The US Cash Deficit for February 2017 came in at $219B wiping out January’s small surplus and bringing the YTD cash deficit through 2 months to $186B. Revenue: Revenue was down 9B from last year which in itself isn’t surprising given that last February had an extra day and favorable timing. What is surprising is that the year over year was down despite refunds being down by $20B. Taking a step back February is generally the largest month for refunds in the year, and I account for refunds as a reduction in revenue rather than an expense/outlay. So looking at February 2016, traditional revenues were $283B, but were reduced to $149B by $1...
Adjusting withholding can sometimes produce a surprise. While preparing a client’s tax return the other day, the result was that he had nearly a $5,000 refund coming. Often when we have a large refund coming we think “Nice! It’s like an unexpected gift!” But as you’ll see below, this is not a gift – it’s actually costing quite a lot in taxes in this particular case. Naturally, as in most cases like this, I reviewed his income sources and withholding to see if there was anything obvious that we could change for him that would make his withholding more efficient. You see, it’s most efficient to have no refund at all from the I...
Three new trade setups – one of them long and the other being short. Either way this market decides to take us, you’ll have some options at your disposal. Keep the edge in your corner. Trade what you see always, manage the risk, and let the profits take care of themselves. Here’s the Stockwatch: Long Applied Materials (AMAT) Long Dentsply Int’l (XRAY) Short US Silica Holdings (SLCA)...
by Reverse Engineer, Doomstead Diner I ran across a chart on Bloomberg which is perhaps the best demonstration to date that the Oil Economy is in Full On Collapse mode now. The chart is of Oil Inventory in storage, and covers the last 35 years since 1982 of Oil Inventory in the FSoA, and is the first graphic below the picture. Do you note the Hockey Stick nature of this graph? For 35 years until 2014, Oil Inventories were kept within a very narrow range. Supply & Demand were kept in balance by the folks in control of both the extraction of Oil and the production of money. A more or less steady “growth” rate of the entire sy...
SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered short SPX 1/31/17 at 2278.87 =.09% gain; Short on 1/30/17 at 2280.90 Monitoring purposes Gold: Sold GDX at 24.33 on 2/22/07 = gain 20.15%; Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28 Last Wednesday volume appears to have been climatic and may put a stop to the rally that started in February. The up gap that was produced last Wednesday has support if tested on lighter volume and the last couple of days where tested on lighter volume. If the gap than holds a rally should ensue to test the previous high. The previous high (which is the gap day) which has the ...
With interest rates still at historic lows and the stock market soaring, income investors are hard pressed to find good places to put new capital to work. As a result, high-yield stocks such as Royal Dutch Shell (RDS-A) often attract investors with the promise of mouthwatering yields. But while there are excellent high-yield stocks out there, a very high yield can also be an important red flag that a company’s fundamentals have deteriorated to the point that the payout may no longer be safe. Our Dividend Safety Scores can help separate the risky high yield stocks from the safer ones. Let’s take a closer look at this integrated oil compa...
The Chart of the Day belongs to BCB Bancorp (BCBP). I found the New Jersey saving bank by using Barchart to sort the list of the Top Stocks to Own first by the most frequent new highs in the last month, then again by technical buy signals of 80% or more. BCB Community Bank, founded in November 2000. The Bank started with just one branch in Bayonne, New Jersey. After 10 years of success and growth, BCB acquired Pamrapo Savings Bank, also headquartered in Bayonne, but with reach into neighboring communities. Soon after this expansion, BCB acquired Allegiance Community Bank, headquartered in South Orange, New Jersey. The status of Barchar...
The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 57.7 in February 2017, the highest value since August 2014 (revised). It was just slightly less than that peak in the 2014 “reflation” cycle. Given these comparisons, economic narratives have been spun further than even the past few years where “strong” was anything but. The ISM’s gauge of orders increased to the highest level in just over three years, while an index of production posted its best reading since March 2011. The data were preceded by recent regional indicators showing similar strength that has prevailed since the presidential election as companies begin to step up investment and th...
Podcast: Play in new window | Play in new window (Duration: 13:15 — 7.6MB) DOW – 51 = 20,954 SPX – 7 = 2375 NAS – 21 = 5849 RUT – 9 = 1384 10 Y flat = 2.49% OIL – .12 = 53.21 GOLD – 8.80 = 1226.50 On this date in 2009, the S&P 500 hit an intraday low of 666; the closing low was 3 days later but the intraday low was 8 years ago. On Friday, Fed chair Janet Yellen signaled that an interest rate hike would likely come when Fed leaders meet next week. A March rate hike is now being priced into the markets. About the only thing that could change the Fed’s plan is weak economic data, giving extra significance to Friday’s ...