USD/JPY just had its best week in 2 months, funding bullish momentum and carry trades around the world in the midst of dismal economic data everywhere and tumbling earnings expectations. This “bullish” Yen strength, however, amid China’s biggest weekly devaluation in almost 3 months, wasironically driven by drastic investment outflows – record sales of Japanese stocks by foreigners (sell JPY), and record purchases of foreign bonds by Japanese investors (sell JPY). Sooner, rather than later, it is obvious that the investment outflows will dominate the carry trades (see Thursday and Friday) and Kuroda and Abe wil...
Oil has stayed resilient during the past few weeks, despite occasional risk-off sentiment. Crude prices rose to their highest in three months in early March, at $42.49/barrel for WTI and $42.54/barrel for Brent. This was triggered by a combination of tightening supply, a proposed production freeze and a weaker US dollar. However, the November-December range of $44.16-$46.46 may act to cap higher development in WTI oil in the near term. Looking ahead, the April 17 Doha meeting to freeze output is a main event for the supply side, whereas demand growth from the main consumers may continue to slow down. Chart 1. Source: International Energy Age...
The U.S. energy resurgence has been one of the bright spots of the economic recovery since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Many of the shale plays in Texas financed their growth with cheap debt. Now that oil has fallen from above $100 to sub-$50 many oil drillers are finding it difficult to service that debt. Through mid-December, there were 41 oil and gas bankruptcies with collective debt exceeding $16 billion. Are Bankers Looking To Save Themselves? Banks have feasted on fees and interest income from energy loans since the crisis. Now that drillers and oilfield services firms are finding it difficult to service that debt banks want out in ord...
The following data cover the latest from the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders as reported by Oanda from the week of Monday, March 21, 2016. From Oanda: “The Commitments of Traders (COT) is a report issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It aggregates the holdings of participants in the U.S. futures markets (primarily based in Chicago and New York), where commodities, metals, and currencies are bought and sold. The COT is released every Friday at 3:30 Eastern Time, and reflects the commitments of traders for the prior Tuesday.” In this edition of “Forex Critical”, I focus on notable changes in the currency positioni...
On 23-24 February, senior executives from across Europe attended the two-day CXFS event. The conference’s customer-centric focus aimed to provide insight and improve relationships between customers and companies. The event accommodated around 80 executives, VPs and directors engaged in customer experience, marketing and digital strategy from leading corporations. The attendees gained exclusive access to knowledge from the most advanced companies in the field, through conference talks, interactive discussions and innovative network formats. Innovative agenda The event agenda covered a variety of different methods of engagement, including c...
The global market selloff continued over the past week. Our aggregate world index plunged 4.29%, and that’s with China’s Shanghai Composite on the sidelines in celebration of Spring Festival. The top performer of the active markets was the S&P 500, down only 0.81%. The biggest loser was Japan’s Nikkei 225, down a stunning 11.10%. Here is an overlay of the eight illustrating their comparative performance so far in 2016. Here is a table of the 2016 performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. The top performing FTSE 100 is down “only” 8.57%, with the S&P 500 clos...
From Liberty Street Economics — this post authored by Thomas Klitgaard and James Narron It always seemed to come down to railroads in the 1800s. Railroads fueled much of the economic growth in the United States at that time, but they required that a great deal of upfront capital be devoted to risky projects. The panics of 1837 and 1857 can both be pinned on railroad investments that went awry, creating enough doubt about the banking system to cause pervasive bank runs. The fatal spark for the Panic of 1873 was also tied to railroad investments – a major bank financing a railroad venture announced that it would suspend withdraw...
China is upset with “speculators.” You see it’s not that China’s economy is “landing hard” and it’s not that a massive yuan devaluation is almost a foregone conclusion. No, it’s that “manipulators,” “speculators,” financial “predators,” and all sorts of other nefarious foreign meddlers are colluding to destabilize the country’s economy and financial markets for personal gain. If it were up to the Beijing, this gang of evildoers would be rounded up and jailed until they agreed to confess their “crimes” on live television. Either that or they’d simply disappear into the bowels of the Politburo. Unfortunat...
SunEdison, Inc. (SUNE – Analyst Report) is expected to report fourth-quarter 2015 results on Feb 17. Notably, the company posted wider-than-expected loss in the last quarter. Let us see how things are shaping up for this announcement. Factors to Consider In an effort to strengthen its position as a renewable energy developer, SunEdison has been on an acquisition spree over the past two years. These moves, once believed to be strategic, are now being considered ineffective as the company does not have the financial strength to fund the projects. The acquisitions nearly doubled the total outstanding debt to $11.7 billion at the end of ...