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E Markets Weekend Update- March 26, 2016
VIX began a rally from its Master Cycle low on March 18. An aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal) may be made with a rally back above mid-Cycle resistance at 15.90. (Barrons) Lots of market-watchers are talking about the recent plunge in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The VIX, an options-based measure of market expectations for future price swings in the S&P 500, just had its sharpest 25-day decline on record, says MKM Partners’ derivatives strategist, Jim Strugger. The VIX fell from 28 on Feb. 11 to 14 last week. The decline means that demand for short-term options protection fell fast while U.S. stocks r... -
Finance 0
Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Markets Finally Celebrate Good News?
The data calendar continues in something of an alternating mode. This week we have a concentration of the important economic releases. We also have daily appearances by Fed members. This provides a daily opportunity for pundits to interpret the news: Can markets finally celebrate good news? Prior Theme Recap In my last WTWA I predicted special attention to housing sector issues in a week without much other data. Instead, the Brussels attacks quickly dominated the news. When there was not much additional information, the stories featured the reactions of one and all. Doug Short notes the three-day losing streak in his excellent weekly chart... -
Finance 0
USD/CHF: Vulnerable Medium Term Despite Recovery Attempts
USD/CHF: The pair faces further weakness medium term despite its recovery attempts the past week. On the downside, support lies at the 0.9700 level. A turn below here will open the door for more weakness towards the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9600 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.9800 level where a break will clear the way for more strength to occur towards the 0.9850 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9850 level. All in all, USD/CHF remains weak and vulnerable to the downside on more decline. ... -
Finance 0
Both Value Stocks And Low-Quality Stocks Needed Now
Both investors who favor momentum stocks and those who focus their portfolios around high-quality stocks have probably had a very difficult 2016 so far, but for very different reasons. As a result, it may be a good idea to include both in investment portfolios particularly in light of the macroeconomic changes that are going on right now. Fundstrat advises investors to choose value stocks to take advantage of the weakening U.S. dollar and momentum stocks to benefit from the easing credit environment. 2016 brought two different problems Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Thomas J. Lee and his team said general investor sentiment suggests that... -
Finance 0
US Dollar Tempers Pace, But Bull Trend Still Endures
The US Dollar took a dangerous tumble through the first quarter, throwing into doubt the currency’s ambitions after more than four years of advance. The extreme contrast between the Greenback and its global counterparts has notably moderated over the past months and that in turn has cooled the bullish fervor for the currency. In fact, the benchmark’s fundamental supremacy started to falter around March of 2015 when forecasts for growth, revenues and rates started to fall short of the overzealous speculative projections. As the economy cooled, corporate profits ebbed and the Federal Reserve cut its rate forecasts; the inflated Dollar premi... -
Finance 0
Swiss National Bank Admits It Spent $470 Billion On Currency Manipulation Since 2010
By now it is common knowledge that when it comes to massive, taxpayer-backed hedge funds, few are quite as big as the Swiss National Bank, whose roughly $100 billion in equity holdings have been extensively profiled on these pages, including its woeful investments in Valeant and the spike in its buying of AAPL stock at its all time high. But while the SNB’s stock holdings are updated every quarter courtesy of its informative SEC-filed 13F (we wish the Fed would also disclose the equities it holds courtesy of its Citadel proxy), getting a gllimpse of the flow is more problematic, and involves waiting for the hedge fund’s, pardon ce... -
Finance 0
Prospects Part 1 Of 4
This weekend, I decided to do still images instead of videos. Showing charts like this takes much, much longer than doing a video, but I know some people prefer it since they can just skim. In any case, the charts this weekend have these things in common: (1) I am NOT presently short any of these positions, although I intend to be so; (2) I have tinted in green the zone which the price must not penetrate, since if it does, I will not enter the position (or, if in it, will stop out) For me, the “big picture” of the massive topping pattern is unchanged, in spite of the sickening rally which ran from February 11th through March 18th: Here ar... -
Finance 0
5 Investment Management Stocks To Sell Now
The U.S. economy is recovering at a gradual pace, but the global growth concerns still persist. Factors like slowdown in China and other developed economies, uncertainty over the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike and volatility in oil prices have had a significant adverse impact on the confidence of the Americans. Among the sectors, Finance seems to be losing its attractiveness to investors due to its lackluster earnings performances in the recent past. Further, the experience of the sector’s role in 2008 financial crisis is keeping investors away. Though investment management (a part of the broader Finance sector) has been ... -
Finance 0
Brexit Campaign Gathers 250 Business Executives Including Former HSBC CEO; Project Fear
The former CEO of HSBC, Michael Geoghegan, joined a chorus of 250 business leaders who think Brexit is a good idea. The current and former CEOs of HSBC do not see eye-to-eye in this debate. Back in January, the current CEO, Douglas Flint, threatened to move 1,000 investment jobs to Paris if the UK were to leave the EU. It appears Flint has not thought through the ramifications of a financial transaction tax that will be crammed down his throat (among other things) shortly after the UK elects to stay in. Meanwhile, a YouGov poll of over 1,000 small and medium sized enterprise (SMEs) shows a mere 14% percent believe the EU market makes things e... -
Finance 0
Initial Claims Say We’re In Something Deeper Than The Tech Or Housing Bubbles
Initial Claims came in at +265K, making it over a year of Initial Claims below the psychologically important 300K threshold. In looking at comparable cycles, one has to go all the way back to the early 1970s to find a similar instance. This isn’t your typical tech bubble. Nor is it your typical housing bubble. This is something else. Perhaps call it the Fed bubble. Or the online work bubble. Call it whatever you’d like, but this labor market is something more than the tech and housing bubbles. Claims per Employee The broad Initial Claims picture is one way to view the figures.Dividing by how many employees there are is another. Here’s...
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