After a brief hiatus from the ongoing currency wars, China fired another salvo at The Fed tonight by devaluing the Yuan fix to 6.5693 – its weakest against the USD since March 2011. After eight days higher in a row for The USD Index, it seems PBOC has turned its currency liberalization plan off, stabilizing the broad Renminbi basket (which has been steadily devalued) and turning its attention to devaluing against the USD. Having unleashed turmoil in August (pre-Sept FOMC) and January (post Dec rate-hike), it appears the rising rate-hike probabilities jawboned by The Fed are decidedly disagreeable to “authoritative persons”...
During the day on Wednesday, we get Flash Services PMI. This of course will have an effect on the US stock markets, but we also get Crude Oil Inventories, and of course a Canadian interest-rate announcement. Because of this, there will be a significant amount of volatility in our expectations. WTI Crude Oil pressuring $50 During the course of the day on Tuesday, the WTI Crude Oil market initially pulled back, but ended up finding enough support to turn things back around. Ultimately, looks as if the market is trying to break out to the upside but the $50 level of course will be a barrier. At this point in time, it’s likely that call buyers ...
Cash on corporate balance sheets grew at a 1% pace to $1.84 billion in 2015. That’s a record level of dollars on the books. On the other hand, debt grew at a clip of nearly 14.8% to $6.6 trillion from $5.75 trillion. That’s a 15% surge in debt obligations. In fact, American companies have grown their debt load at a double-digit annualized rate since the economic recovery began in 2009. Doing so has put corporations in a precarious situation – circumstances where cash as a percentage of debt is lower than at any time since the Great Recession. Obviously, the data points themselves are unnerving. Yet, the trend for cash as a percentage o...
New home sales surged in April to 619k SAAR. That was the highest rate, by far, since January 2008 more than eight years ago. It was also the biggest monthly gain in twenty-four years, which either suggests home sales are more than rebounding or casts doubt upon the quality of the data. Economists left no uncertainty as to which way they are leaning: “Consumers are taking the leap and buying the biggest of big ticket items of their lives and this speaks to confidence. The Federal Reserve can raise rates at their June meeting without fear the economy is going to slow,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. Tho...
Here’s your swing-trading watch-list: Long Amazon (AMZN) Long Medivation (MDVN) Long Aon Corp (AON) Long Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) Short Southwest Airlines (LUV)...
At the Las Vegas MoneyShow, I was part of a lunch panel to discuss the topic of “The Best Stocks to Buy NOW Regardless of Who Wins the Election.” The focus was on dividend paying stocks that fit the theme of the discussion. I was one of six panel members which included a few quite famous names from Wall Street and the financial news outlets. The discussion kicked off with an overall economic forecast from each of the panel members. It was an even split between those predicting an accelerating economy and those who think economic growth will remain slow or even drop into a recession. The consensus became an absence of consensus. I think th...
I have spent a lot of time since returning from speaking at the Money Show out at Las Vegas earlier in the month catching up on my reading. Unfortunately, not much that I have reviewed points to much strength in the domestic economy and worldwide activity remains at its lowest levels since 2009. Global demand looks like it will be anemic at least through year-end. While the United States remains the best house in a bad neighborhood, it is still a fixer-upper home at the moment. We have a contentious presidential election coming up with two candidates that already have the highest unfavorable rating measures in the modern era; these numbers c...
This is a good news/bad news story. Say you’re one of the many people who bought junior gold and silver mining stocks a few years ago — and then watched in horror as they fell day after day, week after week, finally settling at pennies on your dollar. Then, just as they seem to be recovering, you’re notified that some big miner with much less spectacular upside potential is buying one of your little lottery tickets for a premium to the current price — but a fraction of what you paid back in the day. You now own shares of Goldcorp or Agnico Eagle or some other household name, which isn’t bad. But it’s definitely not the 10-bagger y...
Chipotle is still a good company, but overvalued. Analysts are expecting a quick return to normal, but a recent visit indicates that won’t happen quickly. Valued on fundamentals, the stock is a buy assuming the current quarter is a miss. While a friend was in the hospital recently I took her son over to Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG). Our local outlet near Atlanta is no longer as crowded as it once was, but it was busy at lunch time. We were both able to get a good, filling meal for about $10, including a drink, within 10 minutes of our arrival. We left happy. Chipotle’s problems with e.Coli bacteria last year, however, demon...
Update-1 “Growthier” market move sparked by housing data-new home sales jump 16.6% A broad rally today surprised many traders. Technology was a leader up 2% followed by healthcare up 1.49%. US new single family home sales hit an 8 year high a sign of growing prospects for the economy. The green screen prevailed in biotech with many well known stocks up over 2%. The IBB was up 2.26% and the XBI was up 1.86%. Most large and mid-caps were big winners. Gilead Sciences (GILD) finally rebounded 3.47% from 52 week lows to $86.22. Biogen (BIIB) was also up 3%. The bellwether QQQ was also up 2%. Nonetheless skeptics say “fade” this rally be...