About once a quarter, we calculate the market capitalization for the U.S. new home market, where we multiply the number of reported new home sales each month by their reported average sale prices. Once we have those figures, we calculate trailing 12 month average of these market cap figures to account for annual seasonality in the sales data, which we then visualize in the form of charts. The results of that exercise can tell us quite a lot about the state of the new home market in the U.S., which for this edition, suggests that new home sales are stalling out once again, indicating that things are slowing down for the U.S. homebuilding indus...
Pound/dollar is trading at 1.2207, the lowest level since January 17th. At that time, the US dollar was at its strongest and Theresa May laid out her Hard Brexit vision. The pair was trading at the 1.24 handle and a bit around this level for a few weeks but has deteriorated to lower ground. What is behind the fall? Fed hawkishness: The US dollar strengthened across the board as the Federal Reserve made a concerted effort to tell us that they are going to raise rates in March. Markets had not priced this beforehand, but comments from Williams, Dudley, Fischer, Brainard and finally Yellen made clear everybody got the memo. In fact, when Ye...
After opening the day on a flat note, share markets in India have remained range bound and are trading marginally below the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables sector and stocks in the power sector leading the gains, while stocks in the metal sector are trading in red. The BSE Sensex is trading down by 68 points (down 0.2%), and the NSE Nifty is trading down by 23 points (down 0.3%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading up by 0.2%, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading flat. The rupee is trading at 66.64 to the US$. In news about the economy. Global rating ag...
Francois Fillion in meeting for the primaries of the political party Les Republicains. If there’s one thing that Brexit and the U.S. elections have shown, the only certainty, at least in the current global landscape is uncertainty. Opinion polls have continued to shift back and forth, and so far, the major narrative has been that Le Pen will be reaching the second round of elections. Opinion polls and prominent names from the Eurozone have all ruled out a Le Pen victory. While it seems like a lucrative option to bet on a Le Pen victory, the outcome from Brexit and the U.S. elections points to the fact that anything is possible. Michel Sapin...
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the resistance trend line (red) but the reaction has been mild and choppy, which makes an expanded correction within waves Y (green/blue) likely. A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue. 1 hour The EUR/USD tested the resistance trend line (red) one more time, which could be a wave 5 (orange) within wave A (blue). Price has bounced at the 50% Fib and could continue towards the wave C (blue) targets at the Fib...
EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD indeed bounced at the resistance trend line (red) but the reaction has been mild and choppy, which makes an expanded correction within waves Y (green/blue) likely. A break above resistance (red) could see price move higher to test the Fibonacci levels of wave 2 (purple) but a push above the 100% level invalidates the wave structure. A break below support (green) could see the downtrend continue. 1 hour The EUR/USD tested the resistance trend line (red) one more time, which could be a wave 5 (orange) within wave A (blue). Price has bounced at the 50% Fib and could continue towards the wave C (blue) targets at the Fib...
For today’s edition of our upgrade list, we used our website’s advanced screening functions to search for UPGRADES to BUY or STRONG BUY with complete forecast and valuation data. They are presented by one-month forecast return. Health Insurance Innovations, Inc. (HIIQ) is our top-rated upgrade this week and it is a STRONG BUY. Our other picks are also STRONG BUY stocks with the exception of NOAH and EPR–which are BUY-rated. Ticker Company Name Market Price Valuation Last 12-M Return 1-M Forecast Return 1-Yr Forecast Return P/E Ratio Sector Name HIIQ HEALTH INS INN 16.8 12.56% 182.35% 1.19% 14.28% 14.08 Finance UCTT ULTRA CL...
The Reserve Bank of Australia left the interest rate unchanged at 1.50% as widely expected. And also the accompanying statement seems somewhat unchanged. While they do mention that a stronger A$ could complicate matters, this is the same text that we have seen beforehand. Among the positive notes: the economy is doing OK and stronger global growth is helping as well. Commodity prices are higher and this boosts the national income. The transition away from mining continues. Among the worries: in some areas, housing prices are rising “briskly” and this is eyed for financial stability. Low wage growth is certainly a worry. All in all, the p...
Oil prices remained fairly stable during Tuesday’s Asian session, with both Brent crude and U.S. WTI crude down 0.1 percent each. Brent crude traded at $55.94 per barrel, down 7 cents per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude traded at $53.17 per barrel, down 3 cents per barrel. Despite OPEC’s commitment to cut production and its members relative compliance, the U.S. International Energy Agency forecast U.S. shale output to increase by 1.4 barrels per day by 2022, a note which kept prices from rising. The IEA added that if the price of oil hits $80 per barrel, shale oil output could increase by 3 million barrels per day. Increasing needs and stabi...
Yuan Rates USDCNH Daily Prepared by Michael Boutros. USDCNH cleared a multi-week consolidate range last week with the rally breaking through down-trend resistance extending off the yearly high and the 61.8% extension of the advance off the yearly low at 6.8736. Note that the move was accompanied by a resistance trigger-break in momentum and keeps the focus higher while above confluence support at 6.8548/90 where the monthly open & the December low converge on basic trendline support extending off the May 2016 low & the 100-day moving average (bullish invalidation). Interim resistance is seen just higher at the 61.8% retracement of...