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    Economic Data Surprise Index Shows Continued Weakness

    Today we get another glimpse into the behind-the-scenes machinations of the “data dependent” Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) with the release of the minutes from the April 26-27 meeting. While the Fed has a dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, lately there has been considerable discussion about the how much the Fed should let global considerations factor into Fed policy.Clearly, the pace of economic growth in China or the stability of euro zone has a significant downstream effect on economic activity in the United States.Additionally, with 48% of revenues from the S&P 500 companies coming from international m...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    EC The New Asset Allocation Standard?

    Invesco ran a commercial on CNBC for liquid alternative funds with the tag line “goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20” with the implication being 50% to equities, 30% to fixed income and 20% to alternative strategies. Where alternatives used to be more about reducing volatility, the conversation is shifting to include bond market substitutes due to what seems like an increased likelihood of lower for longer for interest rates. It is a positive that the conversation is expanding and presumably more market participants are taking the time to learn about alternatives. I am pretty skeptical that a 20% allocation is the answer. Back in the middle o...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Crude Dumps, Pumps, & Slumps As Unexpected Inventory Build Offsets Production Cut

    Following API’s smaller than expected draw overnight, DOE data showed an unexpedted 1.31m barrel build (3.5m draw expectations). This was offset by considerably bigger than expected draws in Gasoline and Distillates and Cushing oinventories rose less than expected. Crude production also fell once again, to its lowest since Sept 2014. The initial kneejerk was a mini-flash-crash in crude prices.. but that was rapidly bid back to unch… API: Crude -1.1m (-3.5mm exp, last week -3.4mm) Cushing +508k (+1.1m exp) Gasoline -1.9mm (-1m exp) Distillates -2m (-1m exp) DOE Crude +1.31m (-3.5mm exp, last week -3.4mm) Cushing +460k (+1.1m exp...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Could Grupo Supervielle IPO Open Doors For More South American Deals?

    Grupo Supervielle S.A. (Pending: SUPV) hopes to raise about $190 million through its upcoming IPO. Based in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Grupo Supervielle S.A. is a financial group that was started in Argentina in 1887 by the Supervielle family. It owns Argentinian domestic bank Banco Supervielle S.A, which has branches located throughout the greater metropolitan area of Buenos Aires as well as in Mendoza and San Luis. We previewed the IPO last week on our IPO Insights platform. Grupo Supervielle S.A. plans to make a global offering of 104,166,667 shares of class B common stock through its IPO on May 20, 2016. It additionally will grant the in...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Using Sentiment With Options

    Successfully trading the capital markets goes well beyond having a good idea.There will be many times where you are right about the direction of a market but completely wrong about your timing. One of the problems that most traders experience is that the markets can be irrational for a period that is longer than most people are solvent. So it is important that you understand that you not only need to be right about the direction, but you also need to be right about your timing. Now determining the exact timing is very difficult so you have to give yourself some leeway to make trades that are not going to break your bank if your timing is not ...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    DAX 30 Lingers Above May 6 Low Of 9739

    The DAX 30 was little changed and price lingered above the May 6 low of 9739 at the time of writing. On price trading above the May 6 low of 9739, the trend in place since February will remain bullish. The trend is bullish above the May 6 low of 9739 as it is the most recent swing low of a series of swing lows formed since price reached the February 11 low of 8702. The complete sequence of higher lows is 8702, 9122, 9433, and 9739. These swing lows may act as a support on the trend turning bearish. The nearest support level below the May 6 low of 9739 is therefore the April 7 low of 9433. For now though, the trend is bullish above the May 6...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E The Daily Shot And Data – May 18, 2016

    Greetings, We begin with the United States where some key Fed officials are talking about 2-3 interest rate hikes this year. Source: Reuters Short-term treasuries, Fed Funds futures declined in response to these comments. Fresh US economic data (discussed below) added to the rate hike fears. Source: @barchart Source: @barchart The futures-implied probability of rate hikes in 2016 yesterday vs. today is shown below. The probability of a June hike rose from 4% to 15% between Monday and Tuesday. Source: @SoberLook This is a good segue into the Daily Shot Fed policy survey results (thanks everyone for participating – we had close to 1k res...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Will American Eagle Suffer The Same Fate As Aeropostale?

    Photo Credit: Mike Mozart American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) Consumer Discretionary – Specialty Retail | Reports May 18, After Market Closes Key Takeaways The Estimize consensus is calling for earnings of 18 cents per share on $730.07, right in line with Wall Street on both the top and bottom line American Eagle’s turnaround has been led by the wildly successful Aerie brand Aeropostale’s recent move to file for bankruptcy might be a sign of things to come in the teen space What are you expecting for AEO? Get your estimate in here! Teen retailers may not be a thing of the past after all. During the fourth quarter both Abercrombie an...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Japan Posts Growth In Q1

    Japan remains the world’s third largest economy behind that of the USA and China, but it continues to have to deal with anaemic economic growth, the negative consequences of a “safe haven” currency and broadly stagnant or declining prices. At the outset of 2016, the Dollar bought 120.6 Yen; currently it is buying 109.5 Yen, meaning that Japanese goods priced in Yen are more expensive in importing markets. Data just released shows that the Japanese economy expanded by 0.4% in Q1 of 2016 and reversing a contraction of equal magnitude that was experienced in Q4 2015. Analysts had been predicting much more modest growth (well, everything is...
    On May 18, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E US CPI Improved In April

    The European currency went further down the other days, dragging along the EUR/USD major to fresh lows in the 1.1300 vicinities. The spot accelerated downwards after the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) came out above expectations for the month of April, posting a 0.4% advance on a monthly basis versus a 0.3% forecasted figure. The core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) matched the expected 0.2% month-on-month while the headline CPI had a 1.1% advance (previously 0.9%). For which regards Building Permits and Housing Starts, the results came in mixed at 1.116 million, respectively 1.1172 million for the month of April. Looking over the fresh...
    On May 18, 2016 / By