Phase One began in January 2016, and slowed down from July until early October. (Charts in this commentary are courtesy Stockcharts.com, unless indicated). The first sign of a turnaround can be seen in this chart: Featured is PHYS the Sprott Gold Trust. Price produced an Upside Reversal (blue arrow), on Oct. 7th. Since it happened at the bottom of the rising channel and at the 200 Day Moving Average, this was an important clue. Confirmation occurred on Oct. 18th, with price breaking out above recent congestion. (See the zoom chart at right). The supporting indicators have turned positive (green lines), and the 50DMA is in positive alignment...
The dollar took a break in its gains, with the data having just a bit of an impact. The data is mostly being ignored in the UK, with hopes for a not-too-hard Brexit helping the pound. The focus now shifts to the ECB, ever more embroiled in politics, as well as the last presidential debate in the US, with Trump already looking for the exits. Wrap up of the morning show for October 19th 2016: Video length: 00:03:52 Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs...
More haunting even than the terrified screams of lambs being led was the silence that followed their slaughter. Such was the searing pain of relentless recollection for FBI agent Clarice Starling, the tortured lead played to Oscar perfection by Jodie Foster. In an agonizingly whispered scene that has forever left its imprint on the minds of horrified audiences, we hear the bleating of Starling’s long-dead tormentors. Clarice’s hushed revelations to Hannibal reveal a desperate act by her young orphaned self. Unable to bear the horror, she’s running away from the bloodbath of spring lambs being slaughtered and her cousin’s sheep ranch. ...
The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for September new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.047M was below the Investing.com forecast of 1.175M. The August count was revised upward by 8K. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report: Privately-owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,047,000. This is 9.0 percent (±9.2%)* below the revised August estimate of 1,150,000 and is 11.9 percent (±11.9%) below the September 2015 rate of 1,189,000. Single-family housing starts in September were at a rate of 78...
There is growing evidence that not only is the global oil market back in balance, but there is a strong possibility that global demand is already outstripping daily oil output. Another big drop in US oil inventory, the 6th in 7 weeks and a 6.7 GDP reading in China adds more weight to the global oil supply versus daily production argument. The conversation in oil will start to change from the talk of glut to the talk of shrinking global supply. Extraordinary cutbacks in global energy cap-ex spending is starting to show up as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reports a 3.8-million-barrel drawdown in oil supply. We are seeing US oil supply ...
eBay (EBAY): eBay’s dominance in the late 90’s and early 2000’s has largely disappeared thanks to the emergence of Amazon (AMZN) and other online retailers. This had resulted in a string of dismal earnings and a sell off in the stock. Until recently, its prospects appeared limited. Its recent departure from PayPal put a thorn in the side of investors as the online payment platform continued to succeed. Now after a few stronger than expected quarters under its belt, analysts are optimistic that this upcoming report will be strong. The company has taken several initiatives to improve user engagement and thereby revenue. They include usin...
Yesterday, the VIX had a down tick which was a positive since the VIX moves in the opposite direction of the stock market. However, there is a concern in the coming days which is that the VIX could hold its blue support line which would put it in danger of moving back up so be cautious....
Hanging onto support becomes increasingly difficult for an S&P 500 that is lacking in leadership, unable to get much going with rebounds or favorable responses to big-cap earnings (typically sold into), and the market is in an increasingly perilous posture regarding the possibility of taking out recent lows. Technically . . I have highlighted the underlying ‘vacuum’ beneath the September lows (we got very close again twice in the last few days) that in my humble opinion should not be a comforting picture for any money manager to look at, especially those that are locked in heavily long or not easily ‘pliable’ portf...
Crude Oil tends to be an important commodity, on a global scale. A “Trend reversal” is being attempted by this important and influential asset. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Crude has been confined inside of a narrowing pennant pattern the past few months. A couple of weeks ago, Crude started making an attempt to break above pennant pattern resistance. So far it is a couple of percent above the top of the pennant pattern. Now Crude is testing its 2015 highs at (2). If Crude can take out these highs, it should attract buying pressure to Crude. The Power of the Pattern is humbly of the opinion, what happens at (2), should have a large impact on...
Morgan Stanley (MS) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) released their latest earnings reports before opening bell this morning. Morgan Stanley reported 81 cents per share in earnings on $8.91 billion in revenue. Analysts had been expecting 63 cents per share in earnings on $8.13 billion in revenue. In last year’s third quarter, the firm reported 34 cents per share in earnings and $7.77 billion in revenue. Abbott Laboratories posted earnings of 59 cents per share on $5.3 billion in revenue, compared to the consensus estimates of 58 cents per share and $5.29 billion. Morgan Stanley rises on solid earnings Image: Flickr Morgan Stanley’s net inter...