Another week of volatility, but with no real resolution to the burning question of “where do we go next?” Is this a continuation of the broadening topping process that began 15 months ago? Or, are the markets setting up the next bullish advance to all-time highs? Unfortunately, while we can all speculate, the reality is that we will not know for certain until a decision has been made. As such, this is why I have kept long-term investment models conservatively allocated up to this point and still maintain a 50%+ exposure to cash. The reasoning is simple. If the markets re-establish the bullish trend, I can rotate from the safety of “c...
EUR/USD Weekly Chart Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT See REAL TIME trader positioning -FXTW wrote last week that “EUR/USD broke through (resistance) on an intraweek basis but finished the week with a long upper wick that warns of a ‘bull trap’. It seems right to be (long term) bullish given the 31 year trendline support but the breakout may have to wait a bit. As always, define your risk points (read more about traits of successful traders here).” EUR/USD followed through on last week’s reversal. Bulls are probably ‘trapped’ until the mid-1.1000s. -For forecasts and 2016 opportunities, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. G...
Pension Funds oftentimes are just duplicating existing market strategies and exposure by allocating capital to Hedge Funds while paying higher costs for underperforming a simple SPY Long position the last 7 years. Video length: 00:13:00 ...
U.S. stocks fell on Friday after earnings reports from major retailers and depressed sales projections kept came in way below forecasted numbers. A decline in oil prices added additional pressure to consumer companies. The poor retail earnings overshadowed upbeat April retail sales data as numbers released by the Commerce Department on Friday showed a 1.3 percent gain in retail spending by consumers in March, exceeding analyst expectations of a modest 0.8 percent gain. The news was positive enough to send some retailers’ stock back up on Friday. One massive retailer that’s bucking the trend was Amazon (AMZN) which posted a 28 percent incr...
Ever since merchants changed out payment terminals last October in order to comply with new rules and accept chip cards, merchants are seeing expenses relating to debit transaction fees increasing, in some cases as much as 20%. The reason stems from transaction terminals being set up to steer transactions in such a way that will generate the most revenue for the data processing company. As the Chicago Tribune explains In the past year, many merchants changed their payment terminals so consumers could use the newfangled cards. The problem is that about two-thirds of the new readers at smaller retailers aren’t set up right, according...
Reader Peter is concerned about the future of jobs, living wages, and displaced workers in a robotic society. Specifically, Peter asks “how do you think the evolution of robotics will play out?” Hello Mish At dinner with friends last evening, we discussed the idealistic thought that robots could one day serve the needs of mankind, allowing us to pursue our interests as we want, without the heavy constraint of having to work to sustain our existence. I cannot imagine myself not wanting to build and achieve things. But it sure would be enabling if I could choose where I put my efforts based on my personal set of priorities. While discussing...
GBP/JPY: The cross continues to face downside pressure as we enter a new week. On the downside, support comes in at the 155.00 level where a violation will aim at the 154.00 level. A break below here will target the 153.00 level followed by the 152.00 level. Conversely, resistance is seen at the 156.00 level followed by the 157.00 level. A cut through that level will set the stage for a move further higher towards the 158.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 159.00 level. All in all, GBP/JPY looks to weaken further following a loss of its upside momentum. ...
Traders haven’t needed a crystal ball to recognize market probabilities that we’ve been outlining, evolving over these past several weeks. Now, technicians of course will view this through a prism and debate prospects of the S&P breaking the lows of a week ago Friday, very nearly matching the very early April lows. In my opinion the broad market, as I’ve mentioned before, already has done this (referencing the NYSE Composite Index and even the Dow Industrial Average). The rotational influences in the S&P actually allowed enough relatively mundane sectors to be moved into in ‘attempts’ to offset the weakne...
Is it time to sell emerging market equities? According to Morgan Stanley’s Asset Managers May 13, 2016, flows report it might be time to do just that, although most “contrarian” investors will conclude that this could be a great time to buy. According to the report, emerging market-focused mutual funds and ETFs saw their largest weekly outflows since September of 2015 last week as the investor exodus from the sector continued. Sell emerging markets: General equity exodus The equity exodus wasn’t just limited to emerging markets. Developed market ETFs and mutual funds also saw strong outflows. Domestic US equity funds were the prima...
Not so long ago, US farmland, whose prices were until recently rising exponentially, was considered by many to be the next asset bubble. Then, exactly one year ago, the fairy tale officially ended, and as reported in February, US farmland saw its first price drop since 1986. It was also about a year ago when looking ahead, very few bankers expected price appreciation and more than a quarter of survey respondents expect cropland values to continue declining. They were right. According to several regional Fed reports released last Thursday, real farmland values in parts of the Midwest fell at their fastest clip in almost 30 years during the f...