline data is not inflation adjusted and prices are currently deflating making the data better than it seems. Backward data revisions were generally upward. Econintersect Analysis: unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 1.6 % month-over-month, and up1.4 % year-over-year. unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth decelerated0.1 % month-over-month, 2.0 % year-over-year. Advance Retail Sales Year-over-Year Change R... -
Finance 0
Weekend Reading: Bull Struggles & NIRP
Wow…things are certainly happening faster than I expected. As January kicked off the new year, I posted myoutlook for 2016 in which I discussed why, despite views of Goldman Sachs and many others, interest rates were going lower rather than higher. “With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates on the short-end (Fed Funds), it will likely push the long-end of the curve lower as the economy begins to slow from the effects of monetary policy tightening. From a purely technical perspective, rates have been in a long-term process of a tightening wedge. A breakout to the upside would suggest 10-year treasury rates would soar to 3.6% or hi... -
Finance 0
US Retail Sales Beat On All Fronts – USD Rises
Some good news from the US: retail sales are up 0.2% and with an upwards revision. The control group is up 0.6%, double the expectations. Also other figures look good. The US dollar is slightly stronger across the board, with safe havens extending their losses US retail sales for January 2016 were expected to rise 0.1% after a slide of 0.1% in December (before revisions). Core sales were predicted to remain flat after -0.1%, the control group to rise 0.3% after -0.3% and ex-gas/autos was flat last time. This is a top tier release as consumption is a huge part of the US economy. Towards the release, the mood was improving, with the safe haven... -
Finance 0
Ex-Energy Forward Earnings Expectations Look Pretty Good
The list of headwinds facing the equity market seems to be growing longer every day. However, the top concern is the question of whether the economy is headed for a recession or not. In several prior posts, we have noted our view is a recession is not imminent. Certainly slow GDP growth continues to be the constant in this long recovery. Much of the market volatility though seems centered around the energy and material sectors. At the end of 2014 a barrel of oil was trading for $53.27 and closed today at $27.64. Demand for oil has not been the issue, it has been the continued growth in supply. The low energy prices have resulted in large capi... -
Finance 0
Bullet Report | US Data To Save The Markets?
After a day of panic yesterday, financial markets stabilized during the Asian Session despite Japanese Nikkei dropping to its lowest point in more than a year (trading -5% at time of writing). USD/JPY which dropped as low as 110.98 yesterday, rebounded to 113.92 before stabilizing around 112.00 today. There are increased suspicions that the bounce in USD/JPY is attributed to the Central Bank of Japan intervening in the currency markets, as a very strong Yen would not be beneficial to the country’s exports. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD weakened slightly, along with the GBP/USD. The commodity currencies also fell against the US Dollar, wit...
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