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Finance 0
New Highs – Here We Come
New highs – here we come…Correct again. The S&P has now taken out the June intermediate cycle high and is only 10 points from taking out the all-time highs. You need to use cycles to spot these turns. This is why the technical crowd, EW crowd, etc. continue to get these wrong. Face it, these guys are never going to spot these turns. You need to understand cycle theory to profit from these major intermediate turning points. You also have to acknowledge and accept that we no longer have free markets and be willing and able to spot when interventions occur. I suggest that if you are still following someone trying to deny market manip... -
Finance 0
5 Stocks With Impressive EV/EBITDA Ratios To Buy Now
Investors generally tend to cling to the price-to-earnings (P/E) metric while looking for bargain stocks. In addition to being a widely used tool for screening stocks, P/E is also a popular metric to work out the fair market value of a company. However, even this universally used valuation multiple is not without its limitations. Is EV/EBITDA a Better Alternative to P/E? While P/E is hands down the most popular equity evaluation ratio, another valuation metric called EV/EBITDA works even better. This ratio is often viewed as a better alternative to P/E as it offers a clearer picture of a company’s valuation and its earnings potential. Also ... -
Finance 0
90% Of June Job ‘Gains’ Went To 55+ Individuals
While the algos have long forgotten about today’s job report whose headline was good enough to unleash an epic buying spree which has pushed the S&P to the highest level since July 2015, a quick read between the lines reveals a continuation of some recent troubling trends, namely that all job gains in recent years have gone exclusively to the oldest segment of the population, those 55 and older. First, as the chart below shows, when breaking down the job additions by age group as per the Household Survey, of the 180K jobs added in this particular survey, 259,000 were in the 55 and over age group, while only 28,000 were added in the cri... -
Finance 0
Gold Bull Confirmed: What Next?
Our proprietary cycle indicator reached 100%, which is the highest level ever. It cannot go higher, but prices can remain firm at current levels. Speculation according to COT data is now back at bull market values. Summary A bull market in gold and silver is now confirmed, but for risk management, we shall wait for the next cycle bottom to begin accumulating positions for the long term. A multiweek correction is long overdue and can start anytime.... -
Finance 0
Dividend Payers And Dividend ETFs Post Strong Returns YTD
A few prior posts have provided detail and potential consequences facing dividend focused equities given their extended valuations. Of course, in a low (and going lower?) interest rate world it seems the simple approach an investor can pursue is just buying a stock that has a higher yield than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. S&P Dow Jones Indices recently reported on the average performance of the dividend and non dividend paying stocks in the S&P 500 Index. Maybe no surprise, but the payers are swamping the non payers this year and over the last twelve months as of June 30, 2016. As the below table details, the payers have outperformed ... -
Finance 0
USD/JPY Risks Further Losses On Soft U.S. Data, Dovish Fed Rhetoric
Fundamental Forecast for JPY: Bullish EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Down-Trend Back with Vengeance USD/JPY Technical Analysis: The Proverbial Falling Knife Avoid the pitfalls of trading by steering clear of classic mistakes. Review these principles in the “Traits of Successful Traders” series. For more updates, sign up for David’s e-mail distribution list. Key developments coming out of the U.S. economy may largely influence the USD/JPY exchange rate over the week ahead as the economic docket remains fairly light for Japan. Despite the stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, a slowdown in U.S. Retail Sales ... -
Finance 0
Insider Weekends – Edition 316
Insider buying decreased last week with insiders buying $44.58 million of stock compared to $53.24 million in the week prior. Selling also declined sharply with insiders selling $422.31 million of stock last week compared to $984.67 million in the week prior. Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week decreased to 9.69. In other words, insiders sold almost 10 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares favorably with the prior week, when the ratio stood at 18.49. W... -
Finance 0
Quarterly GDP Forecast And Economic Releases For The Weeks Of July 11 And 18
Quarterly Forecasts(percent) Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 Q317 2015 2016 2017 GDP: Annual 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.4 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.0 2.3 GDP: Q4/Q4 2.0 2.2 2.2 CPI: Year/Year 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.3 0.1 1.5 2.3 Core CPI: Y/Y 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.3 Unemployment Rate 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.3 4.9 4.6 Fed Funds: End Qtr 0.375 0.375 0.625 0.625 0.875 0.875 0.375 0.625 1.125... -
Finance 0
DSA Financial Corporation Declares A Quarterly Dividend And Reports Earnings
LAWRENCEBURG, Ind., July 08, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — DSA Financial Corporation (OTCBB:DSFNDSFN) — John P. Young, President and Chief Executive Officer of DSA Financial, announced today that the Company’s board of directors has declared a dividend on its common stock of $0.11 per share. The dividend is payable on August 9, 2016 to stockholders of record as of July 25, 2016. DSA Financial Corporation also announced its consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter and the fiscal year ended June 30, 2016. For the quarter ended June 30, 2016, the Company recorded net earnings of $158,000 or $0.10 per share as compared to $1... -
Finance 0
2007 All Over Again, Part 5: Banking Crisis Imminent
Our good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a chart from the St. Louis Fed that shows the US drifting back into yet another banking crisis The green line tracks fluctuations in the US yield curve, defined as the difference in yield between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. When the yield curve is steeply positive, banks are able to borrow short at low rates and lend long at higher rates, earning a nice return and in the process driving economic growth. When the yield curve flattens the opposite occurs, with banks unable to make money and becoming reluctant to lend. So a flattening yield curve implies a slowing economy. Note the similarity between ...
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