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Finance 0
Big Test For Those That Have Been Wrong, Says Joe Friday
In May of last year, the S&P hit a key level and stopped on a dime. We applied Fibonacci tools to the highs in 2007 and the lows in 2009, to the chart above. The 161% Fibonacci extension level came into play in the 2,150 zone last year and when hit at (1), the markets stopped on a dime. If your tools or adviser has suggested to be long and strong since May of 2015, that advice has been costly. Our take, “Free advice that is wrong, is expensive!!!” Below looks at stock index performance since the 161% level was hit. Joe Friday Just The Facts…The S&P on a daily Hi/Lo/Close is testing dual support at (2) above. Horizontal support ... -
Finance 0
Retail Sales: January Sales Show A Pleasant Bounce
The Census Bureau’s Advance Retail Sales Report released this morning shows that seasonally adjusted sales in January posted a welcome rebound from the December data, and those December numbers were adjusted upward. Headline sales increased 0.2% month-over-month and are up 3.4% year-over-year. Core Retail Sales (ex Autos) increased 0.1% MoM and are up 2.5% YoY. The Investing.com forecasts were 0.1% for both Headline and Core Sales. The chart below is a log-scale snapshot of retail sales since the early 1990s. The two exponential regressions through the data help us to evaluate the long-term trend of this key economic indicator. The ye... -
Finance 0
Import And Export Price Year-over-Year Deflation Continues In January 2016
Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year, and energy prices again drove this month’s decline. Import Oil prices were down 12.4 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices decreased 1.1 %. with import prices down 1.1 % month-over-month,down 6.2 % year-over-year; and export prices down 0.8 % month-over-month,down 5.7 % year-over-year.. the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg): Consensus Range Consensus Actual Export Prices – M/M change -2.2 % to -0.7 % -1.4 % -1.1 % Import Prices – M/M change -1.0 % to -0.2 % -0.6 % -0.8 % There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and ex... -
Finance 0
Don’t Forget The Golden Rule: He With The Gold Makes The Rules
In response to the global crisis, central banks have adopted unorthodox policies. They expanded their balance sheets and broken the zero bound of interest rates. Many investors have been critical of the central bank action on principle, but what has changed recently is that market developments have provided fodder for the ineffectiveness in practice. Asset purchases did not appear to bolster price pressures in the US, Europe or Japan. Negative rates in Europe also appears to have had little impact on inflation or investment. Lending in the eurozone was gradually improving prior to the introduction of negative rates by the ECB. The ... -
Finance 0
No Sign Of Recession In US Retail Spending Data In January
US retail sales rose a moderate 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reports. The gain offers another clue for thinking that the stock market’s plunge this year may be a false warning about the near-term macro outlook. In fact, when you look at retail spending’s year-over-year rate, today’s release shows a modest acceleration in the trend. To be fair, the early data for the January economic profile had been previously hinting at the probability that this year’s first month would escape the clutches of an NBER-defined recession. Today’s report strengthens that view. February, of course, remains a mystery in terms of the available h... -
Finance 0
No Sign Of Recession In US Retail Spending Data In January
US retail sales rose a moderate 0.2% in January, the Census Bureau reports. The gain offers another clue for thinking that the stock market’s plunge this year may be a false warning about the near-term macro outlook. In fact, when you look at retail spending’s year-over-year rate, today’s release shows a modest acceleration in the trend. To be fair, the early data for the January economic profile had been previously hinting at the probability that this year’s first month would escape the clutches of an NBER-defined recession. Today’s report strengthens that view. February, of course, remains a mystery in terms of the available h... -
Finance 0
E The Daily Shot And Data – February 12, 2016
Let’s begin with the extreme market pressure on the global banking sector that now dominates investors’ concerns (even more so than crude oil). At the center of this turbulence of course is Deutsche Bank. Here is the firm’s senior debt CDS spread which continues to rise. Source: @AlasdairPal News headlines such as the one below aren’t helping. Source: Reuters Even the 1-year DB CDS spread has climbed sharply. Source: @Schuldensuehner Moreover, Deutsche’s subordinated debt CDS spread widened to record levels. Source: ?@Sunchartist As a result of the above, the German sovereign CDS also rose on Thursday, indica... -
Finance 0
On Investment Charlatans
Photo Credit: Alex Proimos || A bunch of con men attempt to bilk an unsuspecting lady There are many ways to try to cheat people in the investment world. You can promise them: No risk (an appeal to fear) High returns (greed) Secret knowledge (can appeal to either or both fear and greed) An easy life, free from the worries common to man. And more… For virtually every human weakness or sin, there is a road to cheating men. This is why it is difficult to cheat a truly honest man, because an honest man is: Industrious — he knows most ways to improve his lot in life involve considerable work, whether physical or mental. Skeptical — he k... -
Finance 0
Week In Review: Dollar Posts Modest Recovery
It was another week of strong risk aversion in the markets as last Friday’s NFP data was quickly shrugged aside. Gold, Yen and the Euro gained over the week with Yellen’s testimony offering little support for the Dollar. At the time of writing, the US Dollar remains the weakest currency while the Japanese Yen is up by over 3.00% for the week, followed by the Swiss Franc. The week opened on a soft note with no major releases on Monday and Tuesday and China being closed for the most of this week on account of the Lunar holiday. The markets remained flat initially but by Tuesday’s NY trading session open, the US Dollar saw a st... -
Finance 0
Flip Floppin’ Friday – Markets Pull Back From The Abyss
Wheeeeeee – that was fun! As the groundhog (who’s name is Phil) predicted, we had 6 long weeks of selling to start off 2016 and, as of yesterday’s close, we were teetering on the brink of a Global Bear Market after a 20% correction – as you can see from the Bloomberg chart on the right. Things are so desperate out there that we find ourselves BEGGING for OPEC to cut production and raise oil prices – how crazy is that? It’s crazy because it’s idiotic an it’s idiotic because we have become a nation… a planet of impatient idiots who can’t bear to endure even a bit of discomfort – even if it...
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