Two weeks ago, we pointed out that when Philadelphia became the first US city to pass a soda tax last summer, city officials were eagerly looking forward to the surplus-tax funded windfall to plug gaping budget deficits (and, since this is Philadelphia, the occasional embezzlement scheme). Then, one month ago, after the tax went into effect on January 1st we showed the tax applied in practice: a receipt for a 10 pack of flavored water carried a 51% beverage tax. And since PA has a sales tax of 6% and Philly already charges another 2%, the total sales tax was 8%. In other words, a purchase which until last year came to $6.47 had overnight ...
AUDNZD intra-day analysis AUDNZD (1.0875): The Australian dollar is seen some strong gains this morning following the RBA’s rate decision. The Kiwi, on the other hand, is trading subdued with data from earlier this week showing weaker dairy prices. On the hourly chart on AUDNZD, price action has formed a doji near the top end of the rally with prices consolidating into a steep wedge pattern. Near term support at 1.0858 is the initial obstacle as a break below this level could signal further downside towards 1.0761. Also, watch for a potential inside bar formation on the hourly chart for AUDNZD which will be another clue for the downside...
Hedge fund manager Lisa M Jones is the CEO and President of the $28.42 billion Pioneer Investment Management fund. In Q4 she demonstrated a bullish attitude towards NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) and Apple Inc.(AAPL), but 13F forms filed with the SEC reveal that she slashed the fund’s shares in semiconductor Micron Technology, Inc. (MU). Jones is ranked #63 out of 202 hedge funds tracked by financial accountability engine TipRanks. The ranking is based on the performance of Pioneer Investment Management. The fund has been generating respectable returns of 14.71% on a three-year annualized basis, rising to just under 18.6% last year. We can se...
With the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on deck later this week for upcoming nonfarm payrolls, only one obstacle still remains in the Federal Reserve’s way when it comes to adjusting rates at the upcoming FOMC Meeting. In keeping with the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, the Central Bank targets maximum employment alongside medium-term inflation of 2.00%. While last week’s data pertaining to Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE inflation) came in just below the target, the gradual trend higher shows that inflation is meeting expectations of officials. After meeting one of two mandates, employment is the big looming question t...
Just as generals prepare to fight the last war, central banks prepare to battle the last financial crisis–which in the present context means a big-bank liquidity meltdown like the one that nearly toppled thr global financial system in 2008-09. Planning to win the next war by assuming it will be a copy of the last confict is an excellent strategy for losing the next war. The same holds true for the next financial crisis: reckoning that it will be a repeat of 2008 is an excellent way to be caught completely off-guard. Crises may rhyme, but they don’t repeat. The next Global Financial Meltdown won’t start in subprime mortgage...
Concho recently stated there was little acreage in the Permian to acquire at a reasonable price. This shows that operators are focusing on the area, due to very good well results and a stacked payzone. We believe consolidation will continue. The upcoming driving season may push Permian operator valuations higher, and this could also increase activity in the basin. The Delaware Basin is extremely profitable, and with the expectation of costs decreasing faster than in Midland, we believe Delaware Basin economics could match or surpass valuations on a per acre basis. The chart below provides the activity in Reeves County. Name Well Cou...
AT40 = 52.7% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 65.2% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 11.2 (volatility index)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Here we go again. Divergence is rearing its head again and bringing a dose of reality to the setup for the S&P 500 (SPY). The index lost just 0.3% but closed just below its now former primary uptrend channel defined by the upper-Bollinger Bands (BBs). At the low of the day, the index effectively closed the gap from last week’s impressive breakout. I am surprised by this looming bearish action given the index se...
One of the biggest questions investors have is what type of environment are stocks and the economy in, deflation or inflation? Knowing the answer to that question can give you a heads up on what different sectors to invest in and what sectors to stay away from. I would like to update some of the different commodities indexes to see if they can give us any clues on which way the deflationary or inflationary pendulum is swinging. Commodities are often an under analysed asset class as compared to Stocks and Bonds. However they are the nuts and bolts , the real stuff supporting human existence. Lets start with one of the oldest commodities index...
Our two leading scenarios for the U.S. Dollar Index (see charts below)…[indicate that] it makes sense for gold bulls to temper expectations. Why? Because both scenarios favor a Dollar advance that would hinder any gold rally… Written by TradingOnTheMark.com When the Dollar Index broke out of its consolidation pattern in 2014, it strengthened the case that the developing Elliott wave pattern would turn out to be a five-wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v) impulsive move upward. Subsequent price action has matched that expectation. Now we are counting the index’s progress up from its 2016 low as the fifth and probably final wave of th...
Crude oil prices remain trapped in the consolidation of 2017 that followed the dramatic rise over the majority of 2016 after falling as low as $26/bbl in February. On Monday, the fundamentals of the Oil market received a favorable surprise when Iraq noted that OPEC would most likely need to extend output cuts, which have recently seen a 90%+ compliance rate. The reduction in supply from OPEC in accordance with balancing oversupply that caused much of the downturn in 2014-2016 has been met with strong supply expansion projects from non-OPEC members. Many see this fundamental tug-of-war as a key factor in the lack of price breakout on...