Investments in stocks made from diligent value analysis is usually considered one of the best practices. In value investing, investors pick stocks that are cheap but fundamentally sound. So the chance of these stocks allowing investors to book profit is high when the market moves higher. Thus, for long-term investors, it is always best to look for the intrinsic value of stocks. The use of different valuation metrics to determine a stock’s inherent strength is not new in the financial world. But a random selection of a ratio cannot serve your purpose if you want a realistic assessment of a company’s financial position. For this, we would s...
Week 19 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Rolling averages continue moving deeper into contraction. The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data – and it continues to decline. We do not believe the data is affected this week by the labor issues in the ports one year ago. This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of...
AUD/USD. With the pair halting its weakness to close on a rejection candle on Thursday, a move higher could be developing. On the downside, support resides at the 0.7200 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7150 level. Below that level will set the stage for a run at the 0.7100 level with a cut through here targeting further downside pressure towards the 0.7050 level. On the upside, resistance lies at the 0.7300 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7350 level and then the 0.7400 level where a violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.7450 level. On the whole, AUD/USD remains biased to the downside but with cauti...
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS Jun E-mini S&Ps (ESM16 +0.20%) are up +0.22% and European stocks are up +0.98% as a recovery in commodity prices boosts energy and raw-material producing stocks. Jun WTI crude oil (CLM16 -0.23%) is up +0.17%, just below Tuesday’s 7-1/4 month high, and Jul copper (HGN16 +0.78%) is up +0.75% after weekly Shanghai copper inventories fell -28,876 MT to 257,334 MT, a 3-1/2 month low. G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Sendai, Japan warned that a vote by the UK to leave the EU could roil international markets. USD/JPY climbed to a 3-week high on short-covering as G-7 leaders may al...
The Dow (DIA) does not need to break last year’s low. That was accomplished in the Nasdaq (QQQ) and S&P 500 (SPY). Nothing has changed there. The entire interest rate issue has far too many people brainwashed. No doubt, they would initially sell. However, the market will rise with higher interest rates as it has always done historically. Therefore, as shorts build, we can easily create a bear trap and that is the fuel to rally again. This is the churning we are in until it appears at least after September. This time, we have a far more serious problem with where to put money – big money. Stocks are the modern-day version of what what ...
One of the adverse effects of extraordinary low interest rates and quantitative easing policies is that it has enabled a lot of zombie companies to stay in business. While this has kept open many companies that should have gone under it has also meant a lot of excess capacity. Keeping the zombies alive hits even the healthy companies. This is certainly not healthy for the long run health of an economy. The good news is that the zombie companies are finally getting culled as the number of corporate defaults has been increasing rapid during 2016. A bad company tends to remain a bad company far more often than not, as interest rates rise then ev...
A second interest rate hike may be near, advised New York Fed President Bill Dudley on Thursday. “If I’m convinced that my own forecast is on track, then I think a tightening in the summer, the June-July time frame, is a reasonable expectation.” The release of Fed minutes from the last policy meeting fall in line with that thinking. So, too, does the April update on real (inflation-adjusted) base money supply (M0), which contracted in year-over-year terms in April, marking the third decline in the past four months. The St. Louis Adjusted Monetary Base (deflated by the consumer price index) fell 5.4% last month vs. the year earlier...
The US dollar consolidated its gains after Dudley moved slightly towards the hawks. All in all, this has been a positive week for the greenback and the last word belongs to the release of existing home sales. For CAD traders, we have a double-feature of retail sales and inflation figures and that could result in significant moves for the loonie, a currency that has been weak of late. Wrap up of the morning show for May 20th 2016: Video length: 00:03:58 ...
Back in March, I recommended a broad play on platinum that’s returned 56% more than the S&P 500 over the same period. Those gains didn’t happen by accident. You see, gold and platinum have a special relationship, the so-called “gold-platinum ratio.” In fact, since platinum is about 30 times more rare than gold, it’s usually the more expensive of the two metals. But right now, the ratio is reversed, and gold is the more expensive metal. That situation never lasts, and we’re actually seeing the gold-platinum ratio right itself now. It’s been partially responsible for some very nice gains in both m...
It will be fitting, not to mention symmetric, if stocks which yesterday closed at 7 weeks lows and red for the year, end the week the same way they started it: with a rally on no news, just more hopes that oil (which as recently as two years ago none other than Chair Yellen said said would be be “unambiguously good” if lower) will continue rising. While US markets ended yesterday’s trading on a sour note, that weakness has failed to spread to the rest of the world, and global shares rebounded from a six-week low as crude and commodity prices recovered, while the yen weakened on reduced demand for haven assets. And just like...