The Eurogroup reported progress but basically kicked the can down the road on the umpteenth round of the Greek crisis. Strong German GDP was not enough to help the euro against the greenback’s strength. In the US, retail sales beat expectations quite impressively and other figures did not stand in the way of general dollar strength that prevailed throughout the week. Are we at the beginning of a downtrend? Updates: EUR/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. ...
VIX bounced from its Pennant formation trendline closing above its Short-term support at 14.60. This maintains a potential aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal). A breakout above the weekly high at 17.09 may confirm the signal. Further confirmation lies above the mid-Cycle resistance at 15.87 and Intermediate-term resistance at 17.33. (ZeroHedge) Over the past two weeks we observed two curious, vol-related phenomena. First, it was Tom DeMark cautioning that even as stocks have surged, the amount of VXX shares outstanding has soared to record highs, a seemingly contradictory confluence of events because it suggested that investors, t...
The confidence in the European banking system is decreasing on an almost daily basis. Six years after the global financial crisis, most of the European banks are still struggling to meet the minimum requirements of the regulatory bodies that are supervising the ‘health’ of the financial system. After the GFC, the European system had to deal with a Greek, Italian, Portuguese and Spanish crisis, and several banks needed to be bailed out through either a straight ‘nationalization’ or a ‘government-incentivized’ merger with a stronger counter party (which was used in both Spain and Portugal). One would think that in all these years th...
After recent (and in some cases very dramatic) bearish conversions by the likes of JPM, BofA (BAC), Citi (C) and UBS, the only bank that steadfastly held a bullish view on stocks during the recent market squeeze higher was Goldman Sachs (GS). Not any more. On Thursday, Goldman strategist David Kostin appeared on CNBC, where he too joined the bearish crowd and said that based on the threat of margin collapse (“35 out of 53 tech companies had margin declines”) and record-high stock valuations this year, it’s time to play defense in “a tough market.” He also hinted that with 80% of fund managers underperformi...
The US dollar continued the recovery begun May 3 and rose against most of the major currencies over the past week. A nearly 3.5% rally in oil prices, the fifth weekly gain in the past six weeks (a $9.5 advance over the period), helped the Norwegian krone turn in a steady performance. The Canadian dollar’s 0.2% decline put it in second place. With the strongest rise in US retail sales in a year, prompting the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker to rise to 2.8% for Q2, many observers are linking the dollar’s strength to a greater risk of Fed tightening. While we are sympathetic to the idea that the market was underestimating the like...
Up until late April the market was on one incredible rally. Day after day, week after week, all stocks could do was go up, up, up. We even saw the market get within 27 points – less than 2% – from establishing new all-time highs. But now, “Sell in May, Go Away” is picking up credence again, and like this time last year, investors and traders alike are left wondering whether the market has peaked for the year. For the month of May, the market is already down nearly 1%, and based on the head and shoulders pattern, it looks like next week and the weeks ahead could offer up some similar results. But not so for trade...
After a week in which all the big retailers—Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom’s (JWN), Gap (GPS), JC Penney (JCP), Dillard’s (DDS)—reported exceedingly downbeat results for their April quarter, it is not surprising that the Census Bureau’s statistical fabrication mill reported robust April retail sales. Likewise, you could count on the financial press to trot out the superlatives, as in the case of the Reuters’ headline proclaiming, “U.S. retail sales rise strongly, boost economic outlook”: U.S. retail sales in April recorded their biggest increase in a year as Americans stepped up purchases of automobiles and a r...
After a week in which all the big retailers—Macy’s (M), Kohl’s (KSS), Nordstrom’s (JWN), Gap (GPS), JC Penney (JCP), Dillard’s (DDS)—reported exceedingly downbeat results for their April quarter, it is not surprising that the Census Bureau’s statistical fabrication mill reported robust April retail sales. Likewise, you could count on the financial press to trot out the superlatives, as in the case of the Reuters’ headline proclaiming, “U.S. retail sales rise strongly, boost economic outlook”: U.S. retail sales in April recorded their biggest increase in a year as Americans stepped up purchases of automobiles and a r...