JPY (USD/JPY) made a new high above last Friday’s peak and now seems to be pulling back. Move up from 113.53 ((x)) low could be viewed as a 5 swing Leading Diagonal Elliott Wave structure. There is RSI divergence (not showing) between red wave iii and blue (a) which further supports the idea of JPY move up from 113.53 low being a diagonal structure. As per Elliott Wave theory, after a 5 wave move up or diagonal structure higher completes, pair should make a corrective pull back before rallying again. Decline from 114.93 -114.48 could be viewed as just the first leg of proposed wave (b) pull back. As current bounce stays below 114.93, p...
Thanks to a surge in prices from Canada and Asia Near East, US Import Prices soared more than expected in February. The 4.6% rise is the highest since February 2012, driven by a 40.5% surge year-over-year in Fuels and lubricants. Notably US import prices from Mexico fell 0.3% YoY....
After the ECB left its policy unchanged, we cover the bigger event: the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi. Follow the live video coverage of the event that moves EUR/USD. Live Coverage Follow the live coverage with Valeria Bednarik, Mauricio Carrillo and myself: ...
Well goddammit I told you so. I don’t how many times I’ve said that oil will almost invariably head lower (and maybe sharply lower) once everyone gets sick and tired of waiting around for something that, to be brutally honest with you, isn’t f**king coming. The whole production cut agreement was a farce from the get-go because you can’t really call something a “cut” when you ramped up production going into it. That is, if the baseline from which you’re cutting is elevated relative to recent history, well then you aren’t really “cutting”, are you? Here’s a visual reminder of what the setup was: (Bloomberg) So ironically, ...
They took the oil and took it down, a stunning build and it turn straight down. When you count the barrels and the oil drilled, a landslide brought it down. A massive crude oil build rocked the oil market in what could be a major downside breakdown that is raising the stakes for OPEC and U.S. shale producers. Will it be cut back or face prices falling even further. Call it a landslide if you will, as record long positions in oil ran for their lives and analysts like me are scratching their head to try to figure out how they did not see this historic and record breaking increase in weekly crude oil supply. No one expected the massive 11.6-mi...
Although OPEC is still walking around triumphantly as members keep to their output cut commitments, American shale production has reemerged as a force to be reckoned with as evidenced by the latest bit of inventory data. This is yet another shred of proof that the global inventory glut that has built up over the last few years is still showing no signs of easing, despite the dramatic steps taken to reduce overflowing stockpiles.The latest evidence of this developments comes amid a ninth straight week of inventory additions in the United States. With US crude oil stockpiles reaching a new record alongside continually climbing production, the s...
GBP/USD: The pair continues to face further weakness following more declines on Wednesday. Support lies at the 1.2150 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.2100 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2050 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.2000 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.2250 level with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.2300 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.2350 level followed by the 1.2300 level. On the whole, GBP/USD continues to face downside threats but with caution....
S&P 500 The S&P 500 fell during the session on Wednesday, but we continue to find support near the 2350 handle. Because of this, I have no interest in shorting this market and I see a couple of moving average is that are coming into play every time we dip. The 20-day exponential moving average, pictured in green on my chart, continues to be reliable, and of course the 50-day exponential moving average is one that a lot of longer-term traders follow anyway. Because of this, I’m looking for bounces or supportive candle that I can take advantage of. I believe that the 2300 level below is massively supportive, and the 2400 level above i...
Moments ago the ECB kept all three rates on hold, however in a dovish addition, it kept its current forward guidance which some analysts had expected may be scrapped, by noting that “the Governing Council continues to expect the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time, and well past the horizon of the net asset purchases.” As a result, the EUR/USD has sign a modest drop on the announcement while Bunds futures gained once algos noticed that contrary to some expectations, the forward guidance would remain. Full statement below: At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the E...