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  • Finance 0

    Chart Of The Day – Gold & The Dollar

    While I’m expecting some kind of pullback at the $1390-$1400 level, I don’t think gold’s intermediate cycle will top until at least retracing the 50% Fibonacci level and probably back to $1550 by September. This will almost certainly be driven by an aggressive move down in the US Dollar as it really starts to accelerate into the next 3 year cycle low due sometime next summer or fall. The dollar couldn’t even close above the 200 DMA on the monster jobs report. Notice the 200 DMA is rolling over. The net intermediate cycle low will be due in September or early October. I don’t think a test of the 85 zone is an unreasonable target....
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Oilmageddon, Central Banks And Liquidity: The 3 “Feedback Loops” Keeping Citi Up At Night

    In recent months we have seen a dramatic spike in visualizations by sellside analysts, who appear to have finally grasped the reflexive nature of markets first noted so many years ago by none other than George Soros, which – with the Fed involved in all of them – show just why Janet Yellen is trapped. First, it was Bank of America who in early may sketched the not-so-merry-go-round framing the relationship between the Fed and the market as follows (for our commentary read here): Then just a few weeks later, when Goldman soured on China and the Yuan, the vampire squid revealed the Fed-China “doom loop” showing the Cat...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Weekly Trading Forecast: Fueling Fed, Brexit And China Fundamental Speculation

    This past week was concentrated on a singular event – NFPs which materially bested expectations. Ahead, we will tap into key global themes from Brexit with the BoE decision to China GDP and Eurozone stability. US Dollar Forecast – USDollar Shows Little Deference to NFPs, Conviction Comes from Abroad It would seem that the Dollar had strong fundamental fuel to revive its climb this past week, but the currency made little effort to revive its post-Brexit rally. British Pound Forecast – While Brexit Makes the Waves, Carney Drives the Pound The British Pound continues to get smashed in the post-Brexit environment, with this week seeing ye...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Emerging Markets: Preview Of The Week Of July 11

    EM and other risk assets rallied on Friday after the strong US jobs data.  It appears that markets are pricing in a benign backdrop for risk near-term; that is, the US economy is recovering but not by enough to warrant an imminent Fed rate hike.  The July 27 meeting seems unlikely, and so the next likely window would be September 21.  Yet EM typically weakens in the run-up to FOMC meetings and so investors should be very careful about taking on too much risk. China has been on the back burner leading up to the Brexit vote and in its aftermath.  It reports a slew of data this week, which are all expected to show continued but modest slo...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Energy Limits: Why We See Rising Wealth Disparity And Low Prices

    Written by Gail Tverberg, Our Finite World  The world economy is shrinking. The evidence is all around us. All we have to do is be rational to understand. Yet the world is in denial. Last week, I gave a fairly wide-ranging presentation at the 2016 Biophysical Economics Conference called Complexity: The Connection Between Fossil Fuel EROI, Human Energy EROI, and Debt (pdf). In this post, I discuss the portion of the talk that explains several key issues: Why we are right now seeing so many problems with respect to wealth disparity and low commodity prices (Answer: World per capita energy consumption is already falling, and the energy/e...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    US Share Market Retesting The Major Highs

    Despite the bears, the US share market continues to press against new highs. The Cash S&P 500 closed at 212990 after reaching 213171 intraday. The record high remains the week of May 18th, 2015 when it reached 213472 closing at 212606. The highest weekly closing was the week of July 13th, 2015 at 212664.  Therefore, we have not made a new intraday high, but this was the highest weekly closing. The Dow close at 1814674 on Friday, which was neither a new high weekly closing nor a new intraday high. The highest weekly closing was the week of May 11th, 2015 when the Dow closed at 1827256. It appears we should see a turning point this week wi...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    IPO Market Outlook For Second Half Of 2016

    We’ve officially hit July. By now, most of us have forgotten our New Year’s resolutions to exercise more, and instead we spend our time inside of our air conditioned homes eating basically whatever we want to. Well, at least that what’s what I have been doing. However, I’m here today to introduce a new concept: the second half of the year resolution. It’s a simple concept. We take this time to reinvigorate ourselves and have a great second half of 2016. I was inspired to think of this idea after taking a look at the performance of IPOs in the first half of the year. So far we’ve seen just over 40 IPOs priced in the United States, ...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    E Challenging The High

    Last week, SPX traded within inches of its all-time high. After a much better than expected jobs report on Friday, bulls took control and drove the SPX up to 2131.71, only 3 points from the 5/15 high of 2134.72. Some profit-taking occurred in the last minutes, and it closed at 2129.39. This puts it at the very top of the resistance band which has defeated all attempts at making a new high for the past 14 months. Will this one succeed? To be completely objective, the jury is still out!  By Friday’s close, varying degrees of negative divergence plagued all oscillators, from weekly to hourly.  As we know, negative divergence is only a warnin...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    Bulkowski, Chart Patterns: After The Buy

    Thomas Bulkowski has been researching chart patterns for years. His Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns was first published in 2000 and became an instant classic. Since then he has written several more books on trading and chart patterns, including Trading Classic Chart Patterns, Getting Started in Chart Patterns, Encyclopedia of Candlestick Charts, Visual Guide to Chart Patterns, and a three-volume series on the evolution of a trader. Chart Patterns: After the Buy (Wiley, 2016) is, I believe, his best books yet. He looks at 20 popular chart patterns and analyzes, using 43,229 case books, how they tend to play out. One qualifier: he ...
    On July 10, 2016 / By
  • Finance 0

    June 11th Binary Options Asset Insights

    With almost nothing moving the markets due to economic calendar events on Monday, we will focus on the jobs number from Friday. The United States added 270,000+ jobs during the previous month, and as a result will have an influence on the following three markets, thereby having us pay attention. Gold The gold markets initially fell during the day, in reaction to the stronger than anticipated jobs number in America, as the US dollar strengthened. However, by the end of the day we ended up turning right back around in forming a hammer. This suggests that the call buyers are very much interested in this market still.   USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair ...
    On July 10, 2016 / By