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Finance 0
E The Daily Shot And Data – May 13, 2016
Greetings, Let us begin with emerging markets. 1. South Africa’s mining production dropped by 18% from a year ago – a record decline. This report sent some analysts back to the drawing board, with growth projections downgraded again. h/t Jonathan 2. Romania and Poland remain in deflation. Will both see stabilization as energy prices move higher? Source: Investing.com 3. Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment is moving forward as Brazil’s interim President Michel Temer takes over. While many can point to Rousseff’s poor leadership and populist tactics, proving that her actions were criminal in nature may be challenging... -
Finance 0
Nordstrom, Dillard’s, J.C. Penney Results Add To Sector Woes
Shares of several department retailers dropped in morning trading after reporting quarterly sales declines, joining a collection of sector peers that are also experiencing sales weakness amid a difficult retail environment. NORDSTROM: After the market close yesterday, Nordstrom (JWN) reported Q1 EPS of 26c on revenue of $3.2B, falling short of analysts’ expectations of 46c and $3.28B, respectively. Same-store sales for the quarter fell 1.7% year-over-year, the company said. In addition, the retailer slashed its FY16 adjusted EPS guidance range to $2.50-$2.70 from $3.10-$3.35 and cut its revenue growth view for the year to 2.5%-4.5% from... -
Finance 0
China Hard Landing Spreads: Hong Kong GDP Tumbles At Fastest Pace Since Financial Crisis
In the latest indication of contracting global growth, overnight Hong Kong reported that its Q1 GDP fell off a cliff 0.4% qoq, widly missing estimates of 0.1% growth as retail sales plummeted and the property market continued its collapse. On a y/y basis, the economy grew only 0.8% when compared to the same period last year, less than half the 1.9% y/y growth reflected in Q4. Hong Kong’s economy grew only 2.4% in 2015, half the pace of 2011, as a slowdown in mainland China and a weaker yuan curbed Chinese spending, while a volatile stock market also hit domestic consumption. “At least over the next five to six months, we don... -
Finance 0
E BoE: All Members Shared The Same Opinion
All the world’s eyes were on Thursday’s BoE (Bank of England) meeting regarding the prospects of the monetary policy. The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) voted with a unanimous 9-0 for maintaining the main rate unchanged at 0.5%, as investors expected. Also, the Committee agreed with the same voting formation to keep at 375 billion pounds the asset purchasing program. At the same meeting, the BoE revised lower its growth projections for this year and the next two years: the 2016 forecast was revised to 2.0% economic growth from previous 2.2% while 2017’s expectation was lowered to 2.3% from 2.4% and 2018’s perspectiv... -
Finance 0
US Retail Sales Post Sharp Rebound In April
Consumer spending revived in April after slumping in March, the US Census Bureau reports. Today’s update offers new support for arguing that economic growth will strengthen in the second quarter after virtually grinding to a halt in Q1, based on GDP data. Retail spending jumped 1.3% last month, delivering a healthy contrast to March’s 0.3% slide. More importantly, the year-over-year rate picked up for headline spending. Consumption increased 3.0% for the 12 months through April—a healthy rebound after March’s weak 1.7% year-over-year advance. “This is all part and parcel of the consumption numbers coming more in line with the inco... -
Finance 0
E Taking Profits On Our FXE Put Spread
We’ve got another big win here, picking up a nice 12.50% in just 5 trading days. We have captured 91.66% of the maximum potential profit in the Currency Shares Euro Trust (FXE) May, 2016 $113-$116 in-the-money vertical bear put spread. Time to take the money and run. This way we cut our currency risk in half and have dry powder with which to reenter the position at a later date. If you have the ProShares Ultra Short Euro ETF (EUO), the 2X short Euro fund. Keep it. The Euro is going lower. As you make recall from out original trade alert, our reasons for selling short the Euro last week were somewhat complicated. While the April nonfarm payo... -
Finance 0
S&P 500 And Nasdaq 100 Forecast For May 13, 2016
S&P 500 The S&P 500 went back and forth during the course of the session on Thursday, testing the 2060 level for support. This is a market that ultimately has quite a bit of bullish pressure underneath it. That being said, I do believe that it is only a matter of time before we break out to the upside, and a move above the top of the range since this market is looking for the 2080 handle, and then eventually the 2100 level. Eventually, we will get above the 2100 level, and it becomes more or less a “buy and hold” situation. That being said, I also believe that the currency falling in the United States of course will help exports, ... -
Finance 0
US Retail Sales Beat Big – USD Rises
Finally some good news from the US: retail sales beat expectations on all measures and all the revisions are to the upside. Headline sales advanced 1.3%, the control group by 0.9% and core sales by 0.8%, all are beat. Upwards revisions are between +0.1% to +0.3%. The US dollar is extending its gains with no currency spared. US retail sales were expected to bounce back in April, with a rise of 0.8% in the headline number, 0.5% in core retail sales and +0.3% in the control group. This is a top tier release as consumption is a major part of the US economy. The figure mixed expectations too many times in the past year or so. The US dollar was lo... -
Finance 0
Collapse Of M&A Bubble Bloodies Hedge Funds
After years of a giddy boom in mergers and acquisitions with ever sillier valuations (made possible by an endless flow of easy money from yield-starved investors and fee-hungry banks, under the eyes of regulators who’d conveniently fallen asleep)…the M&A bubble is now collapsing (US targeted new M&A volume has plunged 21% from a year ago) and many hedge funds that were into merger arbitrage got caught on the wrong side of the bet. Written by Wolf Richter (wolfstreet.com) Merger arbitrage is a bet that an announced acquisition gets completed. With the announcement, the share price of the target company shoots up to somewhere n...
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