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Finance 0
The Fed Needs To Raise Rates At The June And December Meetings
It is obvious that the unintended consequences of ZIRP have destroyed financial market structure which ultimately flows through to the broader economy. All the financials, the layoffs on Wall Street, and the way assets are trading in the financial markets in general illustrate that financial markets are not healthy right now, and slowly deteriorating every year since the initial benefits of the sugar induced euphoric high of Quantitative Easing Policies by Central Banks around the world has burned off. An orderly exit by central banks is the best possible solution for trying to resuscitate some semblance of normal functioning financial ma... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD: Minimum Could Update Before FOMC Minutes
Yesterday’s Trading: On Tuesday the euro/dollar closed slightly down, leaving the shade at a 1.1348 maximum. I can’t explain what caused the turnaround for the euro after the inflation report came out up. Perhaps it was because of rising oil prices. When it became clear that the US April CPI came out better than expected, the euro/dollar fell to 1.1301. We didn’t see any dollar rally due to the positive manufacturing production data. The US manufacturing production index in April was 0.7% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: -0.9%). Construction of new housing was also up, but that also couldn’t bring the dollar up with it. Yesterday’s stat... -
Finance 0
Up – Down – Sideways? What Is Going On?
Of course the markets have been causing losses among the bulls as well as the bears. This is what they do and MUST do before they can actually make a decisive move of the nature we are looking at ahead. It becomes rather amusing to what the so called professions end up constantly wrong so they start bruding and proclaiming this feels like 2000 or 2007 before the crash. Nevertheless, our proprietary Golden Rule of the 3 Attempts (TM) is a very important tool to comprehend. (details will be at the Technical Training Course). The 2000 high was a Phase Transition in the NASDAQ DOT.COM Bubble. When we look at the Dow, we still see a high, but ... -
Finance 0
Crude Oil Prices May Turn From 7-Month High On FOMC Minutes
Crude oil prices rose to a seven-month high, with the WTI contract claiming a foothold above the $48/bbl figure after a private-sector estimate from API showed inventories fell by 1.14 million barrels last week. Newswires likewise pointed to continued supply disruption in Canada as a catalyst, noting that wildfires forced Suncor Energy to evacuate three sites it was aiming to restart. Meanwhile, gold prices failed to find a lasting catalyst in US CPI data. Prices initially rose after the release registered in line with expectations, seemingly offering nothing to discourage the markets dovish Fed policy outlook. This would soon change howev... -
Finance 0
Amazon To Power To Greater Heights
Amazon vs Wallmart The electronic commerce and cloud computing company, Amazon, which is based in Seattle, Washington is once again outpacing its own achievements and looks to be infinitely growing. Amazon, who surpassed Walmart as the most valuable retailer in the United States by market capitalization, is looking to make history once more. The firm is on the path to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion, with its Web Service being a primary contributor to this. Moreover, the firm looks to diversify itself into the logistical sector and thus giving it control over its own carrying channels. The success of Amazon has even lead to som... -
Finance 0
BofA: “If You Go Down To The Woods Today It Will Be Full Of Bears”
Just days after Bank of America’s equity team joined Goldman, JPM, Citi, UBS and pretty much every other bank (and Gartman) forecasting a market drop in the imminent future with a report laying out “Nine “Reasons To Worry” About A Big Market Drop”, BofA’s cross asset team led by chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett is out with some of his own words of “encouragement”, to wit. If you go down to the woods today… it will be full of bears. Investors positioned for “summer of shocks”: FMS cash levels up from 5.4% to a high 5.5%; only 12% taking “higher-than-normal” risk; most crowd... -
Finance 0
Irregular Home Construction Might Be QE Leftovers
Home construction estimates continue to suggest the same kinds of economic imbalances unchanged from last year. While construction of single family homes had been rising, that increase was not nearly as widespread and voluminous to indicate that the real estate market had been restored by full economic restoration (jobs, jobs, jobs). Apartment construction, on the other hand, has been scaled back significantly of late. Multi-family permits had dropped to just 318k SAAR in March from above 500k as late as November. At barely more than 300k, it was the lowest indication of future apartment construction since the summer of 2013. There was only a... -
Finance 0
Goldman Downgrades Stocks Over Next 12 Months Due To Risk Of Sharp Market Drop
Having pointed out the gathering storm in VIX ETPs, raised concerns of a “reasonably high probability” of a large drop in stocks, and explained how complacently short-term risk is being priced, Goldman’s portfolio strategy team have unleashed a dramatic warning. Shifting to an overweight cash position for the next 3 months, Goldman warns “we downgrade equities to Neutral over 12 months on growth and valuation concerns. Until we see sustained earnings growth, equities do not look attractive, especially on a risk-adjusted basis.” Markets have been calmer and cross-asset correlations with oil have fallen since... -
Finance 0
Swing Trading Watch-List – May 18, 2016
Here’s your swing-trading watch-list: Short Aflac (AFL) Short Air Leasing (AL) Short eBay (EBAY) Long J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM) Long Bank of America (BAC)... -
Finance 0
A Reluctant Market Nudges The Expected Timing For Fed Rate Hikes
The message is clear: the U.S. Federal Reserve WANTS to hike rates a few more times this year. Various Fed officials started this week with speeches and interviews discussing their desire to hike rates again as early as June and for a total of two or three hikes in 2016. The response is also clear: financial markets remain very skeptical that the Fed can or will get away with more than one rate hike this year. The odds for a hike in June remain a paltry 15%. The odds for the next rate hike are set to November, exactly the expectation on April 1st after the jobs report for March. The market has reluctantly responded to the Fed’s insistence ...
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