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  • Finance 0

    The VIX Closed At 16.33. This Could Be An Escalating Problem Developing.

    The VIX closed at 16.33. Remain on the Cautious side as this could be end up being a DANGER condition. – – – (Remember that the market moves opposite to the VIX.)  The fan resistance lines continue to move further out. This could be an escalating problem developing, so be very careful. (The VIX has been consolidating for a breakout soon.)   The VIX resistance is 17.65 on a closing basis today.  ...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Zulauf: Fed Rate Hike Will Cause Major Market Decline

    Days after the U.S. Federal Reserve has made its intentions clear to raise interest rates before a major U.S. presidential election, Felix Zulauf, out with research Friday, says the commodity rally is over and a correction has begun. Zulauf: Fed rate hike will create counter trends that will have varying degrees of force behind the momentum The Fed has clearly made known its intention to normalize interest rates, first in the recently released Fed minutes and later with Fed member comments calling for a rate hike soon. The notion that the Federal Open Market Committee is sending a message that U.S. interest rates will run counter trend to...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Market Top Or False Alarm

    I’m not into calling market tops and I’m not trying to do that with this post. What I am trying to do is to bring some concerning developments to light.  We all know just how hard it has been for SPX to trade within the 2040-2138 range. For almost two years it has destroyed price action. But what I have seen, and this is somewhat similar to yesterdays post about the 10/50-week moving average crossover, is that there are a lot of similarities unfolding that are similar to the tops we saw in 2000-1 and 2008.  I’ve used the 400-day moving average in the chart below, which I actually never used, but happened to type it in err...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    S&P 500 To Celebrate One Year Of New High: Top ETFs & Stocks

    Though the U.S. bourses staged a strong comeback from January’s market meltdown, the rally fizzled out recently and the stocks are again far from their all-time highs reached a year ago. Notably, the S&P 500 is down 4.4% from its record high set on May 21, 2015. This is because a number of headwinds have plagued the stock market in the past one-year period, leading to bouts of volatility and heightened uncertainty. It all started with the relentless slide in crude oil, the political turmoil in Greece, a strong dollar, weak corporate earnings, lofty valuation, Fed uncertainty, and then extended to geopolitical tensions and China-led glob...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Chart Repair

    The rally out of the February lows has repaired a lot of charts. If you look at the bullish percent index (BPSPX) the last rally brought the percent of bullish point and figure charts in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to nearly 80%. That level is higher than BPSPX achieved during all of 2015. This is an encouraging sign for the market as a whole because it gives BPSPX plenty of room to consolidate before getting below the 60% level. Long time readers know that I use readings below the 60% level to indicate increased risk (big market declines occur when breadth is already weak). So as long as BPSPX stays above 60% this indicator will remain bulli...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    The Big Banks Are The Market

    Charts review and market update: Video Length: 00:09:19...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    GDPNow 2.5%, NY Fed Nowcast 1.7%; Huge Discrepancies: Why?

    The New York Fed released its GDP “Nowcast” today. The New York Fed model expects 1.7% seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR), a jump of 0.5 percentage points from last week. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model says 2.5%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Latest forecast: 2.5 percent — May 17, 2016 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 2.5 percent on May 17, down from 2.8 percent on May 13. The second-quarter forecast for real residential investment growth declined from 5.3 to 2.5 percent after this morning’s housing starts release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the forecast for real...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Why Low Interest Rates Do Not Imply Perpetual Increases In Stock Prices

    Some investors have come to believe that ultra-low interest rates alone have made traditional valuations obsolete. The irony of the error in judgment? Experts and analysts made similar claims prior to the Nasdaq collapse in 2000. The benchmark still trades below its nominal highs (and far below its inflation-adjusted highs) from 16 years ago. Without question, exceptionally low borrowing costs helped drive current stock valuations to extraordinary heights. In fact, favorable borrowing terms played a beneficial role in each of the stock bull markets over the last 40-plus years, ever since the post-Volcker Federal Reserve began relying on the ...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oil Price Slips After Rig Count Decline Stalls

    For 20 of the last 21 weeks, US oil rig count has declined as it tracked the lagged oil price lower. That changed today as oil rigs were unchanged week-over-week perfectly syncing with the lagged lows in oil. Total rigs dropped 2 (thanks to gas rigs) to a new record low but even that pace has slowed dramatically. Oil prices are fading modestly on the news… It seems we nailed it as the inflection point in the lagged oil price marked the inflection point (for now) in oil rig count… With Lousiana rising 7 rigs as Texas decline continues… And oil prices are giving up earlier gains…...
    On May 20, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Will The New Pascal GPUs Extend Nvidia Corporation’s Leadership?

    Just one month after the launch of its first Pascal-based graphics cards Tesla P100 which is targeted at HPC server accelerators, NVIDIA (NSDQ:NVDA) has now revealed high-end Pascal desktop GPUs, GeForce GTX 1080 and 1070, that will retail at $599 and $379 respectively. Those price points make the new cards slightly more expensive than the ”Founders Edition” that Nvidia plans to launch a little down the line. Nvidia says that the two GPUs will outperform the company’s Titan X cards which were built on the older Maxwell architecture and retailed at $999. The company says the 1080 will be available on May 27 while the 1070 ...
    On May 20, 2016 / By