I Don’t Know These three words, almost never uttered in this business, are far and away the most critical to long-term investment success. Why? Because the future is unpredictable, but having the humility to admit that is very hard for us to do. We’re simply not wired that way and instead suffer from the behavioral bias of overconfidence. Which is to say we overestimate our own abilities when it comes to sports, trading, driving or anything else. While a little bit of confidence can be a good thing in many areas of life, overconfidence, particularly in the investment world, can be disastrous. With overconfidence comes the tendency to ove...
Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:16 — 6.1MB) DOW + 9 = 17,720 SPX – 0.35 = 2064 NAS – 23 = 4737 10 Y + .02 = 1.76% OIL + .16 = 46.39 GOLD – 13.50 = 1264.20 Stocks were up, then down and then finished fairly flat. The S&P 500 closed a touch lower, as declines in health care, tech and industrials offset gains in most sectors led by telecommunications. The Dow held onto a minor gain as Boeing (BA) moved higher and Apple (AAPL) briefly fell under $90, hitting a fresh 52-week intraday low. After a big up day followed by a big down day this week, the market couldn’t figure out which way to go. The num...
Because industrial production for the Eurozone was estimated to have risen 2.4% in January, first quarter GDP was boosted to 0.6% (quarterly rate) as statisticians were expecting that European industry would at least hold up the rest of the quarter. While not figuring the same blistering pace, the GDP figure suggested at least the European economy holding on to that gain. The latest update for IP through March, however, shows that was wishful thinking. In March, industrial production was believed to have dropped 0.8% after falling 1.2% in February. Instead of what was called robust GDP it leaves barely any of the January jump with which to ke...
Eaton (ETN) shares several characteristics with some of the companies we hold in our Top 20 Dividend Stocks portfolio. The company scores well for Dividend Safety and Dividend Growth, has paid dividends every year since 1923, generates excellent free cash flow, and has a relatively high dividend yield near 3.7%. Eaton’s stock also trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 14.2, which is a discount of approximately 15% compared to the broader market. Let’s take a closer look at Eaton and see if it makes the cut as one of our favorite blue chip dividend stocks. Business Overview Eaton is a large industrial conglomerate with ov...
Even though this is being written around a Friday the 13th, I suppose it is sort of fitting in a way. Things are clearly freaky in the world. Being pushed to the forefront are upcoming (and largely pointless IMHO) political elections while a whole bevy of goings on percolate in the not so distant background. Russia and the increasingly ominous rhetoric between the Kremlin and Washington. I am fairly certain that nobody wants or needs another war except for the various defense contractors, yet we are opening hostile fronts on now at least 4 continents – Europe, Asia, North America, and South America. Haven’t heard much about the South yet,...
Investors are a funny breed, they do the most unnatural things and the most contrarian trades at the worst possible times. Investing is one of the most expensive hobby’s as one loses money instead of making money. That’s what we see with gold mining shares today … again. Few investors seem to understand how to make money at the stock market, they forget that investing can create enormous amounts of wealth. Now is the time for gold mining shares to make investors rich, but no one wants to take the bite. This is the proof. Gold mining ETF GDX jumped 65% the last 12 months, but at the same time investors pulled out more than $0.5 billion. ...
EURUSD: With EURUSD reversing its Wednesday gains on Thursday, further downside pressure is likely. Support lies at the 1.1350 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1250 level. A break of here will target the 1.1200 level. Conversely, on the upside, resistance comes in at 1.1450 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.1500 level. Further up, resistance lies at the 1.1550 level where a break will expose the 1.1600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. All in all, EURUSD faces a move lower after reversing its gains on ...
“Two-thirds of the directors at the New York Fed are hand-picked by the same bankers that the Fed is in charge of regulating. Today, the United States is No. 1 in corporate profits, No. 1 in CEO salaries, No. 1 in childhood poverty, and No. 1 in income and wealth inequality in the industrialized world. Today, the top one-tenth of 1% owns nearly as much wealth as the bottom 90%. The economic game is rigged, and this level of inequality is unsustainable. We need an economy that works for all, not just the powerful. I think what the American people are saying is enough is enough. This country, this great country, belongs to all of us. It c...
We have shown lately than many of our indicators and quite some markets have arrived at critical levels: stocks and gold are at crossroads, bonds and treasuries are at inflection points, and the bonds to stocks ratio is suggesting that both markets are looking for a (new) trend. Here is another indicator which underlines the same observation: the Dow Jones Transportation Index and crude oil. Both assets have a strategic importance, both because of their economic value and barometer. Below chart shows that the transportation index (red chart line) is moving within a multi-year trading range, but support is being tested right now. Simul...
During the Friday session, we will get GDP numbers coming out above Germany and the European Union, and as a result we could get a bit of volatility in Europe itself. We also get Core Retail Sales coming out of the United States with core PPI, and University of Michigan Consumer Cinnamon numbers. With this, we look at the following 3 assets: DAX rallies again The German market rose during the course of the session on Thursday after initially trying to fall, and it looks as if the market is trying to form some type of base in the region of €10,000 at this point. Call buyers continue to and are this market, every time we pullback as it looks ...