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Deterioration-Twitter Sentiment For SPX Declines
Over the past week, sentiment calculated from the Twitter stream for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) suffered some deterioration. Daily prints were mostly negative and 7 day momentum is trying to break the lower bounds of its triangle. A break lower will likely bring with it heavy selling. Breadth continued its decline as well. Bulls want to see breadth turn up if the market rallies. On the bright side, tweets for substantially lower prices dried up. The calls for a trip back to the February lows are almost non existent. Most of the tweets this week had price targets between 2020 and 2040. Both of those areas are now critical support. If those le... -
Finance 0
Negative Interest Rates Means Passive Capital Must Incur Huge Losses In A Crash Scenario
We delve into the implications of negative interest rates, and what they are really saying about the soundness of the financial system. In short we have too many rich people doing nothing productive with their wealth. I am the opposite of a redistributionist, and the unintended consequences would be off the charts, but it would be interesting to see what Elon Musk could do with all this unproductive capital earning negative real rates around the globe being that he is always trying to push the envelope of the possible from a creativity standpoint. Give me a “Bad-Ass” who fails in pushing the envelope over a “Passive Capit... -
Finance 0
E The Fed Is Entering A New Bull Market In Confusion
The Federal Reserve these days seems to want to focus on employment as a reason to justify rate normalization, hinting just this week about an “active” June meeting coming up.Of course, there are many reasons put forth to dismiss the reported numbers as being phony as a three dollar bill, with Shadowstats reporting a real unemployment rate at around 23%.But let’s take the government reporting at its word for a moment and view this employment recovery in the context of past employment recoveries from recessions: (click on images to enlarge). This chart shows that there seems to be some growing problem with each subsequent emp... -
Finance 0
Insider Trading Report Edition 309: Notable Buys And Sales
Welcome to edition 309 of Insider Weekends. Insider buying decreased last week with insiders buying $75.93 million of stock compared to $79 million in the week prior. Selling increased with insiders selling $2.17 billion of stock last week compared to $1.84 billion in the week prior. Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week went up to 28.53. In other words, insiders sold almost 29 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares unfavorably with the prior week, when the ra... -
Finance 0
Weekly Forex Forecast – 5/22/2016
USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair rose during the course of the week, but struggled at the 110 level. Because of this, I think that we will still have quite a bit of bearish pressure in this market, especially considering that the Friday candle itself was a shooting star. If we can break down below though bottom of the candle, the market will more than likely drop down to the 109 level, if not the 108 level. On the other hand, if we can break above the top of the range for the week, the market could very well go looking for the 112 handle. EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair fell during the course the week, but remained supported near the 1.12 level. I think tha... -
Finance 0
Bull Of The Day: Cincinnati Financial
It is time for investors to face the facts. An interest rate hike is coming sooner rather than later, with some speculating that a hike could come as early as next month. While the market is still pricing a low chance of this happening, investors are starting to think that one could happen this summer, with recent readings of the CME FedWatch suggesting we are more likely than not to see a hike in July. However, it has been a long time since we were in a rising rate environment, so some investors might not remember what the best sectors are in this scenario. One sector that tends to benefit is the financial space, with the insurance indust... -
Finance 0
Gold Declines On Continued Correction
Gold: With gold extending it corrective weakness the past week, further decline is envisaged. However, with its price action on Thursday and Friday, we may see it return into its consolidation range. On the downside, support comes in at the 1,240.00 level where a break will turn attention to the 1,230.00 level. Further down, a cut through here will open the door for a move lower towards the 1,220.00 level. Below here if seen could trigger further downside pressure targeting the 1,210.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Conversely, resistance resides at the 1,260.00 level where a break will aim ... -
Finance 0
10 Best Stocks For Value Investors This Week – 5/21/16
We evaluated 23 different companies this week to determine whether they are suitable for Defensive Investors, those unwilling to do substantial research, or Enterprising Investors, those who are willing to do such research. We also put each company through the ModernGraham valuation model based on Benjamin Graham’s value investing formulas in order to determine an intrinsic value for each. Out of those 23 companies, only 10 were found to be undervalued or fairly valued and suitable for either Defensive or Enterprising Investors. The Elite The following companies were found to be suitable for either the Defensive Investor or Enterpri... -
Finance 0
Aussie Dollar To Track Risk Trends On Fed Outlook, Brexit Bets
Fundamental Forecast for the Australian Dollar: Neutral Thin economic calendar leaves Aussie at the mercy of risk trends US activity data, Powell comments to inform Fed rate hike views “Brexit” polling increasingly focus as referendum looms ahead A lull in high-profile event risk leaves the Australian Dollar without readily-available fundamental catalysts in the week ahead. This puts prices at the mercy of risk sentiment trends as financial markets continue to focus on establishing big-picture narratives leading up to potentially explosive volatility next month. Prospects for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the June or July p... -
Finance 0
US Equity And Economic Review: Just Not Feeling The The Warm Fuzzies From The Macro Data
On Friday, the Conference Board released the latest leading and coincident indicators. The LEIs increased .6% while the CEIs rose .3%. The report’s internals were strong: 9/10 LEIs were higher while all 4 CEIs advanced – even industrial production, which declined in 4 of the last 6 months. And the LEIs 6-month rate of change was up .2% to .6%. Overall, this was the best LEI report of the year. This week’s housing news was positive: building permits increased 3.6% M/M while housing starts rose 6.6% M/M. But both figures declined Y/Y (5.3% and 1.7%, respectively). More importantly, both data series are moving sideways: Housing...
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