The headlines say wholesale sales were down month-over-month with inventory levels up remaining at levels associated with recessions. Our analysis shows significant improvement of the 3 month averages and our monthly analysis shows significant acceleration.. Analyst Opinion of this month’s Wholesale Sales The headlines said this sector declined this month. The growth this month was in durables with non-duirables decelerating. Overally, I believe the rolling averages tell the real story – and they improved this month. There is an obvious growth trendline in wholesale – and the data set is now showing normal growth for times o...
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting today is quite likely to pass off as a non-event as some of the major Eurozone member nations gear up for elections that could potentially unsettle the current status quo. The European Central Bank is unlikely to add further to the turmoil especially with no major reasons to justify any policy changes. On the contrary, the ECB governing council is expected to deliberate on the recent string of inflation numbers which have been steadily rising. Despite headline inflation rising to 2% in February (flash estimates), core inflation figures have remained stubbornly anchored to 0.9% and hasn’t...
The dollar held steady during Thursday’s Asian session after strong U.S. jobs data all but confirmed the likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike next week. Oil prices plummeted 5 percent on Wednesday to their lowest prices of 2017 as reports confirmed that U.S. crude inventories hit record highs. U.S. production now stands at 9.1 million barrels per day. The market couldn’t rebound from these losses on Thursday morning, though it did achieve small gains, with Brent crude rising 43 cents to $53.54 per barrel and U.S. WTI crude hitting $50.588 per barrel, a 30 cent recovery. $50 is an important psychological level for WTI as well as a key in...
Short term Elliottwave view in Crude Oil (CL_F) suggests that the instrument is currently correcting cycle from the 11/14/2016 low (42.21) in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the next leg higher. A revised view suggests the decline starting from 1/3 high (55.24) is unfolding as a flat Elliott Wave structure where Minor wave A ended at 50.71 and Minor wave B ended at 54.94. Minor wave C is in progress and subdivided as 5 waves diagonal where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 52.54, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 53.8, and Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 50.05. A bounce in Minute wave ((iv)) is expected now followed by another low in Minute wave ((v)) towar...
For months now we’ve talked about the retail bubble and the effects of its implosion on mall owners across the country (see “America’s Desperate Mall Owners Turn To Grocers, Doctors & High Schools To Fill Empty Space” and “Pittsburgh Mall Once Worth $190 Million Sells For $100” for a sample of the carnage). Now, after a spate of retail bankruptcies struck several popular mall outlets including Aéropostale, Pacific Sun and American Apparel, Richard Hayne, CEO of Urban Outfitters, is finally willing to admit what most of us have known for some time now, namely that the entire U.S. retail space is in th...
Dividend investors love utilities. That’s not surprising. These companies usually provide solid yields and stable dividends. This is despite the fact that SafetyNet Pro ranks most utilities a C or lower. And there’s a simple reason for that… Cash flow is key to dividend safety. Utilities use debt to finance operations and dividends. So their cash flows are poor. It’s something to think about if interest rates move significantly higher… Steady dividend payers may not be able to make such large payouts if their financing costs are higher. Let’s take a look at a utility requested by a Wealthy Retirement reader… PPL Corp. (NYSE...
Multiple Chinese ministers made remarks at press conferences of the annual National People’s Congress. Here are the highlights and how they could impact China’s economy and financial markets. China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)Chairman Liu Shiyu: “Stabilizing markets, strengthening regulations and progressing in reforms were the regulator’s key tasks in 2016.” This is likely continue to be the case in 2017. The Chairman emphasized the importance of market stability a couple of times in the Q&A session. Avoiding market chaos, such as what was seen in January 2016, is crucial for implementing any reform on Chinese ca...
Previously, in looking at the total market cap of the new homes sold in the United States, we found that the market for new homes in the U.S. began to noticeably decelerate after September 2016. Since market capitalization is the product of both new home sale prices and the quantity of new home sales, to find out why that outcome is happening, we first looked at the trailing twelve month average of new home sale prices. The following chart shows the most recent major trends in median new home sale prices in the period from July 2012 through January 2017. In this chart, we see that after having risen at a relatively slow pace in the months f...
GBP/USD 4 hour The GBP/USD remains in a downtrend as long as price stays in the bearish channel (red lines). Price is moving towards the Fibonacci targets of wave 5 and wave 3. A bearish continuation could see price move towards 1.20 which is a psychological round level, previous bottom (green) and 161.8% Fibonacci target. 1 hour If the GBP/USD breaks below the support trend line (blue) we could see price continue with wave 5 (pink) of wave 3 (green). A break above the resistance line (red) would most likely not change the downtrend as long as price stays below horizontal resistance levels (orange). EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD is in a consolid...
Thursday Market Commentary – March 09, 2017 Stocks Sell Near-Term – Update: Near-term downtrend remains intact. Look for 5% to 7% correction from the near-term highs on March 01 now in the major indexes. US Dollar Index Hold to Buy Near-Term – Near-term forecast remains the same from Tuesday. The possibility exists for a decline in the USD index now, but this is not quite clear enough to give a sell recommendation yet, if at all. The next few trading days might give more clues to the forecast. Currently the bullish forecast remains the same. The USD index is still forecasted higher to 102.95 to 103.82 or higher near-t...