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  • Finance 0

    Buying Puts To Protect Profits & Hedge Risk

    There are many different ways to protect profits and hedge risk in a winning stock. You can use a stop loss order, write call options, buy put options, and more. Today, we’re going to talk about buying puts, and compare that to using stops. Buying puts is probably the closest alternative to using a stop loss. But it does have additional benefits and drawbacks. First, it’s important to remember that when you buy a put option, you stand to profit as the market goes down. So in general, if someone buys a put, he or she has a bearish outlook. But again, puts can also be used to protect profits and to hedge risk. So how does it compare...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is Anybody Not Deeper In Debt?

    The New York Federal Reserve just announced that older Americans are carrying more debt than ever before and, believe it or not, spins this as a good thing: New York Fed Finds Large Increase in Debts Held by Those Over Age 50 (NASDAQ) – Americans in their 50s, 60s and 70s are carrying unprecedented amounts of debt, a shift that reflects both the aging of the baby boomer generation and their greater likelihood of retaining mortgage, auto and student debt at much later ages than previous generations. The average 65-year-old borrower has 47% more mortgage debt and 29% more auto debt than 65-year-olds had in 2003, according to data from the Fed...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Gets Back Lustre In Volatile Times: Will It Last?

    Gold prices have been trending up lately, making it the best performing commodity this year after three years of losses. Prices of the yellow metal jumped above the psychologically important level of $1,200 an ounce as investors flocked to the safe haven asset. Last year, a stronger greenback, slump in oil prices and the climb in U.S. equities led to a more than 11% decline in gold’s value. With the Federal Reserve finally ending an era of near-zero interest rates with the December lift-off, gold slouched to six-year lows. The reversal of fortune for the yellow metal this year reflects the all-around uncertainty characterized by volatile st...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Retail Sales – Relax, Everything’s Fixed

    At least that is the spin coming out of some of the talking heads today who are crying up a decent U.S. retail sales number as proof positive that the U.S. economy is not in that bad of a shape. When you add to that more short covering in the crude oil coming on the heels of that suspicious WSJ story about potential OPEC production cuts, the safe havens are all being jettisoned today as the “Let’s get back to RISK” sentiment is dominating. Heck, even the US Dollar is higher today after getting a beating this week. From what I can see however, the volume on these moves today is small by comparison to what we have been seeing this week. T...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold-Stock Upside Targets

    The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again, multiplying wealth for smart contrarian traders who bought them low in recent months. But after such a blistering surge, traders are naturally wondering how much farther gold stocks can run. Is it time to realize gains, or buy aggressively for greater gains to come?  This critical question can be answered by looking at fundamentally-derived gold-stock price targets. Many analysts shy away from offering price targets, with good reason. Divining precise future outcomes in volatile markets is all but impossible.  Prevailing stock prices result from the chaotic interplay between sentimental,...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Silver Prices Trading At A Discount To Gold

    Silver prices are bullish above the February 2 low of $15.11, and I anticipate that trend following traders are likely to use a pullback to the $15.48 mark (yesterdays’ breakout level) as an opportunity to add to their bullish exposure. We note that silver prices have been rallying strongly over the last two weeks, from a low of $14.18 to $15.97. This makes the trend overbought, however, the last few days prove that it’s far better to stick to the trend rather than trying to fight it. A bounce from $15.48 may mark a resumption of the bullish trend and take price to the current weekly high of $15.97. The next target beyond...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold, Gold Stocks, And The End Game

    We have seen the bottom in the gold market and gold stocks. Evidence: Examine the 30+ year chart of the monthly XAU (gold stock Index) to Gold ratio. You can see that the downtrend in the ratio has lasted about 20 years – since 1996.The ratio is now at all-time lows in the form of a contracting triangle.The triangle has been broken to the upside. In the last 20 years gold has moved upward from under $300 to $1,100 per ounce yet the XAU index has not kept pace, as shown by the ratio dropping from about 0.35 down to 0.03. Gold hit a multi-year low in December at about $1,045. As of February 11, about 1.5 months later gold prices have ral...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Insider Buying & S&P Intrinsic Value

    The SPY is ~90 pts below intrinsic value…. “Davidson” submits: Corporate insiders in general have a better sense of when their share prices are undervalued  relative to future business prospects. The chart at openinsider.com shows that when markets have compressed prices for whatever reason, corporate officer outright buying of shares (not option exercises) increases dramatically relative to selling. Three recent periods reflect this, mid-2007 to mid-2009, fall-2011 to earlt-2012 and mid-2015-to Present. Each of these periods coincide with periods when the SP500 has traded below the SP500 Value Investor Index just as we see today. ...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Down & Dirty For The Dow? Feb Or March Low?

    We have two Weekly Bearish Reversals in play today. The first is a key level 15994 and the second is short-term 15942. Certainly, a closing beneath both will warn that the Dow may yet break to test under the 14000 level going into as late as the week of February 22nd near-term and possibly extend into March. The Monthly Bearish Reversal will come into play if we break and that lies at 13937. This is the number that would mark a more sustainable break to the downside rather than a short-term correction. So pay attention to this number for this defines the broader-term for now. We also have a Monthly Bearish Reversal at 16015.  This is s...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Auto Loans, Student Debt Lead Household Re-Leveraging

    Mortgage debt remained essentially flat in 2015 but the brief period of household debt deleveraging ended in 2013. Since then student debt, credit card debt, and especially auto loans have been on the rise. A New York Fed “Liberty Street” study shows Household Debt Grew Slowly in 2015 as Mortgage Balances Stayed Flat. Auto Loan Durations Hit Record High The rise in auto loans and student debt are both problematic. And the duration ofauto loanskeep going up and up. The average new car loan has reached a record 67 months, reports Experian, the Ireland-based information-services company. The percentage of loans with terms of 73 to 84 months...
    On February 12, 2016 / By