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    Long-Awaited Recovery Or Fewer Pigs?

    On average, pig prices in China are about 50% higher to start this year than last. At about 25RMB per kg, prices are already above the seasonal surge that typically occurs during late summer. Last year, as pig prices started this huge run, wholesale pork jumped from a low of about 17RMB per kg at the start of April 2015 to around 24RMB per kg by late August. The year before, wholesale pork moved from 16RMB per kg to about 20RMB per kg during the summer months. The reason for this massive spike in pork prices is Chinese supply of pigs, meaning the curiously shrinking inventory of animals. Pig farmers have exited the business in great numbers o...
    On April 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Central Banks – What Are They Doing And Where? Global Monetary Policy Tracker

    Here’s a Tableau Script I picked up from the Council on Foreign Relations. The summary “Index of Global Tightening or Easing” color-bar can be found just above the map. The index ranges from -10 (dark blue) to 10 (dark red), where -10 indicates that all countries are easing (as in late 2008) and 10 indicates that all are tightening (as in mid-2006). In generating the Index value at any point in time, each country’s monetary policy stance is weighted by its currency’s share of global foreign exchange reserves. (The United States, therefore, receives a 61 percent weighting.) A country is said to be easing (tightening) policy if has c...
    On April 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Mile-High Merger: Alaska Airlines Buys Virgin America, Expanding Market Reach

    Written by Frank Holmes, CEO Of U.S. Global Investors A little over 10 years ago, there were a dozen major domestic airlines. Following a wave of bankruptcies, the industry consolidated, and today four remain—American, Delta, United and Southwest. For the past couple of years, these newly-strengthened carriers, along with a full roster of regional and low-cost carriers, have been beating expectations, generating record profits and free cash flow and rewarding shareholders with dividend growth and stock buybacks. Low fuel costs have served as an additional windfall. That doesn’t mean the industry now lacks the room to change (and improv...
    On April 11, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    What Are The Chances Of A Rate Hike In April?

    Image via Leo Newball, Jr. ‘California Federal Reserve Bank’ / Flickr The USD/CAD pair moved slightly on Friday, the European session setting the rate in the 1.3230 area. The main reason for this small fluctuation is that the Canadian markets were closed for Good Friday, being no Canadian news releases. From the US side, the final GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures for Q4 have been released, with markets expecting a +1.0% restatement and actual figures posting a 1.4% value. As Canada is a major oil producer, the Canadian dollar is highly impacted by the crude oil price fluctuation. The downfall in oil price since the mid-2015 has taken ...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Starwood Says Anbang Group Made Revised Proposal For $82.75/share

    Starwood Hotels (HOT) announced that its board, in consultation with its legal and financial advisors, determined that a revised, non-binding proposal from a consortium consisting of Anbang Insurance Group Co., Ltd., J.C. Flowers & Co. and Primavera Capital Limited is reasonably likely to lead to a “Superior Proposal” as defined in Starwood’s merger agreement with Marriott (MAR). On March 26, 2016, Starwood received a non-binding proposal from the Consortium, under which the Consortium would acquire all of the outstanding shares of Starwood common stock for $81.00 per share in cash. Starwood’s Board, in consultatio...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    These Are The Oil Producers That May (Or May Not) Attend Next Month’s “Farcical” OPEC Meeting

    The one catalyst most responsible for sending the price of oil from its 13 year lows hit in early February some 50% higher in the following month, has been the recurring rumor about an “imminent” OPEC production freeze meeting which was initially supposed to take place in early March, then on March 20, and now on April 17 (we expect this to be rescheduled shortly as well). As a reminder, Qatar has invited all OPEC members and major producers from outside the exporting group to attend talks on April 17 on a deal to freeze output at January levels to support the global oil market, Qatar’s energy ministry said. “The need ...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Why I Love/Hate The Oil Companies

    The first thing I do when I get up every morning is to curse the oil companies as blood sucking scourges of modern civilization. I then fall down on my knees and thank God that we have the oil companies. This is why petroleum engineers are getting $100,000 straight out of college, while English and political science major are going straight on to food stamps. I recommend (XOM) and other oil majors as part of any long-term portfolio. In my lifetime, the price of oil has gone up from $3 a barrel up to $149. The reasons for the ascent keep growing, from the entry of China into the global trading system, to the rapid growth of the middle class in...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Forex Forecast – 3/28/16

    EUR/JPY The EUR/JPY pair initially fell during the course of the week, but found enough support underneath the 125 level to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer of course is a very bullish sign, so I feel that this market is going to continue to grind higher during the course of the week. Pullbacks should be buying opportunities on signs of support as well. USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair rose during the course of the week, showing signs of strength. With that being the case, the market looks as if it is going to try to reach towards the 115 level given. With that, I remain bullish but also recognize that this market is still very m...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Meaningless Monday Market Movement

    Most markets are closed today. For some reason, the US takes Good Friday off and not Monday, which is better, because then you get to come back to a short week, which feels like another vacation.  Anyway, this is going to be a wild week as we have 5 scheduled Fed speakers and the Fed Minutes on Wednesday. Not too much happened over the weekend, other than Microsoft unleashing an Artificially Intelligent ChatBot on Twitter that quickly turned into a racist Trump supporter before having its plug pulled after just 15 hours of freedom. The other big news of the weekend was Bernie Sanders crushing Hillary in Washington, Alaska and Hawaii, tak...
    On March 28, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Consumer Spending & Income Growth Slow In February

    US personal income and spending ticked higher in February, but the year-over-year growth trend slowed on both counts, the Bureau of Economic Analysisreports. There’s still a positive trend in the numbers—enough to keep the economy expanding for the near-term future, but today’s numbers leave little room for arguing that growth is set to accelerate after what’s shaping up as a sluggish first quarter. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1% last month vs. January. That’s the third straight monthly advance at the 0.1% mark, the weakest run of growth in a year. Meanwhile, disposable personal income (DPI) grew at a bit fa...
    On March 28, 2016 / By