Latest Posts
-
Finance 0
Dollar Will Continue To Trend Higher
Returning from a two-week business trip to Asia, I was invited to appear on Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Francine Lacqua. My key points include,the driver now is changing perceptions of the trajectory of Fed policy and the reemergence of divergence. I suggest that “real news” from the G7 meeting was not about intervention, as neither the US, Europe, nor Japan’s position changed, but rather the fact that Japan will go ahead with the sales tax increase next year. I argue it was unreasonable to expect the BOJ to ease policy so quickly after the move to negative rates in January, and cautioned against exaggera... -
Finance 0
Shorting Mediocre Food
Some of you might remember I’m already short Brinker International, the corporation the runs the Chili’s restaurant outfit (home of superbly microwaved prepackaged fare). This massive topping pattern isn’t done yet, but it’s looking better all the day, so I just increased my position. What’s the measured move target price? I’m almost embarrassed to say, but it’s $22.65. I’ve done the same with Buffalo Wild Wings, whose culinary genius is right up there with Chilli’s. I actually ate – for the very first time in my life – at a Buffalo Wild Wings last night, only because it was near a supercharger in Petaluma and my beloved... -
Finance 0
Beat Up By Outflows, Will The Bombay 30 Rebound?
Since hitting record highs back in March of 2015, the Indian Bombay 30 (also referred to as the SENSEX 30 or BSE 30) equity benchmark has been on a steady retreat after entering a bear market back in January of this year. With global conditions continuing to deteriorate, the developments in the BSE 30 have mirrored changes in other emerging markets. As interest rates rise, investors are abandoning the yields available in emerging markets in favor of quality assets like US Treasuries, leading to outflows from the equities of developing countries. The BSE 30 has felt these flows, with both domestic and foreign investors pulling and reallocati... -
Finance 0
DAX 30 Maintains Choppy Trend
The DAX 30 kept on seesawing this morning and price was firmly stuck between the May 6 low of 9739 and the May 10 high of 10,111. Short-term bursts of momentum between these levels have been hard to predict and until a break to the above-mentioned range occurs, it is likely that price will continue to oscillate with no clear bias. Support levels below the May 6 low of 9739 are the April 12 low of 9617, the April 11 low of 9528 and the April 7 low of 9447. Resistance levels above the May 10 high of 10,111 are the May 2 high of 10,154, the April 29 high of 10,254 and the April 28 high of 10,333. DAX 30 | CFD: GER30 The Markit German Composite P... -
Finance 0
Yep Brexit Would Be A Disaster For The UK
As I have previously warned a vote for Brexit on June 23 would be a disaster for the UK economy. Now the Treasury has published a report outlining how bad the potential disaster will be. I would take the report very seriously and actually I am more pessimistic than the Treasury worst case scenario. I believe the expectational effects would be much worse due to the massive increase in uncertainty which I believe is worse than modelled by the Treasury. I think the report does a pretty good job overall in showing that the effects of a Brexit are multi-dimensional hitting GDP, economic growth, employment, wages, raising inflation, fiscal impact, ... -
Finance 0
Panic-Buyers Lift WTI Crude Back Over $48
Because… fundamentals… Nothing says “Buy Oil” like the weakest US manufacturing PMI since 2009, dismal Japanese trade data, and the European economy collapsing. Chatter is that the catalyst for the move is a Genscape report showing an inventory draw at Cushing WTI had been sliding amid growing optimism for returning Canada production after weather relief over weekend helped firefighters battling wildfires that shut-in more than 1m b/d of production. Brent extends drop into 4th day, falls below $48, as French refinery strikes add to bearish sentiment. “Canada is coming back and refinery strikes in France are bea... -
Finance 0
E The Daily Shot And Data – May 23, 2016
Greetings, We begin with a few developments in the energy markets. 1. The US energy & mining investment growth has declined sharply. While this is bullish for oil in the medium term, there is no shortage of capital waiting on the sidelines that will be quickly redeployed should prices rise further. Source: Macquarie 2. US oil rig count didn’t decline last week – is it stabilizing? Source: @SoberLook 3. Weak energy prices have taken their toll on North Dakota’s economy. 4. Seeing oil prices stabilize, Iran is in no hurry to “freeze” production – as hard currency begins to flow in. Source: ?Reuters Sourc... -
Finance 0
Inflowing Liquidity Conditions…
The Stock Market’s Inflowing Liquidity had an up tick in Lower-Q1 positive territory. (The Inflowing Liquidity is (and has) been challenging its up trend.) Note that the Inflowing Liquidity did briefly breach its support line last week, and it now has an up tick that should challenge its down trending resistance line today.... -
Finance 0
E Are Stocks Lying?
In the wake of the Fed’s Wednesday flip-flop, I’m sitting here looking at my screens. The dollar, Euro, Yen, US Treasury bonds, commodities, gold, silver, and oil all say interest rates are RISING on June 17. Stocks are saying they’re FALLING. The million-dollar question is: Who’s lying? My bet is that it’s stocks that are telling the porky pies. Here is the tell. The Federal Reserve April Open Market Committee minutes said that a rate rise was on the table if the economic data justify it. The problem is that having shown their cards for an imminent rate rise, the global market assumption will be that a rate rise in four weeks is a ...
Top Posts
-
The Importance for Individuals to Use Sustainable Chemicals
-
Small Businesses: Finding the Right Candidate for the Job
-
How to Write the Perfect Thank You Letter After Your Job Interview
-
3 Best Large-Cap Blend Mutual Funds For Enticing Returns
-
China suspected in massive breach of federal personnel data
