The EUR/AUD is making a progressive M pattern characterized by a double top which in turn makes a POC zone (H3, DPP, trend line) 1.4340-50. The move has already happened so any retest could reject the price again (2nd rejection). Ideally inner trend line should hold for continuation of bearish move. Further continuation is seen below the inner trend line and if H1 candle closes below 1.4280. Close below would target 1.4245 and h4 close below 1.4245 should aim for 1.4185. The EUR/AUD is making a progressive M pattern characterized by a double top which in turn makes a POC zone (H3, DPP, trend line) 1.4340-50. The move has already happened so a...
There’s a 60 percent likelihood of a recession in the next four years, according to The Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists. The economists pegged the odds of a recession beginning in the next 12 months at about 20 percent, an estimate with which I concur. Let’s talk about why we’ll likely have a recession, and what businesses can do about it now. (See also the statistical note at the bottom of the article.) The current expansion is fairly old, as expansions go, over seven years of age compared to an historical average of just over three years. But the length of an expansion does not correlate with the probability of a recessi...
Not much happening right now (since the market seems to be struggling with just how to interpret all the economic data that just came in), so I’ll share one particular short I like a lot: Lamar Advertising (LAMR). Looking closely, you can see the nice little top it has made, and my hope is that we’ll slip ever-lower into the 50s. The bigger picture is more exciting, because – even though it’s not shown here – this is the third major “top” that has taken place in the entire dataset for this company, and the failure of long-term trendlines indicates to me this could be a short that’s worth holding on to for the duration....
There is no doubt that 2016 has been a good year for ETF investors directing their capital towards income-generating asset classes. The combination of a rising stock market and falling interest rates have helped push prices higher across virtually every segment of the economy. This of course has depressed current yields. But on a total return basis, you are looking fairly good as long as you didn’t do something foolish like sell in February and remain in cash. In early August, I wrote an article about the scarcity of value in income generating ETFs due in large part to this broad push higher.It essentially broke down the current landsca...
The residential real estate market is a high growth industry in China. According to an Ibisworld report, the industry grew 9% annually over the last five years to be worth $949 billion in 2015. The industry is also not immune to the advancement of Internet in the country. There is an increasing presence of an online-to-offline model where online portals such as SouFun (SFUN?) and Leju (LEJU) not only help facilitate buying and selling of houses but also offer additional services geared towards the home owner. Then there are several smaller ones that are creatingLEJU a ripple by creating pricing wars and following a niche market focus. One suc...
STOCK NEWS Merk (MRK) / Pfizer (PFE): announced positive results from a Phase clinical trial for VERTIX SITA2. The trial evaluated ertugliflozin in patients with type 2 diabetes on a background of sitagliptin and stable metformin. The two companies will file New Drug Applications for ertugliflozen and two fixed doses by the end of the year and will file regulatory applications outside the US in 2017. Pandora (P): launched Pandora Plus which is $5 per month version of Pandora One. It allows for unlimited skips and replays and an offline mode that keeps music playing when the connection drops. Pandora plans to release its on-demand service w...
The Motiva refinery is the leading contender to purchase the Lyondell Basell Industries refinery in Houston. Motiva is the largest refinery in the U.S. and was, until recently, co-owned by Saudi Aramco and Shell. By April 2017, Motiva will be fully controlled by Saudi interests as will any properties it acquires. Bidding for a Refinery in Houston The Lyondell refinery is likely a bargain for Saudi Aramco, as the refinery has suffered a series of fires and power outages that have stalled operations of late. It is clearly in need of repair, and its Dutch owner, Lyondell, has been looking sell. The refinery mostly supplies feedstock for Lyond...
The USD/JPY aka “ninja” has been printing out higher highs and higher lows on intra-day charts. If 101.75 holds we might see another push towards 102.70 and 103.05 as we can see a T89 on H4 chart. POC comes withing 102.05-102.18 (trend line/steep trend line, L3, X-Cross ™,historical buyers). Although I am not a fan of steep trend lines, this one follows the price and it is making an X-Cross ™ with other confluence factors. New rejection could use a fresh momentum from a new higher low towards fresh daily highs. However, if 101.75 fails we could see a dip towards 101.30....
The strongest small cap sector is financials. The best small cap industry is specialized semi. The average small cap score this week is 51.79. For perspective, the average small cap score over the past four weeks is 54.14. The average small cap stock in our universe is trading -26.16% below its 52 week high, 3.19% above its 200 dma, and has 8.08 days to cover held short. The best sectors are financials, industrial goods, consumer goods, and technology. Healthcare, utilities, services, and basics score below average. The following are the best and worst small cap stocks in our universe. The next chart shows how many stocks in our universe ar...