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Finance 0
US Market, Big Picture Updated
It’s time again for our ‘Gary’s too lazy to do short-term charts with all sorts of details and parameters’ big picture monthly charts of US indexes. The S&P 500 popped back above the trend line from 2014. Dow is still below its line. NDX is dwelling in a sloppy (read: not bullish looking) pattern way up there below the lower high to 2000. RUT looks even bearisher. But a pattern is a pattern and price is price. Two different things over the near-term. RUT is partying with everyone else right now. SOX has not yet broken the channel line. A higher high to 2015 would load 930. Otherwise, the original target of 750 will have ... -
Finance 0
How Long Will $2 Million Last In Retirement?
Key Points Having a $2 million nest egg (or war chest, depending on how you think about what you’ll be doing in retirement) gives you a lot of flexibility heading into retirement. Everyone’s situation will be different. So much depends on what your goals are for retirement. Running a Monte Carlo simulation is a great way to stress test any long-term investment return scenario. When people start thinking about retirement, they come at it from a number of different angles. They might wonder if they can retire at a certain age; we’ve written about how to retire at 50 and at other ages. Or they might simply wonder at wha... -
Finance 0
Deutsche Bank Or Dumb Bank?
Deutsche bank (DBK) shares dropped to fresh new lows with the various news announcements, as well as a feeling that Germany will not be capable of bailing out the bank. The imminent outcome for DBK is ‘bankruptcy’ while the world will have to bear the brunt of the fallout from all of the complicated ‘derivatives’ which are being held by Deutsche Bank. DBKs’ outstanding ‘derivatives’ exposure is 20x the German GDP and 5x the Eurozone GDP. Amongst all of the chaos, DBKs’ head of currencies trading and emerging-markets debt trading, Ahmet Arinc, has left the company which is the most recent negative news to impact the banks’ fi... -
Finance 0
SP 500 And NDX Futures Daily Charts – The Best Of All Wall Street Worlds
The thunderstorms are booming outside, and I hope this breaks the heat which has been oppressive all day. Whoops, we just lost power. Luckily I have my PC and internet access routers/modem all on UPS. Stocks staged a rally today after the Non-Farms Payrolls came in hot and heavy, Wall Street sees things rolling their way. Jobs are coming so they can ignore the last few months. Note that the last two months were revised lower still. But the Fed is going to find it a hard go to raise rates with the rest of the world cutting, and engaging once again in competitive currency devaluations to support exports, in a ‘beggar your neighborR... -
Finance 0
Consumer Credit Jumps $18.6 B, Mostly Student Loans And Autos
Consumer credit rose 6.25 percent according to the Fed G.19 Consumer Credit Release for May. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 7-1/4 percent. The total rise in consumer credit is $18.6 billion. Non-revolving debt, a category that includes auto loans, student loans, boats, and vacations accounts for $16.2 billion of the total increase. Student loans and motor vehicle loans typically represent the bulk of nonrevolving credit. Thanks to easy credit, subprime auto loans likely played a part, but there are no details to state specific amounts. Revolving credit (... -
Finance 0
Apple Music’s Progress: A Positive Short-Term Indicator For Apple Inc.
Flickr For a few quarters, Apple Inc. (NSDQ:AAPL) investors had focused on the company’s main businesses, from the iPhone cash machine to other emerging businesses like Apple Pay, Apple Music, and Apple Watch. In an earlier article, I described that change as an interim period until Apple will launch its next cash machine– the autonomous/electric Apple Car. However, for now, the company is trying to develop new markets and services to offset the sales decline of its Apple iPhone. The Apple Watch and other new consumer electronic devices from Apple did not quite take off, so investors highlighted the services segment as the one to ... -
Finance 0
The Civilian Labor Force, Unemployment Claims And The Business Cycle
by Jill Mislinski Every week we post an update on new unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving average of this rather volatile indicator. The financial press generally takes a fairly simplistic view of the latest number, and the market often reacts, for a few minutes or a few hours, to the initial estimate, which is always revised the following week. One of our featured charts in the update shows the four-week moving average from the inception of this series in January 1967. The chart, above, however, gives a rather distorted view of Initial Claims. Why? Because it’s based o... -
Finance 0
Leadership Waning
Over the past couple of months, I’ve highlighted some encouraging signs that had accompanied price strength in the market. Unfortunately, most of those signs of strength haven’t persisted as the market is moving close to all time highs. First lets look at the Bullish Percent Index (BPSPX). It finally got above the 2015 highs in March and April of this year, but the subsequent consolidation in the market did serious damage to this indicator. It is still below 60% which is a big drag on the market (and adds the risk of a big decline). Basically, a lot of point and figure charts turned bearish during the last consolidation and haven’t ri... -
Finance 0
Rail Week Ending July 2, 2016: Rail Improves Affected By A Mismatch Of Holiday Weeks. June Rail Movements Down 6.3%
Week 26 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) expanded according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. The short term rolling average’s contraction continues to moderate – but this comparison is affected by the 4th of July being in a different week last year (was in week number 27 in 2015). The deceleration in the rail rolling averages began over one year ago, and now rail movements are being compared against weaker 2015 data. This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues o... -
Finance 0
E Oh Waldo!
Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict everything you said to-day. — ‘Ah, so you shall be sure to be misunderstood.’ — Is it so bad, then, to be misunderstood? Pythagoras was misunderstood, and Socrates, and Jesus, and Luther, and Copernicus, and Galileo, and Newton, and every pure and wis...
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