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  • Finance 0

    The Role That The Clintons Played In Enabling The 2008 Economic Crisis And Financial Coup D’Etat

    “The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises.  If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time....
    On February 13, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    HUI …Meet Me At The Bottomz Inn ?

    This is the Question on Everyone’s mind . Earlier this week we looked at the expanding triangle as a possible reversal pattern as it was testing the top rail with a breakout gap. The next two days saw the HUI decline back down to the top of the double bottom hump at 139 where it found support. Yesterdays price action took out the top rail of the expanding triangle again. Today the HUI backtested the top rail around the 155 area and is bouncing. There is no doubt the PM complex is overbought but we now have two possible reversal patterns in play. The double bottom which was the first pattern that showed itself and now the expanding triangle ...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Welcome To Obama’s Recovery: Carrier Moving 1400 Jobs To Mexico

    In his final state-of-the-union address, President Obama famously accused anyone who dares to question the strength of the US economic “recovery” of “peddling fiction.” Shortly thereafter, we learned that the US economy grew at a paltry 0.69% in Q4. Below estimates.  Perhaps the most disturbing thing about the state of the economy – well, besides the fact that healthcare spending is essentially driving “growth” – is that the labor market has becoming a waiter and bartender creation machine. That’s come at the expense of manufacturing jobs, where skilled workers can actually earn a dec...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Meaning Of The 40-Year High In The Bond Market

    On Thursday, the 30 Year Treasury Bonds put in a 40-year high! Why are these bonds going higher (i.e., yields trending lower) even after the Fed raised rates, and continues to talk about hiking interest rates in its forward guidance? It simply means that the market does not have a lot of faith in the Fed. Yellen said this week that negative interest rates are on the table for the U.S. The next Fed meeting in March will be extremely important, and so are the next months, so expect a lot of movement in the markets and all assets. Meantime, investors should be watching the crude oil market, as it is a proxy for the stock market. Stocks are tota...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Daily And Silver Weekly Charts – Marking The Retracement Levels

    “We all suffer for each other, and gain by each other’s suffering; for man never stands alone here, though he will stand alone hereafter; but here is he is a social being, and goes forward to his long home as one of a large company.”  John Henry Newman “Only three things are necessary to make life happy: the blessings of God, books, and a friend. Jean-Baptiste Henri Lacordaire “A thing of beauty is a joy for ever:  Its loveliness increases; it will never  Pass into nothingness; but still will keep  A bower quiet for us, and a sleep  Full of sweet dreams, and health, and quiet breathing.” John Keats Gold and si...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    New Bull Market In Gold On Track

    Last week we focused on the gold stocks. There was more initial evidence of a new bull market there than in Gold. However, Thursday Gold erased some doubts as it rocketed above $1200/oz and to as high as $1264/oz before settling a bit lower. That move puts Gold’s recovery on par with those following past major lows and offers greater confirmation that a new bull market is underway. The chart below plots the recoveries from 1976 and 2008 and puts them on the same scale as the current rebound. Note how those recoveries surged well above $1200/oz within three months. Moreover, note how $1200/oz served as a pivot point for those two recoveries ...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EM Corporate Debt Is Not A Local Problem

    If we have at least a good idea about the gross exposure to US junk if not who ultimately holds and funds it, the emerging markets infiltration is much more difficult to parse. There are only a handful of estimates that appear reliable enough to obtain a decent range estimate. The first comes from the BIS and was written in 2013. At the time, the paper caused some stir as it announced what many had expected mostly about China – it had participated fully in the “dollar” short through several conduits, including the financial sector which was borrowing (through loans and bonds) offshore to fund client activities onshore (in dollars). Give...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    No End In Sight

    This week didn’t help any of my core market health indicator categories. They’re still looking ugly. To make matters worse, Dow Theory signaled yesterday that we’re in the midst of a long term bear market that could last from one to three years. Bear markets are a time where it’s hard to make money. Take a look at the charts in this post and you’ll see that all of the hedging strategies except for the Volatility Hedged portfolio lost money during bear markets. The Volatility Hedged portfolio benefited from the extremely steep declines in 2008 and 2009 (and subsequent historically high levels of volatility). I don’t think it’...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The U.S. Continues To Import Record Volumes Of Silver

    According to the most recent official data, the U.S. continues to import record volumes of silver.This is quite interesting because retail physical silver investment and industrial demand dropped off toward the end of the year. After the huge spike in physical silver investment from July to September, demand cooled down in October and November.Thus, silver imports into the United States also declined during those months.However, something changed in December. The USGS reported a huge 33% increase of U.S. silver imports in December versus November: The U.S. imported 557 metric tons (mt) of silver in December compared to 418 mt in November.Now,...
    On February 12, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Two Minute Warning

    Did some thinking on this. If we see the 10-year yield break below 1.50%, the next stop could be 1.0%. Central banks are out of bullets. The latest sign was last night’s warning by Japan’s Minister of Finance, Aso, not to bet on a rising yen. This is like when a team owner gives a failing coach a vote of confidence. That usually signifies the situation is bad. In the WSJ, Greg Ip writes that markets are signaling recession. On the surface, this appears correct. However, I think there is something else afoot. The UST market, particularly the long end of the curve, is mainly pricing in low inflation/disinflation/deflation, whatever the caus...
    On February 12, 2016 / By