For a considerable period of time I have held a very negative opinion on the Euro. The Euro currency has a complicated history. The Maastricht Treaty of 1992 obligated certain Euro nations to adopt a common currency – although it was not until Jan 2002 that currencies such as the D-Mark were officially replaced by the Euro currency mechanism. It is possible to create a proxy EUR that dates back to 1992. In fact, IMM and proxy price data exist back to the early 1970s. Several technical developments on the EUR graphs are worthy of note. A 6-1/2 year descending triangle on the quarterly graph was completed by the decline in Jan 2015. This patt...
In this brave new banking world of impenetrable bureaucratic morass designed to keep us all from ourselves (slogan: don’t panic, there’s a lot of new math), there are new acronyms for just about anything. To regulators, some groups of letters mean a lot more than they might for banks, while investors, loosely defined, focus on still others. One such term found itself in a perfect storm of the all-too-familiar unintended consequences of regulations. There is, of course, a fatal conceit at the heart of all of this – that regulations alone can design a foolproof system. This is not to say that mistakes won’t be made or losses tallied, on...
Stocks were bubbling up to the bar led by big cap tech and financials. This looked like a ‘technical trade’, i.e., a lower volume short squeeze driven by algos. Oh yes, this will almost certainly end well. ...
McDonald’s (MCD) has been a great investment for a very long time… $1 invested in McDonald’s stock would be worth $606.67 by the end of 2015 (including dividends). That’s an annualized return of 14.9% a year. Wouldn’t it be great to generate solid returns without having to identify the ‘next’ McDonald’s? Unfortunately, the days of McDonald’s generating double-digit returns are over. Or maybe not… On April 7th, 2014 McDonald’s stock closed at $97.01.The previous Sunday (April 6th, 2014) McDonald’s was first recommended in the Sure Dividend newsletter. The company’s stock price closed at $122.56 on Friday, May 20...
Fed officials widened opening for a rate hike in June but there seems to be a lot of hesitation around this. An opportunity for a rate hike in July is becoming more and more real. We explain the case for this event and what it means for markets. The movements may not necessarily be the expected ones. All the reasons for a Fed rate hike in July rather June or any other month: ...
Drugs Benitec Biopharma (BNTC) Down Under issued a 9-mo report to the end of March and it is pretty rotten. You know that the Australian startup sacked its CEO after a botch Nasdaq listing last year, and that in Feb. BNTC started to wind down its major drug trial for hepatitis C. Now we also know that is revenues fell 41% year/year in the 9 mos to A$385,000 and its losses topped A$18.5 mn. The tangible net asset value of its shares fell to 17 cents Australian from 20.16 cents as of mid-year 2015. The EPS over the same period fell to minus 13.2 Oz cents from minus 5.4 cents. BNTC is switching its hepatitis work to the B strain because C is no...
People often say that investing in the stock market is gambling, but those same people probably believe that when they’re gambling, they’re actually doing some sort of investing. It’s true – you can gamble, speculate, or invest in the stock market. When you go to a casino, however, you can only gamble. At a casino, the odds are against you. If you “invest” with no appreciation or understanding of what you’re investing in, then you’re probably gambling; at best, you’re speculating. The differences between investing, speculating, and gambling can be easily understood if you know their probability definitions. When you invest (...
If this is what Twitter looks like in an environment in which the Fed is pulling out all the stops and creating a totally fake, hyper-inflated asset market, could you imagine TWTR in a normal price-discovery situation? Somehow the digit “zero” leaps to mind. But here we have it: new lifetime lows today....
Nutraceutical International Corp (NASDAQ: NUTR) is a gem in the nutritional supplements and natural food industry and a small-cap stock that investors need on their radar. The company has a long term growth history with solid profit margins, combined with a low debt ratio over past two decades. Nutraceutical is an integrated manufacturer, distributor and retailer of branded nutritional supplements and natural products sold primarily through domestic health and natural food stores, such as Vitamin Shoppe or Lucky Vitamin. Its products are not sold through mass market retailers like Target or Walmart, so market share is limited compared to othe...