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Finance 0
Oil Price Vs US Dollar….”Chicken Or The Egg?”
“Davidson” submits: These updated charts show the relationship between $WTI and the Trade Weighted US$ Index Major Currencies. The 1st chart shows daily pricing from Jan 2015-Present while the 2ndchart provides a view from Jan 2010. Today’s pools of capital are seeking gains within the day-by-day trading frenzy. The least little shift is taken as the possibility of a new trend and capital shifts in anticipation. Most of the discussion today centers on whether it is oil or the US$ which is driving the correlation. This is like a discussion of which comes first, the ‘Chicken’ or the ‘Egg’. My perception is that the main d... -
Finance 0
Import And Export Price Year-Over-Year Deflation Moderated In April 2016
Trade prices continue to deflate year-over-year – although the rate of deflation declined this month. Import Oil prices were up 3.3 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices increased 0.5 %. with import prices up 0.3 % month-over-month,down 5.7 % year-over-year; and export prices up 0.5 % month-over-month, down5.0 % year-over-year.. the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg): Consensus Range Consensus Actual Export Prices – M/M change 0.1 % to 1.7 % +0.6 % +0.5 % Import Prices – M/M change -0.3 % to 0.5 % 0.0 % +0.3 % There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / imp... -
Finance 0
Buy, Hold, Or Sell? You Decide!
We’re sure it’ll be different this time. The Fed has our back. We’ve entered a new paradigm… Forget the 145 years of stock market history. CNBC says it’s always the right time to buy. Buy Amazon at $700. It’s surely going to $1,000. They’ll generate profits any year now. Source: The Burning Platform blog... -
Finance 0
The Answer To Investing In A Bubble Peak
About two weeks ago, I wrote an article about volatility. I was basically explaining that market timing was futile and investing in a high or in a low in the market has a very limited impact. This article was republished on SA. There were several investors over there who were happy to jump on the article to tell me that we were on a verge of a market collapse and that the stupidest move would be to invest at the moment. Their thesis is quite simple (man I should be damned to be so stupid!): The FED has created the current bullish market since 2009 with quantitative easings; Chinese market dropped by 50% last year; The economy is going nowhe... -
Finance 0
Tech & Bio-Tech; Both Breaking 8-year Support Lines
Bio-Tech and Tech have been stock market leaders for years and years. Below looks what these leading sectors are doing of late. Bio-Tech/SPX ratio (left chart above) broke below 5-year rising channel last year at (1). NDX/SPX ratio (right chart above) is attempting to bread 8-year rising support at (2). Should bulls be concerned that leadership is breaking support? Bio-Tech (IBB) continues to create a series of lower highs and lower lows since last summers highs. IBB kissed the underside of resistance at (1) and has backed off of late. Now IBB is testing weekly closing support at (2). If IBB would take out support at (2), selling press... -
Finance 0
New Jobless Claims: Up 20K, Highest Since February Of Last Year
Here is the opening statement from the Department of Labor: In the week ending May 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 294,000, an increase of 20,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 274,000. This is the highest level for initial claims since February 28, 2015 when it was 310,000. The 4-week moving average was 268,250, an increase of 10,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 258,000. There were no special factors impacting this week’s initial claims. This marks 62 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1973. [See full report] Today... -
Finance 0
Kohl’s Slides Amid Broader Sector Decline After Reporting Weak Q1 Sales
Shares of Kohl’s (KSS) slipped after the company reported weaker-than-expected sales for the first quarter, joining many sector peers in reporting downbeat results amid a particularly challenging retail environment. WHAT’S NEW: Before the market open, Kohl’s reported adjusted earnings per share for Q1 of 31c on revenue of $3.97B, falling short of analysts’ consensus estimates of 37c and $4.13B, respectively. Same-store sales for the quarter fell 3.9% year over year, the company said. Kohl’s chairman, president, and chief executive officer Kevin Mansell called Q1 sales “challenging” but that the compan... -
Finance 0
Advanced Manufacturing May Change The Rules Of Economic Development
As advanced manufacturing is about to accelerate in China, the rules of economic development could change across the world. About a year ago, China’s State Council unveiled a national plan, “Made in China 2025,” which seeks to upgrade China’s manufacturing base. The ultimate objective is to transform China into the leading global manufacturing power by 2049. The booming robotics is a prime example. China is already the world’s largest robotics market. By the year-end, it is expected to become the world’s leading producer. Foreign industry pioneers are giving way to Chinese robotics giants, such as Shenyang Siasun and Ningbo Tech... -
Finance 0
Rail Week Ending May 7, 2016: Rail Continues To Move Deeper Into Contraction
Week 18 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rolling averages continue moving deeper into contraction. The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data – and it continues to decline. There were port labor issues one year ago which affected intermodal movements – which skew the results both positively and negatively (this week again negatively as it is being compared to the shipping surge at the end of the strike). HOWEVER, one can i... -
Finance 0
US Retail Sales: April 2016 Preview
US retail sales are expected to rebound in tomorrow’s April report vs. the previous month, according to The Capital Spectator’s average point forecast for several econometric estimates. The average prediction reflects a 0.6% increase vs. the previous month’s spending total. Three projections via surveys of economists are looking for even stronger growth in April: a monthly gain of 0.8% to 1.0% for retail sales, based on a trio of consensus forecasts. Note that all the forecasts translate into an improvement for the year-over-year spending rate in April vs. the previously reported annual change. Here’s a closer look at the numbers, fol...
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