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  • Finance 0

    The Silver Blaze Report, 14 Feb, 2016

    Again, we had another big drop in the dollar this week. No, we don’t mean against the dollar derivatives known as the euro, pound, etc. We mean by the only standard capable of measuring it: gold. The dollar fell 1.4 milligrams, to 25.1mg gold. Or, if you prefer, 0.1 grams of silver. For some reason, it’s obvious when the price of gold in Zimbabwe goes up from Z$118,000,000 to Z$123,700,000 that Zimbabweans are not getting rich. But when the price of gold rises from US $1,118 to $1,237, as it did over the past two weeks, people celebrate. However, gold does not go anywhere, it’s the dollar that mostly goes down. It can go up too, as it d...
    On February 15, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Traders, Beware Of A Near-Term Reversal In The US Dollar – CIBC

    The US dollar has been on its back foot for quite a while, suffering from weakness in the US economy among other issues. Can this turn around though? Here is an explanation from CIBC: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The fed funds futures curve is now essentially flat, with market-based expectations pointing to a pause in the rate hike cycle until at least the end of 2017. That’s in sharp contrast to end of 2015, when futures were suggesting that the central bank would raise rates at least four times over the following two years. The belief that monetary policy divergence is no longer on the table has hit the USD too. After peaking...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why Stocks Went Down When Oil Went Down

    Equity markets descended in January alongside oil prices, while testing new lows with a visible increase in volatility. Oil’s dramatic price drop has been a catalyst for stock prices heading lower, a so-called correlation that has actually existed for years. There are various theories as to how oil and stock prices might be correlated, yet one of the most accepted revolves around macro economic global dynamics. Oil is the most traded and actively utilized commodity in the world whose consumption represents the economic activity worldwide. So when oil supplies grow and demand drops, markets interpret that as an economic slowdown. Such a slow...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Will We Have A Crisis Of Confidence In The Fed?

    by Michael Haltman Did Janet Yellen raise the fed funds rate in December only to turn around and lower it now? With the selloff in the equity market, sharp decline in the price of crude oil and uncertainty surrounding the U.S. and global economies, the LAST thing we need is for a crisis of confidence to develop concerning the competence of the Federal Reserve! Part of the text of Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress that she will give today, just released, makes one wonder what the Fed saw in December 2015 sparking an increase in the fed funds rate that the rest of us didn’t see! At the end of January 2016 I wrote the following&...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Trading Support And Resistance – February 14, 2016

    This week we’ll begin with our monthly and weekly forecasts of the currency pairs worth watching. The first part of our forecast is based upon our research of the past 11 years of Forex prices, which show that the following methodologies have all produced profitable results: * Trading the two currencies that are trending the most strongly over the past 3 months. * Assuming that trends are usually ready to reverse after 12 months. * Trading against very strong counter-trend movements by currency pairs made during the previous week. * Buying currencies with high interest rates and selling currencies with low interest rates. Let’s take a...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Eric Dubin: We Hit An Inflection Point

    I sat down with Eric Dubin, Managing Editor, The News Doctors to discuss the gold and silver market on Thursday Feb. 11, 2016. Eric is one of the best analyst around. He doesn’t pull punches and speaks straight. His long term analysis has been pointing to this time frame and the recent unfolding events. I wanted to get caught up on what is happening, how he sees the current events effecting tomorrow and what we should do to better protect ourselves. During our conversation Eric must have used the words “inflection point” close to a dozen times. We must know where have been in order to know where we are headed. If our histo...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Gold Weakens On Corrective Pullback

    Gold: Having continued to decline following its Friday downside pressure after price failure, more weakness is now envisaged in the days ahead. On the downside, support comes in at the 1210.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1200.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1190.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1180.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1240.00 level where a break will aim at the 1250.00 level. A turn above there will expose the 1260.00 level...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    What Should You Do In The Next Bear Market Rally?

    Bull markets have corrections. Specifically, long-term uptrends often hit roadblocks where stock assets may pull back by 10%, 14%, even 19%. Those who may have been holding some cash typically benefit from buying into weakness at significantly lower prices. Bear markets have bear market rallies. Selling pressure typically abates long enough to allow buyers to push stocks higher by 10%, 14%, even 19%. During long-term downtrends, however, attempts at “bargain purchases” can exacerbate portfolio losses and damage psychological resolve. Consider what transpired in 2008. In the first half of the year between March and May, the Dow rallied ...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Debt Forgiveness “Helicopter Drop” The Next Step In Deflation Fighting?

    Reader Richard wonders if debt forgiveness is the next step in central bank efforts to fight deflation. Richard picked up that idea after listening to an interview with Steven Major, Managing Director, Fixed Income Research at HSBC. Richard writes: Hello Mish, Congratulations on the upgrade to WordPress. I was listening to an interview Steven Major at HBSC. Major believes, without identifying the timing, that the next stage of unconventional monetary policy would include debt forgiveness. Major called it “helicopter money”. I would love to see your thoughts about this. Thanks, Richard Helicopter Drop? In contrast to central bank padding o...
    On February 14, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Further Euro Strength Suspect As Data Deteriorates; ECB Very Likely To Act

    The Euro is doing nothing more than meandering around versus the rest of its major counterparts, seemingly oblivious to developments at home as (admittedly) more interesting developments take place abroad: the Federal Reserve’s cheeky attempt at normalizing policy; Chinese/emerging market growth slowing down rapidly; and geopolitical tensions between military superpowers ratcheting higher across all corners of the globe. All of it makes for a rather distracting trading environment, and less ‘flashy’ developments can easily be overlooked. A look under the surface shows that the Euro-Zone is starting to face more difficulties of its own...
    On February 14, 2016 / By