by John Benjamin EURUSD Daily Analysis EUR/USD (1.13): EUR/USD formed an inside bar yesterday and on the 4-hour chart, we notice prices slipping back to the support. The euro sits near a critical price level of 1.13716 where a daily close below this level could see the support level give way and open the euro for further declines to 1.12170. Alternately, should price managed to turn bullish above 1.13716, the expected bullish move should see prices test 1.14975 resistance. USD/JPY Daily Analysis USD/JPY (108.8): USDJPY was bullish but failed to post any highs. With the expected retest to 107.955 support anticipated, any further upside...
The anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars traded lower as investors’ mood soured in overnight trade. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index fell 1 percent. S&P 500 futures are pointing sharply lower ahead, hinting the risk-off mood is aiming to carry through into the final hours of the trading week. On the economic data front, US news-flow returns to the spotlight as retail sales figures and a gauge ofconsumer confidence from the University of Michigan cross the wires. The former reading is expected to show receipts added 0.8 percent in April, marking t...
Yesterday’s Trading: By the end of Thursday, the euro/dollar had closed up. On the one hand, the close of the day was at 1.1375: a positive thing for the sellers for them to continue the fall to 1.1275. On the other hand, the reasons for the dollar’s strengthening after weak US labor market data are unclear. The euro restored to 1.1414 after the news, but it couldn’t keep above 1.1400 and fell to 1.1370. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US for the last week rose to 294k (forecasted: 270k). The number neared the 300k mark. Market Expectations: This Friday the 13th sees trader attention on Eurozone and US data....
It is not possible to coherently discuss the “New Normal” economy without discussing financialization–the substitution of credit expansion and speculation for productive investments in the real economy–and its sibling: globalization. Globalization is the result of the neoliberal push to lower regulatory barriers to trade and credit in overseas markets. The basic idea is that global trade lowers costs and offers more opportunities for capital to earn profits. This expansion of credit in developing markets creates more employment opportunities for people previously bypassed by the global economy. Though free trade is oft...
The Australian dollar dipped its feet to a new low under 0.73 and continues feeling the RBA pressure. There may be more to come: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: RBA not finished cutting rates, China woes to resurface The RBA has not finished cutting interest rates, and markets should refocus on China woes in H2. AUD/USD is lagging the dovish pricing of rates, the technical picture shows vulnerability and long positioning is stretched. We think that the timing is now right to reset bearish AUD positions via options, since the RBA is not finished making cuts and China woes should undermine confidence again in H2. In the volatility spa...
USD is firm today after several Fed Members supported the case for rate hikes this year. On the data front, Germany and Eurozone GDP will be the main focus in European session. US will release retail sales, PPI, business inventories and U of Michigan sentiment. Stocks: Overnight, US Stocks were mixed in a volatile session as OIL prices fluctuated in wild swings And as Apple stocks hovered to its lowest level in 2 years. DJ gained 9.38 or 0.05% to 17,720.50, while the NASDAQ lost 23.36 or 0.49% to 4,737.33, extending losses from the previous session. Asian shares mostly drifted lower on Friday with the focus on monthly U.S. retail and consu...
After issuing a record $1 trillion in combined bank and shadow loans in the first quarter which just like during the financial crisis provided a short-term boost to global growth (while sending China’s debt/GDP to all time highs)… … China’s dramatic debt issuance binge is about to hit a brick wall. According to MarketNews, Chinese bank loan growth is expected to slow sharply in April compared with March as the pillar of bank lending, mortgage loans, slowed as the property market cooled. Citing bank officials, the news service said that robust first-quarter lending almost depleted their resources, making it diffic...
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market initially rallied during the course of the session on Thursday but struggled above the $47 handle. Appears that the market is simply looking for a little bit of momentum building to continue going higher. There is a lot of noise between here and the $50 level so it’s difficult to imagine that is going to be a fairly easy move. I think that every time we pullback on short-term charts you have to look at it as a potential value play, but recognize that you will probably have to play several trades to the upside in order to actually profit. Otherwise, the volatility may be a bit much for many of you to ha...
The FED will not be capable of raising interest rates at all this year. This is exactly what President Obama, Vice President Biden and Dr. Yellen had discussed in their most secretive meeting which occurred on April 11, 2016: Obama meeting Yellen. President Obama wants his legacy, as the president of the U.S., to be a positive one. The FED will not capable of ‘financial engineering’ the economy into explosiveness, that we all desire. This equation would eliminate the ‘Republicans’ greatest campaign pitch which is that the economy is ‘weak’. Take that theory out of the election process and the ‘Republicans’ will lose their best...
Retail department store sales are in a funk. Macy’s, Nordstrom, Dillards, Kohl’s, and Ralph Lauren have all reported dismal sales or profits. On Wednesday, Macy’s reported the worst quarterly sales since recession. On Thursday, Nordstrom did the same. Same store sales fell at Nordstrom for the first time since 2009. Kohl’s posted an 87% drop in profit and an unexpected decline in sales. The stores struggle to explain why consumers are not spending. Analysts blame Amazon. Is Amazon the culprit? Macys Macy’s Reignites Retail Worries The company’s poor results and downbeat comments Wednesday triggered a selloff across app...