Background This year gold’s fortunes will be influenced by the actions of the Central Bankers and the Geo-Political chaos which is simmering in various parts of the world. We are all aware that there are many factors that influence the precious metals sector; however, today we will only look at these two as I believe they are the dominant factors. Central Bankers Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday referred to possible rate hikes being implemented sooner rather than later as economic conditions would appear to have improved. Also, note that inflation had popped above 2% for the first time in 2½ years which can be construed as an additional r...
Following January’s surge in employment (biggest gain in 7 months), February’s ADP print exploded higher to 298k (5 sigma above all expectations). This is the third biggest monthly employment gain of the expansion. It appears the ‘Trump Effect’ is the biggest driver as the ADP payroll surge was mostly due to a record surge in employment for goods-producing industries. Private sector employment surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000. 3rd best month of the recovery: This is 5 standard deviations above the 187k expectation&...
After political consolidation, China is ready to begin a broader implementation of structural reforms. That is vital to double per capita income in 2010-20. After President Xi assumed office in fall 2012, Chinese leadership has steadily moved toward more comprehensive structural reforms. As evidenced by the recent Two Sessions in Beijing, these reforms are about to move to a new level. In the coming years, the focus will move toward tougher, broader and deeper execution, which is vital for higher living standards in China. 13th Five-Year Plan policies Adopted in March 2016, China’s medium-term plan (2016-20) reflects policies, growth priori...
The latest United States job numbers are in and they are huge, seeing the economy adding 298,000 new jobs in February alone! This has massively blown out the market expectations of 190,000. Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute had the following to say; “February proved to be an incredibly strong month for employment with increases we have not seen in years.” So what does this mean? For years we have seen job reports such as these coming in, only to be disheartened by the fact that the jobs added were nothing to be celebrated at all, as they were low-paying jobs replacing high-paying, skille...
Maybe they benefited from divine intervention… or maybe they were just lucky. Either way, the students and staff of St. Francis High School in Mountain View, California must be pretty happy right now. In 2012 the school took a chance, investing $15,000 in a small, little-known app maker called Snapchat. Last week the school sold two-thirds of its shares for $24 million when the stock went public. I’m sure they’re still giving thanks. Other people took home some dough that day as well. The co-founders, Bobby Murphy and Evan Spiegel, both cashed out $272 million. Their remaining shares make them both members of the billionaire’s club. A...
Music streaming company Spotify has been thinking about its IPO for a while. A year ago, analysts were expecting it to take the plunge in 2017. But recent reports suggest that the company may be delaying the IPO again, as it works on improving its operations and financials. Photo Credit: Andrew Mager/Flickr.com Spotify’s Financials Stockholm-based Spotify was founded in 2006 by serial entrepreneur Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon. The two founders took two years to develop the streaming app, which was launched in 2008. Since its release, the app has seen rapid adoption. Spotify operates on a freemium model allowing users to listen to music ...
When it comes to momentum investing, everyone is always looking for a better way to implement a momentum-based stock selection strategy (the same goes for a value strategy). We highlight a few methods in our book, Quantitative Momentum, as well as on our blog. We recently came across a paper from 2006 that has an improvement on a baseline momentum investing strategy, titled “Firm-specific attributes and the cross-section of momentum.” The abstract is below: This paper identifies observable firm-specific attributes that drive momentum. We find that a firm’s revenues, costs, and growth options combine to determine the dynamics of it...
The GBP/JPY currency pair is a baffling one to watch. It spiked tremendously after the US presidential elections but has consolidated in a tight trading range as it retreats beneath its 50-day moving average, and hovers around its 200-day moving average. On Monday this week, The Dragon attempted to break out above the 140 level but found too much resistance there. A rally now seems an unlikely scenario for the GBP, however, a rise above 142 would bring plenty of bullish traders into the mix. The current support level appears to be holding at the 200-day moving average of 138.50. This level also happens to be what technical FX traders unders...
Many bitcoin aficionados are waiting with baited breath as the SEC is to announce by this Friday whether they will approve the first registered bitcoin ETF. This is not the make or break event that many think it is, though. As a matter of fact, if the ETF is denied and the bitcoin drops, I’ll consider it an opportunity. European Bitcoin Acceptance An ETF will allow institutions to flood into Bitcoin through registered vehicles. Whether the SEC approves the Winkelvoss twins ETF is beside the point, institutions interest is already sparked and the money will come in anyway. Bitstamp, one of the world’s largest bitcoin exchanges, ...
Herbalife Ltd/ (NYSE:HLF) short case written from Quoth the Raven @QTRResearch Quoth the Raven Research continues to believe Herbalife is a strong sell with downside of more than 46.3% before the end of 2017 and further downside in following quarters The potential impact of a coming nation-wide documentary has been significantly underestimated and may cause an unprecedented public relations nightmare for the company that it may permanently have trouble recovering from For comparison, Blackfish, a similar style of critical documentary, drove SeaWorld’s stock price down 60% leading up to its release. A critical nationwide 60 Minutes expose o...