Latest Posts
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Copper Price May Fall Deeper And Aluminum Is Close To The Bottom
Since 2008, we have been reporting that the evolution of various components of CPI and PPI in the United States is not a random process but rather a predetermined one with long-term sustainable trends [1, 2]. Using these trends, one can predict consumer and producer price indices for various goods, services, and commodities. For example, in [3, 4], we presented the evolution for many goods and services with varying weights in the CPI. There are more goods, services, and commodities of interest for producers, consumers, and investors, however. Here we revisit and report the success of our predictions for the index for copper ores (the... -
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Three Things I Think I Am Thinking About – Hump Day Edition
Sorry for the radio silence over the last week or so. Life and travel got in the way. I’m in NYC this week if any readers happen to see this and enjoy spending time with nerds…. Anyhow, here are some things I think I am thinking about: 1 – The Value of Critical Self Assessment. One of the great things about writing in a public forum is that you’ll inevitably say some stupid things (I’ve said more than my fair share of stupid things over the years!). This creates a certain need for accountability because public figures earn their right to be public by justifying why their opinions are worthy of being public at all. I take this ve... -
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Apple Inc.: Starting Mobility Efforts In China Instead Of U.S. Makes Sense
Apple’s (AAPL) last earnings report was a huge disappointment all around, including the more than 25% decline in sales in China, but analysts don’t seem very concerned about it. They’ve got plenty of non-alarming reasons why sales in the region declined and are encouraged by the company’s recent investment into Chinese ride-hailing service Didi Chuxing. Rumors about Apple building a car abound, especially in the wake of that investment, which is about more than just mobility. The iPhone maker has a lot at stake in China, and anything it can do to woo Chinese consumers and officials will only serve to improve its image in what is seen... -
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Inflation: An X-Ray View Of The Components
Written by Jill Mislinski Here is a table showing the annualized change in Headline and Core CPI, not seasonally adjusted, for each of the past six months. Also included are the eight components of Headline CPI and a separate entry for Energy, which is a collection of sub-indexes in Housing and Transportation. We can make some inferences about how inflation is impacting our personal expenses depending on our relative exposure to the individual components. Some of us have higher transportation costs, others medical costs, etc. A conspicuous feature in the year-over-year table is the volatility in energy, significantly a result of gasoline pri... -
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Binary Options Assets In Focus For May 19, 2016
We don’t have much to move the markets during the day, with perhaps Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index being the 2 biggest ones. This would have an effect on America only under normal circumstances, and as a result we feel that it will be a fairly choppy trading day. Silver Silver initially fell during the day on Wednesday but turned back around to show that there is still plenty of support at the $16.80 level. Because of this, call buyers will more than likely be attracted to this market every time it dips, as it seems like the floor is still very much intact. USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair rose during the day on Wednesda... -
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The Moon Is Not Random Error
On March 29, 1900, Louis Bachelier successfully defended his doctoral thesis at the University of Paris. It was breathtakingly innovative and complex, so much so that it would take decades for his ideas to be fully understood let alone adopted. This was the case even though his thesis advisor was none other than famed physicist Henri Poincairé and that he solved the mathematics of Brownian motion five years before Einstein. Well, he didn’t quite “solve” the problem, he was the first to model the process stochastically. It was his research subject rather than the object for deducing it that was of great interest. Bachelier was intent up... -
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Third-Party Growth Has Made Amazon.com, Inc. Stock A Less Risky Investment
Amazon.com (NSDQ:AMZN) stock has been on a tear, gaining close to 18% over the past two weeks since the company delivered impressive Q1 2016 results where the company beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line. Amazon reported revenue of $29.13B, good for a robust 28.2% Y/Y growth while EPS of $1.07 was a massive improvement compared to EPS of -$0.12 the company posted in the previous year’s comparable quarter. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter that Amazon has been in the black after years of losses and occasional thin profits. Flickr Amazon has its cloud services AWS, to thank for its recent run of profits. AWS post... -
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The CAC 40 Consolidates For 10th Session
The CAC 40 continues to range, with the Index down -.35% on the day. The CAC 40 along with other European indices are relatively unchanged as markets await the release of the minutes from the U.S. Feds April FOMC meeting. With interest rates back in focus, traders are looking into last month’s meeting minutes to give insight into the possibility that rates may be hiked in the U.S when the Fed reconvenes for their next FOMC meeting on June 15. Traders watching price action should note that the CAC 40 is again testing a key value of support below 4,300. This Index has now been locked inside of a range for the last 10 trading days, and has s... -
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Saudi Arabia Delays Payment To Contractors, Considers IOUs: Liquidity Crunch At Best
Liquidity Crunch or Worse Saudi Arabia burnt through its reserves faster than anyone thought. In signs of a huge liquidity crunch, at best, the country has delayed paying contractors and now considers paying them in IOUs and tradable bonds. In retrospect, the Saudi threat to dump US assets looks more ridiculous than ever. Please consider Saudi Arabia Considers Paying Contractors With IOUs. Saudi Arabia has told banks in the country that it is considering giving contractors IOUs to settle some outstanding bills, according to people with knowledge of the discussions. A projected budget deficit this year is prompting the government to weigh alt...
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