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  • Finance 0

    USD JPY Currency Cross Analysis

    This year financial markets have been in Risk Off mode, and as a result the USD/JPY carry trade has reversed considerably in 2016. Just how low can we go in this reversal? At certain points a market is broken, and fair value considerations go out the window.  ...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Market In Perspective

    Last week we had a Panic Cycle in Gold and a Directional Change. Both performed on target.  As we have stated previously, the Directional Change can be by itself a very fascinating tool.   The Directional Change can at times be the beginning of a breakout to a new trading level (major thrust) in one directions which the market making a break to a new plateau in price movement. However, at other times,Directional Changes can mark the high or low and the culmination of a trend. The Directional Change can appear back-to back as we have currently for the weeks of 02/08/16 and 02/15/16. Here is an example from last year when we al...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Wall Street’s Week Ahead: Wal-Mart Stores, NVIDIA Corporation, Deere & Company And Virgin America

    While macro concerns and falling commodity prices have plagued the market in recent days, companies must overcome these challenges and focus on returning value to shareholders. Here’s what to watch for this week in earnings reports from Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), Deere & Company (NYSE:DE), and Virgin America Inc (NASDAQ:VA). Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Wal-Mart is set to release Q4:2015 earnings on Thursday, February 18 before market open. Analysts expect the retail giant to post revenues of $130.76 billion and earnings of $1.54 per share, compared to revenues of $131.56 billion and earnings...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Insider Weekends – February 14, 2016-Edition 295

    Insider buying more than doubled last week with insiders buying $252.12 million of stock compared to $87.63 million in the week prior. Selling on the other hand decreased with insiders selling $693.93 million of stock last week compared to $825.55 million in the week prior. We had another volatile week in the equity markets with little overall impact as the S&P 500 ended the week only down 0.81%. Commodities like oil and natural gas however saw continued selling pressure with WTI brent crude down more than 15% to $26.05 on Thursday before rebounding on Friday to close down 4.69% for the week. Gold, in contrast, continues to rally with...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Trend Following The Stock Market Weekend Review $GDX $ELLI $MXL $QQQ

    It’s been a very tough stock market for traders who are battling along with the bulls and bears. Friday’s action was somewhat encouraging, albeit on lower volume. Lower volume does not show commitment but rather a potential bear market rally. The market rallied due to jawboning of crude cutbacks. Crude flew up and the stock market followed. What is interesting is that many of the prior leaders are now also failing. REITS are failing and crossing their respective 50 day moving averages. Uncertainty is the theme for the stock market right now. However we do not walk away from the stock market. We are always building our watchlist. ...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Is A Phase Low In Place?

    Market Overview On Thursday, a decline which started at 1947 on the SPX broke the January 20 low of 1812 by a couple of points, and immediately reversed to finish on Friday’s close at 1864, with a 52-point bounce.Because of this being a potential double bottom, some analysts were quick to call this a bottom for the downtrend which started at 2116?Is it? Maybe yes and maybe no!It all depends on whether the next few days confirm it.What would it take for a confirmation?Either to keep going and surpass 1882 after a minor pull-back, or to spend some time consolidating above 1812 and then resume the rally.The two currently carry about equal weig...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Nasdaq Breadth Reaches 2011 Oversold Levels

    Tech and Large Cap indices sit on the border between a bear market or a steep correction.  While Small Caps have fallen into bear market territory, there is still a chance for other indices to come in from the precipice.  The most bullish of these markers is Nasdaq Breadth metrics.  Nasdaq Bullish Percents and Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 200-day MA have dropped to levels last seen during 2011 lows.   The relationship between new highs and lows in the NYSE is also building a head of steam.  There is no clear marker for a low, but action here is approaching levels last seen during the worst of the credit crisis.   The Transports...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    In Unexpected Twist, Oil Exporters Are Buying Treasuries While They Unload Stocks

    Long before the mainstream media caught on to the topic of SWF selling of stocks, we warned a month ago that as a result of the collapse in oil, and assuming oil remains priced at roughly $31 per barrel, the world’s largest SWFs shown in the chart below… … would be forced to liquidate at least $75 billion in equities and the lower the price of oil goes, the more selling there would be. Subsequently, we showed both the equity sector and region allocation of SWF equity exposure, noting that financial stocks located in Western Europe are most exposed, something both DB and CS have found out the hard way. We also warned (i...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    5 ETFs For Portfolio Safety, Stability And Diversification

    Global stock market volatility, oil price collapse and economic slowdown in China continue to rattle investor confidence this year. Former high flying stocks have come back to earth in the past few weeks as investors worry about the impact of weak global demand on corporate earnings. Investors had poured a lot of money into these stocks despite their sky high valuations but “risk-off” sentiment is sending many to “safer” assets now. As the domestic economy continued to recover slowly but steadily over the past few years, US stocks remained one of the best asset classes in the world. But of late, domestic economic growth has been rathe...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    A Bear Market For Most Global Indexes

    The traditional definitions of a “market correction” and a “bear market” are 10% and 20% declines, respectively. All eight indexes on our global watch list have been in correction territory, and as of the end of last week, seven of the eight had dropped into bear territory. The S&P 500 is the one outlier. It has been hovering in the correction zone since January 13th. The UK’s FTSE 100 is a near outlier. It dropped below 20% on February 9th, but after three days of bear stigma, it rallied to a 19.7% decline of Friday. Here is a column chart illustrating the maximum decline to date and the most recent level ...
    On February 14, 2016 / By