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Finance 0
3 Reasons To Fade USD Gains Post-FOMC Minutes
The dollar had a very nice ride on the hawkish minutes which included the word “June” 6 times. However, we have already posted some skeptic voices, and here’s yet another one: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The USD has continued to trade with a firmer tone after Wednesday’s FOMC minutes signalled a significantly more hawkish FOMC stance than markets had been expecting. US front-end yields have remained elevated in response holding above 89bp, and the rates market has moved to increase pricing for a rate hike in June from about 12% to about 30%. While the FOMC minutes were not the catalyst for USD reversal that we thought t... -
Finance 0
DAX 30 Tests Lower End Of The 9,739-10,111 Range
The DAX 30 (CFD: GER30) was under pressure at the time of writing following a 4.79% slide to the Health Care Sector, followed by Materials and Industrials, both of which were down by 2.10% and 1.56% on the day correspondingly. A near term support level is the May 6 low of 9739, which is the most recent swing low to the bullish trend in place since February 11, when the DAX reached a low of 8697. The prior low to the May 6 low of 9739 wasthe April 7 low of 9433, which is also the next major support level. A short-term support level between these major figures of 9433 and 9739 is the April 12 low of 9619, followed by the April 11 low o... -
Finance 0
May 2016 Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey Remains In Contraction – Little Changed
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey remains in contraction. Key elements marginally declined. The only other manufacturing survey released so far for this month is in contraction. This is a very noisy index which readers should be reminded is sentiment based. The Philly Fed historically is one of the more negative of all the Fed manufacturing surveys but has been more positive then the others recently. The index declined from -1.6 to -1.8. Positive numbers indicate market expansion, negative numbers indicate contraction. The market expected (from Bloomberg) 0.0 to 6.5 (consensus +3.0). Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outloo... -
Finance 0
Chicago Fed: 3-Month US Macro Trend Remains Sluggish In April
Economic growth in the US eased in April to a four-month low, according to this morning’s update of the three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI-MA3). The reading for last month dipped to -0.22, the lowest since last December’s -0.28 reading. A negative value indicates below-trend growth, based on the historical record, but only figures below -0.70 mark the start of a recession, according to the Chicago Fed. By that standard, the US macro trend was sluggish, but the weak output—the weakest, in fact, for the year so far—is still well above the tipping point that aligns with economic contraction. Today’s... -
Finance 0
Initial Jobless Claims Worse Than Expected, Near 3-Month Highs
Following the last two weeks’ dramatic surge in initial jobless claims it was expected that a pull back would occur and it did but the last week’s 278k print is still worse than expected – the third weekly miss in a row (the first time since January). The downtrend remains ‘broken’ as the 4-week-average prints at 3-month highs, catching up to weakness in layoffs, earnings, macro data, ISM/PMI surveys, and retail stocks. 3rd weekly miss in a row… With the 4-week average now at 3-month highs… Are claims catching up to layoffs? Or did the retail recovery just implode? June looms though. Charts: Bloomb... -
Finance 0
E The Daily Shot And Data – May 19, 2016
Greetings, We start with the United States where the Federal Reserve struck a decisively hawkish tone. On Tuesday, we heard the Fed’s Dennis Lockhart and John Williams discuss the possibility of 2-3 rate hikes in 2016. On Wednesday, the FOMC minutes showed that the central bank has left a June rate hike possibility on the table. Here is the key paragraph. Source: FOMC minutes The markets started adjusting quickly to this new reality. The June rate hike odds implied by the futures markets rose above 1:3. Source: CME Source: @business Treasuries sold off sharply – this time across the curve. The 2-year yield rose above 0.9%. Th... -
Finance 0
Why Price Spikes Are Actually Your Friend
I could go on in detail about why and what price spikes provide us short term trades with, and I will in a future article and video. Keeping things short and simple we will let the charts to the speaking for now because they paint a very clear picture of what they do and how quickly we should expect our profit targets to be reached. The chart below shows the recent price spikes in the SPY. These spikes come and go, meaning some months we may only see a couple, and other months we see 10-20 of these incredible momentum trading opportunities. As you can see below this is a 30 minute chart going back 4 trading sessions and we saw 4 price spikes ... -
Finance 0
E Welcome To The Deflationary Century
Ignore the lessons of history, and the cost to your portfolio will be great. Especially if you are a bond trader. In Britain they celebrated something unusual last year. The government reported the first year on year decline in consumer prices in 54 years (see chart below). In fact, prices for the things they buy day to day were 0.1% lower than they were 12 months before. Meet deflation, up front and ugly. If you looked at a chart for data from the United States, they would not be much different, where consumer prices are showing a feeble 0.4% YOY price gain. This is miles away from the Federal Reserve’s own 2% annual inflation target. We a... -
Finance 0
Chicago Fed: Economic Growth Picked Up In April
“Index shows Economic Growth Picked Up in April.” This is the headline for today’s release of the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, and here are the opening paragraphs from the report: Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.10 in April from –0.55 in March. All four of the broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, but three of the four categories made nonpositive contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.18 in March. Ap...
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