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Brexit Seems Less Likely – GBP Rises
As June 23rd draws near and the local elections are behind us, the number of polls regarding the EU referendum intensifies. And the most recent ones seem more favorable to the Remain camp, contrary to the previous ones which showed a very tight race. While the picture remains mixed, the pound does take advantage of these reports, also taking advantage of the lack of direction currently characterizing the dollar and also the euro and the yen. Recent Brexit Polls A poll by ORB shows the Remain campaign well ahead with 55% against 40% for the Leave camp. This is an increase of 4% in the gap in comparison to the firm’s previous poll. The pol... -
Finance 0
WTI Crude Oil And Natural Gas Forecast – 5/17/2016
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market rose during the course of the day on Monday, as we continue to see quite a bit of bullishness in this market. During the day, Goldman Sachs suggested that the excess supply is starting to dwindle, and if that’s the case it should continue to drive this market a bit higher. However, there is a lot of psychological importance when it comes to the $50 handle just above. It’s not until we get above there that it becomes a “buy-and-hold” market. In the meantime, short-term pullbacks could be buying opportunities for short-term trades only. After all, this is a market that’s been very volatile and ha... -
Finance 0
T2108 Update – Another Buyer’s Surprise Signals Chop Ahead
(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs) T2108 Status: 57.1%T2107 Status: 56.8%VIX Status: 14.7General (Short-term) Trading Call: bearishActive T2108 periods: Day #65 over 20%, Day #64 over 30%... -
Finance 0
FX Technical Outlook: Can EUR/USD Find Support At 1.13?
EUR/USD (1.13) was limited in its price action yesterday, closing in a near doji looking pattern. Price action remains stuck near 1.130 a level that has held up since last Friday’s retail sales boost to the US dollar. A break below 1.30 could accelerate declines in EUR/USD for a move to 1.1220, where the next minor support exists. This dip could potentially signal the end of the medium term uptrend as any rallies will be capped near this new resistance of 1.130 – 1.1373. Below 1.1220, the next main cluster of supports is seen at 1.107 through 1.10285. An alternate view is the bullish flag which still has potential to see an upside move in... -
Finance 0
UK Inflation Misses – GBP/USD Loses Ground
UK inflation slips back down: prices rise only 0.3% y/y and 0.1% m/m in the month of April. Core inflation is up only 1.2% against 1.4% expected. While the change in the Easter holiday can be blamed as well as air fares, this isn’t good news for the BOE. GBP/USD loses some of its upside momentum and dips under 1.45. Will this significant miss have a significant impact or will we return to the Brexit based movements in no-time? Here is how it looks on the charts. As it happens many times with UK releases, the move to the downside began before the actual publication. Support awaits at 1.4440 followed by 1.4350. Resistance remains at 1.4510. ... -
Finance 0
The Meaning Of Sterling And Aussie’s Advance Today
The US dollar is mostly weaker today. It appears to be consolidating the gains scored since the reversal on May 3. Sterling and the Australian dollar are leading the way early in Europe. The Australian dollar’s gains appear more intuitively clear. The minutes from the recent RBA meeting indicated that it was a closer decision. This means that a follow-up rate cut next month is unlikely, which is what we have argued. While short-term participants may be surprised today, the medium-term outlook has not changed. It seems likely that the RBA may still need to ease monetary policy. The resilience of the Australian dollar yesterda... -
Finance 0
Gold Prices May Break Familiar Range On US Inflation Data
April’s US CPI report looms large for commodity prices. The headline inflation rate is expected to tick higher to a year-on-year rate of 1.1 percent, the highest in four months. The core measure excluding energy and food prices is seen edging slightly lower to 2.1 from 2.2 percent in the prior month. Perhaps most significantly, the spread between headline and core inflation reading is forecast to drop to a three-month low of 1 percent. This may offer support to Fed officials’ argument that transitory headwinds holding down price growth will dissipate, paving the way for further interest rate hikes. An outcome encouraging a hawkish shift... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD Forex Signal 5/17/2016
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signals were not triggered. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% Trades may only be entered between 8am and 5pm London time today. Long Trades Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1273 or 1.1234. Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit. Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride. Short Trades Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediate... -
Finance 0
Bull Of The Day: Hecla Mining
Just last week, when asked, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that she “would not completely rule out the use of negative interest rates in some future very adverse scenario.” The use of negative interest rates are already being utilized in Japan, and Central banks in Europe. Currently Europe has a -0.4% interest rate, and Japan has a -0.1% interest rate. Further, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that they could match the -0.4% interest rate in Europe if conditions become worse. Just imagine what people and Europe and Japan are facing; you have to pay to keep your money in the bank. Because of this, many peop... -
Finance 0
Brexit Q&A: What Traders Need To Know About Britain’s Upcoming Referendum
We’re six weeks away from Britain’s referendum on European Union (EU) membership, and the race appears closer than ever. Should the United Kingdom stay in the European Union or go its separate way? British voters will have the opportunity to express their views on June 23 in what has been described as the most crucial referendum in modern European history. For traders, Brexit carries very real consequences. While the extent of those consequences aren’t fully known yet, the global financial markets will be on high alert in the weeks and days leading up to the vote. With both the ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ camps in full campaign mode, i...
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