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UK Jobs Claims Drop – GBP Ticks Up
Slightly better than expected data from the UK: the Claimant Count Change is at -2.4K, better than expected for April. Wages are mixed, with a beat on average hourly earnings at 2% y/y, but when excluding bonuses, we have a slide to 2.1%, worse than expected. The unemployment rate remains at 5.1% in the month of March, exactly as predicted. GBP/USD moves up above 1.4440. Resistance awaits at 1.4510 and support is at 1.4350. This is the second top-tier figure this week. We still have retail sales coming out tomorrow morning. The UK was expected to report a rise of 1.7% y/y in wages for the month of March, down from 1.8% beforehand. Excludin... -
Finance 0
5 Foreign Stocks Worth Investing Post-Q1 Earnings
The majority of Q1 earnings are behind us, and overall weakness is confirmed. As of May 13, 2016, 91.8% of the S&P 500 index’s total members have announced their results with a total earnings decline of 7.3% year over year on a 1.4% fall in revenues. Adding to this gloomy earnings picture is the precarious state of the U.S. economy. Over the last four quarters, GDP growth has been gradually declining from +3.9% in Q2 2015, +2% in Q3, +1.4% in Q4, to a meager growth of +0.5% in Q1 2016. Amid the weak market conditions, you must be thinking of avoiding stock investing as much as possible. But it will be a good idea to diversify your portf... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD Breaks Bear Flag Pattern, GU Builds Bullish Zigzag
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD broke the bear flag chart pattern (dotted purple) as price heads lower to the Fibonacci targets. For the moment the wave count has been labeled as a continuation of wave C (blue). The alternative is a wave 3 if price manages to break below the 161.8% Fibonacci target. 1 hour The EUR/USD breaks another support trend line (purple) and is building a decline as part of a wave 5 (orange). The blue line is a strong bottom from the 4 hour chart which could act as a bouncing spot. GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD has respected the resistance level (orange) at the 38.2% Fibonacci level. All of the Fibonacci levels and res... -
Finance 0
Gold Is Keeping Investors Guessing
How much more can the gold rally sustain? On a year to date basis, the precious metal has carved for itself a unique distinction of gaining over 20%. A quick comparison of the US stock indices shows Gold’s performance out beating every other asset. The rally in the commodity has sent gold mining stocks on a bullish run, with just about every analyst upgrading their price targets. More recent to join the bullish crowd includes Credit Suisse, which now assigns a $1350 price target for gold by the first quarter of 2017. BMO Capital expects gold to rise to $1400 by this year end, while Goldman Sachs is skeptical on the precious metal’s outloo... -
Finance 0
Global Uncertainties, Mixed Economic Signals, And Summer Doldrums Conspire To Paralyze Investors
After showing weakness last week and creating some bearish-looking technical formations, stocks took a turn for the better on Monday. Perhaps it was renowned value investor Warren Buffett breaking from his usual aversion to tech companies and investing $1 billion in Apple (AAPL) that gave bulls a much-needed shot of confidence. But then things went south again on Tuesday, and some commentators are surmising that the strength in some of the economic data makes investors think the Fed is more likely to raise rates, i.e., we may be back to a good-news-is-bad-news reactionary environment. Year-to-date, Utilities is the top-performing sector, up +... -
Finance 0
Japan’s Positive GDP Lifts Yen, US Dollar Trims Losses
The news out of Japan is positive. Its annualized quarterly growth came in much higher than expected surprising markets and investors alike. Real gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March period expanded an annualized 1.7 percent against expectations of a 0.2 percent rise. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 0.4 percent against a poll forecast of a 0.1 percent quarterly gain. The yen remained steady against the dollar on the news, but later gave up most of its gains after investors noticed that some of the details of the GDP report were not as positive as should be expected and on concerns that additional stimulus is needed to keep growth... -
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Warren Buffett’s Billion Dollar Apple Investment
Warren Buffett’s newest 13F filings were recently released… The Oracle of Omaha has invested in another tech company. This is only Buffett’s 2nd large technology company investment. The first came in 2011. That’s when Warren Buffett began building a position in IBM (IBM). Today, IBM is Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A) 4th largest holding – 9.6% of the company’s total stock portfolio. Buffett has famously (prior to 2011) avoided tech stocks. When asked in the late 1990’s if he was (at the time) investing in technology stocks, Warren Buffett said the following: “The answer is no, and it’s probably unfortunate. I don’t... -
Finance 0
China’s Debt Bomb: No One Really Knows The Payload
No one knows if it’s a hand grenade or a nuclear warhead… The ramp up in Chinese debt accumulation has been a leading concern of investors for years. The average total debt of emerging market economies is 175% of GDP, and skyrocketing corporate non-financial debt has launched China far beyond that number. The real question is: by how far? The answer is disconcerting, as VisualCapitalist’s Jeff Desjardins warns, because nobody really knows. If the Chinese debt bomb is detonated, the impact on markets is anybody’s guess. Kyle Bass says the losses would be 5x that of the subprime mortgage crisis, while Moody’s says the bom... -
Finance 0
Greenback Recovers As Rate Support Is Enhanced
The US dollar is rising against all the major currencies today. The Australian dollar is retracing a sufficient part of its recent gains to suggest that the current phase of the US dollar’s recovery is not over. Given that the Aussie topped out a week before the other major currencies, it is reasonable that it begins recovering first. Its recent resilience was noted, but that has evaporated today, but a 0.8% drop by early European activity. We had noted the divergence between what appeared to a constructive technical condition and interest rate markets that were largely unchanged. The recent price action is providing more interest ... -
Finance 0
EUR/USD Forex Signal – 5/18/2016
EUR/USD Signal Update Yesterday’s signals gave a profitable short trade following the rejection of the resistance level at 1.1340. As the price at the time of writing is at a key previous swing low and also close to a key support level, it would make sense to take some more profit on any open trade from there. Today’s EUR/USD Signals Risk 0.75% Trades must be taken before 5pm London time today only. Long Trades Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 1.1273 or 1.1234. Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low. Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is...
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