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  • Finance 0

    Four Keys To The Week Ahead

    There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen’s speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan’s Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market equity index put in its low on January 20, as did the CRB Index.  The price of oil appeared to bottom then as well, but it retested the lows in mid-February and made a marginal new low.   The easing of monetary policy by the ECB, BOJ and PBOC helped rekindle the risk appetites. The Federal Reserve ...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    China: Soft Landing Or Bust?

    China’s stock market ‘bubble’ was fueled by “speculative mania” which has proven to have had grave implications of the global stock markets. The collapse of this “speculative mania” will have far reaching ramifications on our current global stock markets. This indicates that Central Bank interventions cannot alter market cycles.? Chinese exports have seen their sharpest drop in almost seven years which is adding to concerns of the health of the worlds’ second largest economy.  Exports have dropped sharply, by 25.4%, from the previous year, while imports fell 13.8%.  This weak data comes on the heels of Beij...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Equity And Economic Week In Review: There’s Not Much To Get Excited About

    This week’s housing news was mixed. While new home sales increased 2% M/M, they declined 6.1% Y/Y. Existing home sales, however, dropped a whopping 7.1% M/M.  Bill McBride at Calculated Risk argues low inventory and pockets of regional weakness are to blame.  The New York Times added recent market volatility probably lowered sentiment, contributing to the weakness.This graph from the FRED system places the information into a longer-term context: Existing home sales moved sideways in 2015. New home sales peaked early, trended lower until the end of the summer, moved sharply higher and then back-off a bit of the last few months. But,...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Economic & Political Timeline

    It probably will not be as quiet this week as it was last week, but we still have a very thin data schedule with no central bank input. Therefore volatility is likely to be relatively low but will probably pick up quite a lot at the end of the week on Friday as we get U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data, as well as Chinese and British manufacturing numbers. Monday is a public holiday throughout most of Europe. U.S. Dollar It should be an important week for the Greenback, as there are several important items due. The week begins on Tuesday with a release of CB Consumer Confidence data, as well as a speech by the Chair of the Federal Reserve. Then on We...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Stocks Wary Of A Fed Rate Hike

      ? S&P breaks five-week earning streak with 0.7% loss ? U.S. equities expect headwinds from hawkish Fed, earnings season ? EUR/USD loses 0.9%, amid hawkish Fed commentary ? GBP weakens as Brexit concerns continue ? Gold prices visit monthly low After five consecutive weekly gains, the S&P 500 (SPY) saw its four-day weekly session conclude with a 0.7% loss. All good things must come to an end, but this time it was backed by considerable headwinds from global development. Namely, mounting concerns that the Fed has a real intention to hike rates again, possibly even as early as April. The decline also dragged the index to a mere 0.9% o...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Facebook Inc. Stock – Will It Continue To Surge?

    By Christopher Morris Both technology stocks and the social media sector have been facing serious commercial challenges recently. In fact, many of the biggest names in social media have struggled to ever demonstrate profitability, most notably Twitter (TWTR). But Facebook Inc (Nasdaq:FB) continues to deny these conventions and trends, delivering a profitability and share price viability that has been the envy of many of its competitors. Even in a relatively quiet year for this particular niche, Facebook stock has climbed over 7 percent since the beginning of the calendar year. Facebook share price growth This comes on the back of a thirty...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Bond Market Week In Review: Is The Yield Curve Still A Valid Recession Predictor?

    This week, I’ll be focusing exclusively on the treasury market’s performance. Let’s start with a slope of the overall yield curve: The 30-2 spread is currently 178, nowhere near inversion. The standard interpretation of this is that we’re nowhere near a recession. The 10-2 spread confirms that interpretation: The difference between the 10 and 2-year treasury is 96 basis points: we again have a fair amount of room to run before the yield curve signals a recession is imminent. It’s logical to ask if the unprecedented nature of central bank actions prevents this recession indicator from being predictive, a question that naturally lea...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    New Trades In The Smart Alpha Equity Income Portfolio

    Another three months, another refresh of the Smart Alpha Equity Income portfolio. There were plenty of trades, 19 out of 20 positions turned over. That’s par for the course and to be expected: The model reaches for yield as far as feasible without straying into the junk-income territory, and that requires that we not allow metrics that lead to purchase to become stale with age. First Things First: Turnover I know it’s respectable and expected to consider portfolio turnover. On one level, we do want to hold positions long enough for our ideas to be able to pan out, and many do take time. But many are much more worried about transaction c...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Was This The Worst Economist Forecast Of All Time?

    When it comes to predicting the future, there has traditionally been a stealthy contest between economists and weathermen as to who is the worst predictor of coming events. Lately, there was some confusion when economists – this includes central bankers and market “strategists” -tired of being humiliated in public for their terrible predictions, decided to become Monday Morning weathermen (ironically, none more so than those who competed with Groundhog Phil and lost) and blame their lack of foresight on the weather . This led to even more humiliation for said economisseds (sic) and entertainment for everyone else. B...
    On March 27, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    International Economic Week In Review: A Good Friday Shortened Week

    Add the Dallas Fed to the list of organizations arguing for weaker global growth.Their latest International Economic Update reported: Global growth is slowing (Chart 1). Fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in emerging markets was below 4 percent, its lowest level since 2003, except for during the 2009 recession. Advanced foreign economies slowed as well; consequently, global GDP growth is at its lowest since 2009. This global slowdown made U.S. exports to emerging markets decline considerably, while exports to advanced economies grew slightly. The report contained the following graph: Advanced economies (the red line) we...
    On March 27, 2016 / By