The only economic data of note yesterday was the notoriously unreliable personal income and spending figures. The data series contained within the suite are subject to not just major benchmark revisions but significant revisions within just the high frequency time frames. Perhaps the most pertinent example of this is the personal savings rate which has been revised all over the place such that there cannot be any confidence whatsoever in the statistic. As of this moment and the latest data, the personal savings rate is thought to be 5.7% in July 2016, up from 5.5% in June. Last month, the savings rate for June was originally believed to be 5....
The US dollar is trading firmly, largely within yesterday’s ranges. The odds implied by the September Fed fund futures eased to 36% from 42% before the weekend, but ahead of Fischer’s Bloomberg TV appearance, and tomorrow’s ADP employment estimate, the market seems cautious about fading the dollar’s strength. There are several developments to note today. First is the batch of Japanese data. The key takeaway is that the labor market remains tight, with the unemployment rate slipping to 3.0%, the lowest since 1995, and consumption appears to have begun Q3 on a firm note. Employment rose by 200k in July, while unemp...
For most of the world, the past decade’s monetary and fiscal experiments are viewed as failures. See, for instance, French support for the EU project crumbling on both left and right and Why were smart people suckered by Abenomics? So what do the best and brightest now running global economic policy do when their experiments don’t work? Apparently they double down, repeating the experiment with an even bigger dose. In Japan: BOJ Needs Massive Move to Shock & Awe, $2 Trillion Investor Says (Bloomberg) – The Bank of Japan could announce a “massive stimulus program” as the nation seeks to reach a 2 percent inflation target, acco...
WTI Crude Oil The WTI Crude Oil market fell slightly during the course of the session on Monday, as we continue to see quite a bit of volatility. The $46 level below causes quite a bit of support, as we have seen previously, as well as quite a bit of resistance at that level. This is a market that continues to chop around sideways due to the fact that we may have to take a bit of a breather after the recent explosion to the upside. However, I believe that we break down below the $46 level would be a short-term selling opportunity based upon the fact that we formed a shooting star on Friday. On the other hand, if we break above the top of the ...
During the course of 2, we get a handful of small level announcements, so having said that it will probably be a fairly quiet session and therefore explosive moves aren’t going to be very likely. However, we are looking at the following 3 assets. Gold During the course of the day on Monday, the gold market went back and forth as we continue to see quite a bit of support just below. With this being the case, it’s likely that sooner or later there will be value hunters jumping into this market, but at this point it seems to be very choppy. With this, there seems to be quite a bit of support just below. DAX The German index did very little d...
Economist John Maynard Keynes described the effects of inflation citing Vladimir Ilyich Lenin this way: “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-g...
Previous: The euro/dollar closed slightly up on Monday. During trades in the States the pair dropped to 1.1158 on data regarding personal consumption expenditure. In shifting the minimum, the price returned to 1.1193. The reaction to the stats was weak since the UK was having a bank holiday. Trader activity was low. Market expectations: There’s no important macro data planned to be released today. All traders will be focussed on the US labour market data from Friday. The euro is trading down in Asia by 0.14% against Monday’s closing price. Going off the hourly indicators, the pair is ready to restore itself to 1.1210. Graphical analysis i...
Saudi Arabia isn’t the only oil-dependent nation struggling to make ends meet in the wake of weak oil prices. For the first time since its establishment in 1996, the Norwegian government is starting to withdraw money from its sovereign wealth fund to cover government expenses. In fact, in the first half of 2016 the government has withdrawn $5.4 billion. Moreover, withdrawals are expected to accelerate in 2H 2016 reaching nearly $20 billion, a run-rate that would have them exceeding the fiscal limits imposed on fund withdrawals of 4% of assets, or $36 billion. To put those withdrawals into perspective, Norway’s economy is rou...
You may recall a few months ago I gave my two-cents on a segment from Last Week Tonight with John Oliver that discussed the importance of using a fiduciary for a financial adviser – regardless if they are advising your company’s 401(k) or your own brokerage account. My intention is not to frighten anyone into a panic by writing this piece, but for some of you, the impact will be more profound that you thought. It’s important to highlight, that you as an employee of any company have a legal right to inquire and receive regular information regarding the money you transfer to a 401(k) or any retirement savings firm. However,...
What we know for certain is that the Daily Cycle is well into the timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL), and has reached a new low on day 44. To the naked eye, equities appear poised to move even lower. But from a Cycles standpoint, the S&P is now in a position to move significantly higher. The Investor Cycle outlook is largely the same. The S&P rocketed to a new high from what looked to be the start of a bear market decline in June, and has since (past 4 weeks) been consolidating the gains via time. The S&P now appears ready to move higher again. Since a new all-time high was made in the current Investor Cycle, it’s really...