After opening the day strong, share markets in India witnessed selling and are trading marginally above the dotted line. Sectoral indices are trading on a mixed note with stocks in the consumer durables and telecom sector leading the gains, while stocks in the oil & gas and metals sectors are trading in the red. The BSE Sensex is trading up by 52 points (up 0.2%), and the NSE Nifty is trading up by 16 points (up 0.2%). Meanwhile, the BSE Mid Cap index is trading flat, while the BSE Small Cap index is trading up by 0.4% The rupee is trading at 66.66 to the US$. In news from stocks in the metals sector, India’s larg...
The dollar is poised to close the week on strong gains as markets wait for NFP later today. The general consensus is that unless the NFP data is disastrous, the FED will proceed with a rate hike later in March. Strong ADP emnicoployment on Wednesday though indicate that NFP today should be in line with expectations of 190k jobs created. Today it has posted new 6 week highs against the JPY, pushing the pair up to 115.44, a level not seen since 19th oh January. The EUR was up 0.2 percent at $1.0594, but still down 0.3% for the week. Despite no change in the policy rate and the QE program, the EUR gained as President Mario Draghi added some...
AT40 = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)AT200 = 58.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAsVIX = 12.3 (volatility index)Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary From a technical perspective, my last “Above the 40” post made as detailed a case as I can make to describe the erosion of the stock market’s foundations. Today, that erosion expressed itself in a new bearish divergence that I find remarkable. (The latest bearish divergence was invalidated by the S&P 500’s big mid-February breakout). The S&P 500 (SPY) bounced perfectly off support at its uptrending 20-...
EUR/USD managed to gain some ground after Draghi removed some urgency. What does this mean for the euro? Here are three opinions: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: EUR: Here Is The Next Step From The ECB After the ‘Hawkish Twist’ – Danske The ECB kept all policy measures unchanged at today’s meeting, and President Draghi had a hawkish tone during the Q&A session as he said the Governing Council discussed whether to remove the ‘lower levels’ from the forward guidance on policy rates, notes Danske Bank Markets. “In our view, a next step from the ECB when moving in a less dovish monetary policy direction is to remove ...
Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom. Image via World Economic Forum The British Finance Minster, Philip Hammond delivered his spring budget on Wednesday, marking the last budget release before the UK government begins the Brexit talks with the EU. Britain’s growth forecasts for the economy this year was raised to 2% but revised lower over the next three years, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). The upward revision to this year’s economic growth followed a pattern in the recent UK data which has been consistently revised higher although the post-Brexit scenario remains gloomy. Growth fore...
USD/JPY 4 hour The USD/JPY broke above the resistance top (dotted red) of the wave 1 (blue), which could start the wave 3 (brown) of wave 3 (blue). Price needs to reach at least the 161.8% Fibonacci target before the wave 3 can be confirmed. 1 hour The USD/JPY keeps pushing with higher highs and price seems to be extending the wave 5 (orange) with 5 internal waves (magenta/pink). Once the wave 3 (magenta) is completed, then a corrective chart pattern such as a bull flag or contracting triangle must emerge to confirm wave 4 (magenta). A break of that pattern could lead to a wave 5 (magenta) of wave 5 (orange). EUR/USD 4 hour The EUR/USD indeed...
In the business world things are constantly changing, in particular, the way we pay electronically for goods and services. I am often asked by those near retirement age about the concept and usage of the world’s first digital currency: Bitcoin. It’s truly a fascinating concept and yet a dangerous one since there is no telling what the long term implications could mean. Some of you may still be scratching your heads wondering what I’m talking about, and that’s perfectly okay. I’m STILL in the process of learning about Bitcoin and what it can do and is doing. So today I thought I would give you a brief introducti...
The Fed is a big believer in consumer confidence numbers. I never understood why because I never could see a strong correlation between confidence and spending. There is a strong correlation, but it isn’t spending habits. John Hussman provides the answer below. Multi-year highs in consumer confidence are less a sign of forthcoming consumer spending as a sign of forthcoming investor losses. pic.twitter.com/2jCJYt8T4Q — John P. Hussman (@hussmanjp) March 9, 2017 Let’s break out that chart with some vertical bars to better indicate what consumer confidence really measures. ...
The Quality factor completed a six-week climb to the top of the factor rankings, knocking Value down to sixth place in the process. Financials and Technology sit atop the sector rankings, as Telecom falls to the bottom. Not much change from a global perspective, with Latin America still at the helm and Canada relegated to the basement. Sectors: The Vanguard Financials ETF (VFH) leads the Sector Benchmark ETFs again today, just as it has for 17 of the past 19 weeks. It has gained 23.9% since the U.S. election and 5.5% year to date. Vanguard Information Technology (VGT) is in second place for a fifth week and has been a steady climber for ab...
The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S&P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a 5% correction which hasn’t happened in many months. The two negative catalysts are a crash in oil prices and a delay in the passing of the GOP’s pro-growth legislation. On Thursday, the price of WTI oil was down about 2% to $49.28 as it exits the range of the low $50s which it has been in all year. The GOP’s proposals aren’t going to be ...