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  • Finance 0

    Precisely Wrong On Dollar, Gold?

    Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has shown it’s not almighty after all; and gold – the barbarous relic as some have called it – may be en vogue again? Where are we going from here and what are the implications for investors?   Like everything else, the value of currencies and gold is generally driven by supply and demand. A key driver (but not the only driver!) is the expectation of differences in real interest rates. Note the words ‘perception’ and ‘real.’ Just like when valuing stocks, expectations of future earnings may be more important than actual earnings; and to draw a parall...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    China’s Housing Bubble Is So Big, Goldman Will “Need A Bigger Chart”

    One of the stated reasons for the Shanghai Composite’s 1.3% drop (and it would have been worse had the PPT not launched its infamous last minute buying blitz) was also the most amusing one: the stock market bubble is in danger of popping even more as a result of a housing bubble that is now raging at a pace not seen since the last Chinese housing bubble, and thus threatens to soak up even more cash from China’s chronic gamblers-cum-speculators. So just how high of a housing number did the NBS report that spooked stocks so much? Well, as Goldman summarizes, housing prices in the primary market increased 1.1% month-over-month after ...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Lowe’s Reports Better Than Expected Q1 Earnings

    Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW – Analyst Report), one of the largest home improvement retailers, came out with first-quarter fiscal 2016 results, wherein adjusted earnings of 87 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a couple of cents and surged 24.3% year over year. Management expects earnings of approximately $4.11 per share for fiscal 2016. Earnings Estimate Revision: The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2016 has been trending up in the last 30 days. In the trailing four quarters (including the quarter under review), the company has outperformed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by an average of 0.6%. Revenues:...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Watch Out For The Head And Shoulders Top

    The market has been chattering quite a lot about the massive downside bets on the S&P 500 being placed by some of the industry’s best known players. That is something I would expect from my long time client and mentor George Soros. But Warren Buffett as well? He is one of the greatest long term, pro America bulls out there. It is the sort of news that gives investors that queasy, seasick feeling in the pit of their stomachs. You know, like when a new Tesla owner shows off his warp speed “ludicrous mode”? That is unless you are running heavy short positions in stocks, as I am. Every technical analyst in the world is pouring over thei...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Stock Whisper Of The Day: SPY, VTI, IVV, VXX

    Hot stocks of the day: SPY, VTI, IVV,VXX Video length: 00:04:02...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Radical Option To Save Venezuela

    Venezuela is in dire straits. Two and a half years of low prices have taken their toll on the socialist government that squandered oil wealth when prices were more than twice what they are today. Now, the country has almost no food, no water, no medical supplies, no currency, no electricity and no toilet paper. Venezuela sits on the world’s largest known oil reserves but can barely pull enough crude oil out of the ground to send to its own refineries. Oil production in Venezuela has already dropped 12% this year. Granted, the electricity problem is not entirely the government’s fault, as Venezuela generates most of its electricit...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Slower US Growth Expected Via April Update For Chicago Fed Index

    Economic growth has been winding lower lately and the deceleration trend is on track to continue in April, based on The Capital Spectator’s analysis of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). Tomorrow’s report for the first month of the second quarter is expected to show that the Fed bank’s business cycle benchmark will tick lower. The Capital Spectator’s average forecast of CFNAI-MA3 by way of several econometric estimates calls for a mild decline to -0.25, which is slightly below the -0.18 reading for March. The -0.25 projection is still well above the tipping point that marks the start ...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    FTSE 100: The Bullish Momentum Fizzled Out Quickly

    Yesterday, the FTSE 100 breached the upper end of the 6054-6195 range, which kept price confined since May 6. However, as the session progressed, the price fell back into the range and closed the day near the middle of it. The slide back to the range took away some of the bullish bias. The bullish bias of FTSE 100 traders does seem somewhat out of place if we take into consideration the fact that the German DAX 30 and S&P 500 never breached their respective ranges and instead closed near to their lower ends. According to the business press the FTSE 100, DAX 30 and S&P 500 declined as expectations of a Fed rate hike in 2016 increas...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Meritage Homes Offers Strong Guidance “Too Late”

    At the 9th Annual J.P. Morgan Homebuilding & Building Products Conference on May 17, 2016, Meritage Homes (MTH) released good news on guidance for the second quarter and fiscal year 2016. MTH expects notable year-over-year gains for FY2016 across all its top metrics except home closing gross margins: Home orders: +4-6% Home closings: +10-17% Home closing revenue: +16-24% Home closing gross margin: -50-100 bps Diluted EPS: +15-25% The market initially reacted well with the stock gaining as much as 5.8% in a move that finally started to reverse some MTH’s post-earnings loss. The high of the day happened to occur right at converged resist...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Euro Trying To Follow GBP Restoral

    During European trades, the euro/dollar fell to 1.1255 due to weak Eurozone inflation data. The definitive April CPI fell 0.2% YoY and was 0.0% MoM (previous: 1.5%). The ECB will now need to continue its fight against deflation, thereby negatively affecting the euro. The GBP rose from a 1.4402 minimum to 1.4555 (+153 points). It definitely didn’t strengthen against the dollar and other key currencies because of the UK labour market data. Such sharp unexpected fluctuations happen when preliminary survey results regarding a Brexit are published, or when an act of terrorism takes place. There was no act of terrorism and no news out. Probably, ...
    On May 18, 2016 / By