During the strong rally out of the February lows, 7 day momentum and sentiment for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) generated from the Twitter stream only had on minor move above zero. Daily prints for Twitter sentiment continue with a pattern of prints mostly below zero. That pattern has been in place since July 2015. Market participants just can’t get bullish. On the bright side, since late February, they aren’t getting very bearish either. Another important pattern on this chart is the triangle being painted by 7 day momentum. If the triangle is broken the odds favor a sustained move by price in the same direction. You can see the daily Tw...
This article provides the Currency Classification for the coming weeks based on my analysis for the 8 major currencies. This is based on the technical analysis charts using the MACD and Ichimoku indicator on 4 time frames: the monthly, weekly, daily and 4 hours. The result of the technical analysis are the Currency Classifications charts in this article. ______________________________________  Last 3 months currency classification updated on Week 20, 15 May 2016 The last 3 months currency classification from a longer term perspective are provided here with the new charts: Strong: JPY / CAD / CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8. Ave...
Stocks ended the week lower after a number of the nation’s most prominent department store and apparel retailers, led by Macy’s (M), offered disappointing sales reports and dismal forecasts on their near-term results. MACRO NEWS: In the U.S., retail sales rose 1.3% month-over-month in April, versus expectations for an increase of 0.8%. The core reading, which excludes autos and gas, was up 0.6%, versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%. The producer price index was up 0.2% month-over-month, versus expectations for an increase of 0.3%, while the core PPI reading was up 0.1%, matching expectations. Business inventories bounced 0....
Before I begin my macro prospective I’ll give you a couple of fundamental reasons why I like A&D stocks and why I have added to my position in many of the major players (NOC, LMT, RTN) in the last few months. Then I’ll begin my geopolitical analysis, and how you may be able to play individual global developments: While Obama has cut the defense budget every year in office, defense stocks have held strong and continued to rally, showing resilience despite decreasing earmarked defense spending While overall defense budgets from countries outside the US (mainly democratic countries in Western Europe) have downsized, such spendi...
Monday: April’s Producer Price Index will be released in Japan. In the U.S., May’s Empire Manufacturing Index will see light. In Russia, Advance Q1 Gross Domestic Product data will see light, with analysts expecting a 2% contraction vs. -3.8% in the previous quarter. Tuesday: The final March Industrial Production estimate will be released in Japan. In the U.K., April’s Consumer Price Index will see light, with the analyst consensus expecting annual inflation to remain stable at 0.5%. April Housing Starts data will see light in the U.S., with analysts expecting continued strength at 1,125K. April Consumer Price Index data will also be ...
As we have pointed out many times in the past (most recently here), the jobs “recovery” has gone disproportionately to older workers at the expense of younger workers. In fact, as Bloomberg points out, the employment-to-population ratio for those 65 and over is at its highest level since the early 1960’s. This creates a bottleneck for younger workers who are looking to move up from their current roles, and also those that are trying to gain entry level employment but can’t until the current occupiers of those seats can move up. The situation doesn’t appear to be on the verge of getting any better either, asÂ...
After nearly half a decade of being shunned, gold is finally shining once again. Hedge funds are flocking to the asset in droves, but just buying this yellow metal isn’t enough, there are even better plays to buy today. Gold is back over $1,300 an ounce for the first time in sixteen months after its best quarter in 30 years. This has pushed the SPDR Gold TrustETF (NYSEARCA: GLD) up nearly 20% this year, which comes after falling for three straight years. Back in 2014, we said it was time to sell gold and buy regional banks and airlines. Things have changed a lot since then. Investors are losing confidence in central banks and their abili...
For analyzing the best pairs to trade looking from a longer term perspective the last 3 months Currency Classification can be used in support. This was updated on 24 April 2016 and is provided here for reference purposes: Strong: JPY, CAD, CHF. The preferred range is from 6 to 8. Average: USD, AUD, NZD. The preferred range is from 3 to 5. Weak: EUR, GBP. The preferred range is from 1 to 2. The charts were provided in the article:  “Forex Currency Score Classification for Wk20”. ______________________________________ 13 Weeks Currency Score Strength for Week 20 / 15 May 2016 The 13 Weeks Currency Strength and the 13 Weeks Ave...
Disney (DIS) took top honors at the box office for a fifth straight weekend as “Captain America: Civil War” grossing $72.6M in the U.S., falling shy of a forecasted $77M-$85M range. The superhero film has brought in $296M domestically and $645M in foreign markets. Box Office Runners Up “The Jungle Book,” also from Disney, added $17.8M in its fifth week, reaching a cumulative domestic total of $312M. Sony’s (SNE) financial thriller “Money Monster,” directed by Jodie Foster and starring George Clooney, debuted at $15M against forecasts of $10M-$13M. Also opening this weekend was High Top Releasing’...
The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets. Big Picture 15th May 2016 Last week I highlighted short GB...