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Finance 0
U.S. Retail Stocks Slump, Oil Futures Surge
Crude oil futures rose 3.5 percent in overnight trading on Wednesday, following official data earlier in the day showing a 3.4-million drop in crude inventories and a fall in crude output to 8.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2014. June deliveries of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) were up US$1.57, or 3.5 percent, closing at US$46.23 per barrel on the New York exchange, the highest settlement since early November. Prices have surged 76% since their February low. July deliveries for Brent crude rose US$1.63, or 3.6 percent, to $47.15 per barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. During Asian hours o... -
Finance 0
Risk-Reward Not Attractive For GBP Longs Right Now – BNPP
The pound had its share of volatility in 2016 and the tendency is not necessarily to the upside, explains the team at BNP Paribas: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The recent slowing in the UK’s dataflow is compounding the effects of political uncertainties and keeping rates markets inclined to price for small risk of policy easing rather than the early 2017 rate hikes that we expect. BNP Paribas STEER was last week indicating that the GBP appears overvalued versus the USD, with the decline of cable bringing the pair back towards its STEER. The soft dataflow, in addition to the upcoming political risk, suggests that there is scope f... -
Finance 0
EU Bullet Report – Oil Surges Ahead Of Super Thursday
After a few quiet days, there are several important data releases today with Super Thursday for the UK standing out as the most important one. With Brexit looming over the horizon, it is very likely that the press conference following the rate decision will focus on the upcoming referendum with any views on it, to be thoroughly analyzed. Besides Brexit, there are three FOMC voting members scheduled to speak today. Stocks: Stock markets were hurt by disappointing earnings results of Disney (DIS) and Macy’s (M), reigniting concerns over consumer spending. DJIA dropped -217.23 pts, or -1.21% to close at 17711.12, revising this week’s gain. S... -
Finance 0
Euro Breaks From Trend Line
Yesterday’s Trading: The euro/dollar on Wednesday restored from 1.1370 to 1.1446. Over the course of the day, the euro bulls found support from the euro/pound cross rate. The pound weakened against the euro after UK industrial production and manufacturing data came out. The dollar was down during the American session after the US ministry of energy released its oil report for the week ending 6th May. Reserves had fallen by 3.4 million barrels to 540 million. A rise of 0.5 million had been expected. Oil extraction was also down from 8.825 to 8.802 million barrels. On this news oil shot up 5.5% to $47.7 and with it the euro. There weren’t ... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil May Extend Gains As Gold Falls On BOE Inflation Report
Gold prices moved higher in yesterday’s session, with the move seemingly reflecting a down-shift in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Indeed, the metal moved inversely with the policy bets implied in Fed Funds futures contracts. Follow-through failed to materialize overnight however dovish commentary from BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. The central bank chief stressed policymakers’ readiness to boost stimulus and warned that tightening may not occur within his tenure. This bolstered Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index and sent USD/JPY higher, which echoed as broader US Dollar strength around the financial markets. Gold... -
Finance 0
EC Is The Market Cheap? Three Things You Need To Know About Valuation, But Don’t
There is a general consensus that valuation indicators are not very useful for market timing. Despite this, the financial media and the blogosphere feature an avalanche of articles warning that the market is seriously overvalued. Your retirement account might drop 50% at any moment. There are countless worries in the world. Many investors have been “scared witless” (TM OldProf) by this, missing out on a great opportunity. Is it now too late? What is the current potential for market gains? Here are three things you do not know about valuation: The oft quoted indicators are not currently endorsed by their developers, only by those of the b... -
Finance 0
A Look At The EIA Report And Some General Market Commentary
The API Report tried to over correct from their previous two misses for weekly forecasts, and caused oil traders to be wrong footed going into the EIA Inventory Report. There was just massive volume following the report with no “fadeable” metrics for shorts to hang their hats on yesterday.... -
Finance 0
Reply From WSJ On “How Good Are The Jobs?”
In Jobs: How Good are the Jobs the Economy is Creating? I referenced a Wall Street Journal report on jobs by Joshua Zumbrun. I thought Zumbrun provided an excellent starting point for discussion. But I also noted what I labeled a “data error” as well as over-lapping categories that could lead to double-counting. I received a nice email from Zumbrun in response to my email to him. Hi Mish Thanks for the email. We were using subsectors here and the figure we have labeled “durable goods” is the “durable goods: wholesale trade” subsector. You can check that those numbers are correct here:https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series... -
Finance 0
Gold’s Best Quarter In 30 Years Is Just The Beginning
Last week, we reported that billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller is publicly advising investors to sell United States stocks and buy gold. Druckenmiller is now joined in his gold recommendation by an equally legendary hedge fund manager – Paul Singer. In a client letter at the end of April, Singer wrote: It makes a great deal of sense to own gold. Other investors may be finally starting to agree. Investors have increasingly started processing the fact that the world’s central bankers are completely focused on debasing their currencies… We believe the March quarter’s price action could represent something closer to the begin...
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