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Forex Critical: Key Changes In Positioning – Counter-Trend Edition
The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of from Monday, February 8, 2016. From Oanada: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based in Chicago and New York), where commodities, metals, and currencies are bought and sold. The COT is released every Friday at 3:30 Eastern Time, and reflects the commitments of traders for the prior Tuesday.” In this edition of “Forex Critical” I focus on notable changes in the currency po... -
Finance 0
Market Expectations
This is the image run by USA Today showing how quickly the general public assumes long-term changes in trend are at hand. The general headlines said the public lost confidence in the central banks. The public is losing confidence in everything and when that moves to the political arena next year, we should be off and running with the Public to Private asset shift. With the US markets closed today, gold has fallen back to $1207 to retest the reversal it elected at $1209. Since we closed at 1239.40 well above that number, you should return to retest it. There are still no indication that gold has reversed the trend. This is true also with th... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY And NZD/USD Forecast – February 15, 2016
USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the day, but found enough support below to turn things back around and form a nice-looking hammer. The hammer of course is a bullish sign and as a result I think we will probably see this market bounce from here. Ultimately though, I feel that the 115 level should be massively resistive, and with that I’m simply looking for some type of resistant candle above in order to start selling again. After all, keep in mind that this market is highly sensitive to risk appetite around the world, and that certainly is something that continues to be very negative. On the other hand, we could ... -
Finance 0
Germany Keeping The Eurozone Afloat
The Eurozone’s economic growth was sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2015, posting a weak 0.3% growth for the secondquarter in a row. While it did match analysts’ forecast of 1.5% growth on the year, the outlook for 2016 isn’t looking so hot with Italy’s recovery waning. The southern European country’s GDP grew just 0.1% in the last three months of the year, missing the estimate of 0.3% by economists. “Italy is struggling to emerge from the great recession and despite some encouraging signs in the first part of 2015, growth lost momentum in the second half,” says Lorenzo Codogno, a professor at the London School of Economics.... -
Finance 0
The Retracement In The Price Of Gold
Here is a closer look at the retracement of gold we have seen as of this morning. While the US markets are closed for Presidents’ Day, the rest of the world is open for business. I will be otherwise engaged at hospital for a colonoscopy, an activity a bit less distasteful that watching the political debates but inconvenient nonetheless. And so I will not be available for emails or comments. And so I think I will take the rest of the day off. See you tomorrow.... -
Finance 0
Don’t Blame China For Market Insanity… Says China
When it comes to geopolitics, all anyone wants to talk about is Syria. And understandably so. When it comes to financial markets, all anyone wants to talk about is China – an equally understandable fixation. To be sure, China was already a big driver of risk on/ risk off sentiment going into August of 2015. The “is it a hard landing or is it not” question very often dominated global macro discussions among those who enjoy debating such things. But when Beijing moved to a new FX regime on August 11, China was thrust into the spotlight. The “surprise” devaluation of the yuan plunged global markets into chaos, triggering “Black M... -
Finance 0
EC This Time Is Different!
Experts Agree: It Is Not 2008 If someone were to ask us what year it was, we would probably politely answer that it was 2016, curious to find out whether the inquirer was a) very confused, b) had only recently awoken from a coma and was still unsure of his when-abouts, or c) was a time traveler who got temporarily lost. In the unlikely case that we should find ourselves unable to remember the year with sufficient precision to ensure a reliable answer, we’d probably consult a calendar. We recently found out that a great many people actually seem to be uncertain about what year it is. Or at least many mainstream media appear to think so, as... -
Finance 0
Berkshire Hathaway Increases Stake In Phillips 66 By $1.1 Billion In 2016
By Dr. David Kass In SEC Form 4 filings, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) has disclosed that in January and early February 2016, it has added to its stake in Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) at prices between $72 and $80 per share. This additional investment of approximately $1.1 billion ($634 million in early January and $446 million in late January and early February) has resulted in Berkshire owning 75.6 million shares of Phillips 66, or 14.3 percent of its outstanding shares. Berkshire’s stake in Phillips 66, at its closing price of $75.20 on February 12, is valued at $5.7 billion and is its sixth largest stock holding. Since i... -
Finance 0
DAX 30: Short-term Bullish Above 8845
The DAX 30 (FXCM: GER30) has risen 3.05% this morning and may continue to rise over the next few days as short-sellers get squeezed out of their positions. The cause of the latest rally has likely been the oversold conditions present at the end of last week, which triggered profit taking by short-sellers and U.S. Retail Sales Control Group rising by 0.6% in January from negative 0.3% in December. The latter suggests that the U.S. economy is holding up better than expected by financial markets and the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model predicts a 2.7 percent real GDP growth (SAAR) for the first quarter of 2016. Such would be a welcome bounce given the... -
Finance 0
E Fear Not, Market Will Rebound
Last year our real GDP grew 2.4 percent, primarily driven by personal consumption and fixed investments, by both residential and non-residential fixed investments. However, markets in 2015 ended up flat. That also means corporations have added one-year worth of retained earnings in their balance sheets without any market price gains. At the end of last week, markets earnings declined by 9 percent compared to last year. You can also say markets are approximately 11 percent cheaper than they were on the beginning of last year. There are number of unknown fears and concerns that seems to spook investors lately. In my opinion, many of these fea...
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