The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of the forex timepiece. Yet, each and every time the delta pushes positive there is the same analysis as if anyone was prevented from reviewing the history so as to very easily see the regularity by which all this happens. From the WSJ: China’s foreign-exchange reserves rose last month for the first time in eight mon...
That was one nasty market sell-off at the close today (comparatively speaking). Plenty of people were selling stocks, myself included. The biggest concern for me right now is that only 49% of stocks are trading above their 40-day moving average. That is with us only being about a week removed from having established all-time highs. So I booked some gains in some trades and cut a loss (albeit a small one) in another. I still have some long positions remaining but I also added SPXU to the portfolio to basically keep things neutral until I can see how this market wants to open up tomorrow. Trading My Watch List I’m thinking that this w...
For the 4th consecutive trading day stocks ended slightly lower or unchanged. After the March 1st break out day the major indexes are near the low of that day. Since then there has been Fed comments that took the probability of a March interest rate hike to 84%. Here’s what to expect the higher Fed Funds rate will mean for stocks, bonds and interest rates. The indexes being 1-2% off all time highs is not a sign of selling… yet Video Length – 00:08:35...
A huge fan of Game of Thrones, one of my favorite characters is Daenerys Targaryen, Mother of Dragons. After losing her husband and child, she helps hatch three dragons from their eggs. At times, although they regard her as their “Mother,” she struggles to maintain control over them. Much of the same can be said about the current market. We haven’t mentioned the Chinese Year of the Fire Rooster in a while. It’s ironical to me that the ancestral dinosaur of the rooster has been uprooted by its more sinister relative-a fire breathing dragon. Depending where one looks, one can either see loss or hatched eggs. Retail (XRT) suffered more...
BTL Group (BTLLF), a tiny bitcoin stock with a market cap of $50M, has been rising sharply in 2017. Today, the stock lost 21 percent. Is this bitcoin stock a buy or not? Fundamentally, bitcoin and blockchain stocks have a great outlook. As explained in our Bitcoin price forecast for 2017, usage and acceptance of Bitcoin as a form of money is growing significantly. Moreover, as this article suggests, blockchain, the technology supporting bitcoin, will be mainstream in 2022. So every bitcoin or blockchain company with a viable service has a great long term outlook. Investors could buy these companies at ridiculously low market capitalization...
The Chart of the Day belongs to Sinclair Broadcast Group (SBGI). I found the TV broadcasting stock by using Barchart to sort today’s Top Stocks to Own first for the most frequent new highs in the last month, then again for technical buy signals of 80% or better. Since the Trend spotter signaled a buy in 2/9 the stock gained 21.20%. Sinclair Broadcast Group is a diversified broadcasting company that owns or provides programming services pursuant to local marketing agreements to more television stations than any other commercial broadcasting group in the United States. The status of Barchart’s Opinion trading systems are liste...
My Perspective In the past, I have noted that when the metals complex is in a larger bullish posture, I will always look towards the more bullish of the patterns as my primary, because experience has taught me this market often leaves people behind with shallow retracements: “. . . based upon the larger degree perspective, with seeing 5 waves up from the 2015 lows, and then another 5 waves up from the December 2016 lows, I am on the hunt for the heart of a 3rd wave in this complex.When we are looking for a heart of a 3rd wave to take hold, they OFTEN do not provide much in the way of pullbacks.For that reason, I have always defaulted to a m...
Snap Inc. (SNAP) fell double digits Tuesday, marking two days of losses after two days of gains as investors and analysts grapple with how the newly-public social media company will confront mixed expectations and significant competition. NEW DATA SHOWS USER DECELERATION: Aegis Capital’s Victor Anthony, whose firm initiated Snap with a Hold rating and $22 target Thursday, argues today that user growth “remains an issue” for Snapchat. App tracking data suggests that daily actives “continued to decelerate” in January and February to just 3% growth versus last quarter’s 15%, the analyst says, adding that the f...
We live in a non-linear world that is almost always described in linear terms. Though Einstein supposedly said compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe, it rarely is appreciated for what the statement really means. And so the idea of record highs or even just positive numbers have been equated with positive outcomes, even though record highs and positive growth rates can be at times still associated with some of the worst. It may seem like a paradox, but that is only because of the linear frame of reference. The next update for the Financial Accounts of the United States Z1 (formerly Flow of Funds) is scheduled for tomo...