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Finance 0
Don’t Be Surprised If You See More Of The Same From The Euro
Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral – EUR/USD losing ground in May falls in line with twenty year seasonality trends. – The retail crowd remains net-short EUR/USD but shifting rapidly – see live SSI updates. – Check in on the EUR/USD quarterly forecast, “EUR/USD Stuck in No Man’s Land’s Headed into Q2’16 – Don’t Discount ‘Brexit’” To receive reports from this analyst, sign up for Christopher’s distribution list. The Euro fell back against the British Pound (EUR/GBP -1.62%) and the US Dollar (EUR/USD -0.91%) last week while gaining broadly elsewhere. Current market trends seem lik... -
Finance 0
British Lord Proposes “Fix” To Pension Crisis: Work Until 70 To Get More Money
In a world of increasingly more negative interest rates, one group is impacted more than most: pensioners who had relied on fixed income to fund their retirement years who are slowly discovering that as pension funds are unable to meet their annual 6-7% return target, that the pensions promised to them will never materialize, or worse cut by 50%, 60% or more. One such example is that of the Central States Pension Fund whose fate we have been following over the past month, and which as we reported yesterday could see the pension benefits for about 407,000 people be reduced to “virtually nothing.” In a last-ditch effort, the Central ... -
Finance 0
HP Inc Q1 Earnings: Weak PC Market To Hurt Stock?
HP Inc. (HPQ – Analyst Report) is slated to report second-quarter fiscal 2016 results – the second quarterly numbers post its split from Hewlett-Packard Company – on May 25. Notably, after about a year of consideration, Hewlett-Packard Company successfully split itself into two standalone companies – HP Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Enterprise (HPE – Snapshot Report) – effective Nov 1, 2015. Prior to the split, Hewlett-Packard Company was a leading global provider of computing products, technologies, software and services to individual consumers, SMBs and large enterprises, including those in the public and educational sec... -
Finance 0
Weekly Market Outlook – Neutral With Downside Risk
The bulls and bears ended up in a stalemate last week. Both sides of the table looked as if they were going to take control at different points, but when all was said and done, neither side had the conviction need to rock the market out of its rut. The S&P 500’s (SPX) (SPY) close of 2052.32 was only 0.27% better than the week-earlier close, and still right in the middle of some major support and resistance. The BigTrends TrendScore (for stocks) is a slightly anemic 56.6 out of a possible 100.0 – a neutral rating currently. That’s 7.2 points better than the score from a week earlier, but still below the 60 threshold we... -
Finance 0
Noonan: Charts Show Gold & Silver At Turning Point
…We sometimes get criticism for not being more bullish on the metals,always wanting to see confirmation. Gold and silver appear to be at a turning point. The probability of last November/December lows being a bottom keeps increasing. While decreasing in its probability, one more downside washout of those lows still exists, however small the potential may seem. Guest post by Michael Noonan (edgetraderplus.com) consisting of 502 words and 6 charts excerpted from the 1736 word edgetraderplus.com. There has been clear change in developing market activity that is favorable for gold and silver, both having the best and strongest recent ... -
Finance 0
T2108 Update – Chopfest
To start the last week of trading, I wrote “Another Buyer’s Surprise Signals Chop Ahead.” The week ended with buying as well, but it just barely kept change for the week in positive territory. The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 0.6% to finish 5 1/2 points higher than the previous Friday’s close. The chart below shows that the index has clearly broken down below support at its 50-day moving average (DMA). Yet, the buying to end the week printed important follow-through to a potential bottoming pattern on Thursday in the form of a “hammer.” I cannot get overly excited about the bottoming because the S&P 500 has been trapped in a chopf... -
Finance 0
Friday Accumulation
Indices finished the week strongly, pushing a follow through to Thursday’s gain. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day. Indices still have to contend with moving averages as resistance, but get above these and there is room to run to all-time highs from last year. The S&P is back at converged 20-day and 50-day MAs which is also the neckline of the head-and-shoulder pattern. If bears are to retain control then the neckline has to hold as resistance, which means there is little room for additional gains. Relative performance has switched to under performance against Small Caps. The Nasdaq remains inside the May trading ran... -
Finance 0
This Economic Recovery Could Be The Longest In Recent Memory, Perhaps Ever
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) came in at 123.9. April’s reading, while quite strong, is still below the prior expansion’s peak of 126.0 in March 2006. What does this imply for the incursion of the next recession? Here is a look. Economic Recovery – The LEI and Recession Incursion A look at the LEI (pink line) and recessions (gray bars) follows. Typically it takes 4 years for the LEI to reach its prior expansion’s peak. At 123.9, the LEI is still below the prior expansion’s peak of 126.0. This suggests at least a few more months before matching the 2006 peak. After the LEI reaches the prior expansion’s ... -
Finance 0
Business Debt Delinquencies Are Now Higher Than When Lehman Brothers Collapsed In 2008
You are about to see more very clear evidence that a new economic crisis has already begun. During economic recoveries, business debt delinquencies generally fall, and during times of economic recession business debt delinquencies generally rise. In fact, you will see below that business debt delinquencies shot up dramatically just prior to the last two recessions, and the exact same thing is happening again right now. In 2008, business debt delinquencies increased at a very frightening pace just before Lehman Brothers collapsed, and this was a very clear sign that big trouble was ahead. Unfortunately for us, in 2016 business debt delinquenc... -
Finance 0
Fed Provides Dollar Lift, FOMC Speak And SPX May Play Key Roles
Fundamental Forecast for Dollar: Neutral The Dollar climbs a third week as fundamentals tangibly take over for speculative covering A Fed Funds futures forecast of a 28% probability See our 2Q forecasts for the US Dollar and market benchmarks on the DailyFX Trading Guides page The Dollar is finding some serious reprieve from a painful three months of selling pressure. Over the past three weeks, the currency has advanced between 0.8 and 5.0 percent (versus the British Pound and Australian Dollar respectively). Rather than finding its motivation in external sources like thematic risk trends or strong crosswinds from motivated counterparts...
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